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Did Doug Fister just leap a plateau?, 2

=== Fister's Plus Fastball ===

Fister's heater is a plus pitch in its own right.

You heard Dr. D whine all through 2010 about Fister leading the league* in FB percentage thrown, but as much pressure as the catchers put on that 88 heater, it was the gift that kept on giving.  It still had an excellent +0.7 runs / 100 value.

Fister's fastball is "plus" because of his supreme command, its downward plane, and all that.  But just recently we've discovered that tall, overhand pitchers like Fister add an apparent 4-8 mph (!) to their heaters because of their release points and angles.  Read this:  The Best Optical Illusion in Baseball.

Ian Snell threw 93 and got smashed because, at his low release point and with his short stride, he threw an effective 88.  Fister's the opposite.  88-89 from him (or Chris Young, or Jeff Neimann, a BABVA roto claim) is equal to 93 from another pitcher.

..........

Don Wakamatsu brilliantly realized, very early, that Doug Fister's fastball was FAR better than its 88 gun reading suggested.  He mentioned its angle and location.  He was right.  What he seems not to have realized was the 88 vs 93 optical illusion.  (Obviously the M's didn't realize this vis-a-vis Snell.)

So, no wonder that the Tigers were defending Fister's FB as though it were David Aardsma's.  And no wonder that when he finally starts changing speed off it, they're in trouble.

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=== The Change ===

We almost forget that Fister got to the bigs on his parachute change.  His lifetime run value on it is 1.7 runs saved per 100 changeups thrown, making it easily a "plus" ML pitch.

Unfortunately, Fister only threw it 14% of the time last year, because Rob Johnson and Adam Moore were infatuated with watching Doogie move his FB all around the strike zone wherever they held their mitts.

But now come on.  That's THREE real good pitches?  Orel Hershiser said, "command two pitches, win.  Command three pitches, dominate."

If Doug Fister now has three BTA (better than average) pitches, and if Miguel Olivo knows how to use them -- as so far he seems to -- then Fister is shortly going to become a ver well-known major leaguer.

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=== Cinnamon Latte Dept. ===

A chef once argued with me that coffee with cream was a "superior" beverage to plain black coffee.

I thought he was being a gomer, but suddenly he brought me up to speed on the fact that more complex flavors hold one's interest better over the long term.  Coffee with cream is a richer, more complex flavor, he pointed out.

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In 2010, Doug Fister was pitching a verrrrrrrrry simple game.  Hitters didn't strike out because they had very few variations to defend.

In 2011, hitters have had a vastly more complex game to deal with.  And it is showing in those curve ball results.  C'mon.  19 of 23 strikes?  Not one hit into fair territory?

Now all of a sudden he comes back fastball and the ball is by them, for some strange reason...

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=== Strikeouts ===

It's not often that one game has overthrown my evaluation of a pitcher like Tuesday's just did.  But Doug Fister, add 25 change curve auto-strikes a game, now that is a different subject.

Are the Mariners willing to view Fister as an Aaron Sele -- with a better fastball, and add a changeup?  We hope so.

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No matter how good a pitcher looks, he's not going to be an impact pitcher at 4 strikeouts per ballgame.  Fister's impact is firmly capped by his strikeout rate.

But!  With Miguel Olivo calling for that yellow hammer, Doug Fister has now fanned 12 hitters in his last 13 innings.  And it looks to me like not much of an accident.

I don't say that Doogie is going to fan 8 men per game, Greg Maddux style.  But if he fans 6, he is going to make a lot of money in this game.  'Cause that dude can pitch.

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Eyes slideways,

Dr D


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