Felix on Pace for 39 Starts; M's Censor All 3-Run Innings
=== SIZZLERS ===
JACK CUST has a .500 OBP the last week -- 4 hits (one double off the Green Monster), a HBP, and 5 walks in 20 plate appearances.
For all that, his SLG is a measly .367 this week. His type of player -- the .375 OBP with no wheels and no power and no defense -- sets the lower boundary of what OBP alone is worth. Not much: his runs created per 27 outs is 3.5 on the year. It's designated hitter, not designated walker-and-trot-back-to-the-dugout-from-second-base'r.
On any other team, let's say the Oakland A's, he'd be waived. On this one, he has helped the ballclub. Most of the other hitters have pitchers' lines.
There is exactly one acceptable Smoak pun out there: Geoff Baker's "Smoak and Mirrors."
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THE ENTIRE PITCHING STAFF would have suffered from being exchanged for twelve Roy Halladays. Its collective ERA was certainly lower this week, than Halladay's normal ERA ever is.
20 total runs allowed in 10 games? It's one thing to go on a tear -- a couple games here, a couple games there, 10 straight batters retired over in another place. It's another thing when you never even have a bad inning any more.
In the last 10 games -- 88 innings or so -- the M's have given up four "big" innings. Each of those innings were 2-run innings.
They haven't yielded a 3-run inning in this entire 10-game streak. Somebody who interns for the M's should chase down the last time the M's, or any AL team, went 10 games without yielding a 3-run inning.
Sudden thought. Did the M's get any 3-run innings the last week? Let's replace "Ready To Play" with "Death By Dental Floss."
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KING FELIX went to 4-2, matching Pineda's record exactly. Both are on pace for 20 wins, although I was a little taken aback when the mainframe spit out 29-3, 1.79 as Felix' 50th-percentile outcome.
You noticed that the Mariners have taken to moving Felix up in the rotation every time there's an off day? He has started 8 of their 33 games, putting him on pace for ... wait for it .... 39 starts. :- )
If an Opening Day starter goes in rotation all year perfectly, he gets 32-33 starts. The Braves used to get 34, 35, even 36 starts out of Maddux and Glavine, IIRC. Here, check out the GS column for their 1996 ballclub...
I don't know of any SP who started more than 36 games in recent years, but hopefully the M's will make a run at it. Anybody for 37 starts out of Felix?
Sorry bout dat Dunn-Felix swap dere, Justin. Could make it up to you with a Ka'aihue deal, tho...
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Now find a way to pitch Felix on short rest and Bedar' on long rest. Herzog used to do that within one five-man rotation.
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STARS & SCRUBS - When the Steelers owned football in the 1970's, some writer said, "Of Pittsburgh's team, the heart is the defense.
"Of Pittsburgh's defense, the heart is the line.
"Of Pittsburgh's line, the heart is Mean Joe Greene."
The 1970's Steelers hatched out of the egg when Chuck Noll drafted Joe Greene.
The moral of the story? Along with Felix, of course, the heart of the 2011 M's season turns out to be Pineda and Bedard. These two men create the possibility that the 2011 Mariners are dangerous. ... "hot" is fine, "dangerous" another. This moment brought to you by Stars & Scrubs.
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JUSTIN SMOAK just missed another home run on Friday, hooking a 400-footer about two feet foul down the line. None his 5 actual homers were cheap, according to HitTracker. He could easily have 9-10 homers right now.
Hey, did you know that Smoak's EYE is 2:6 the last week? He's opening up his swing. He's going for the jack a lot.
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=== FIZZLERS ===
Ryan Langerhans has fanned 7 times in his last 15 AB's and is .133/.133/.133.
Michael Saunders has fanned 6 times in his last 20 AB's and is .050/.095/.050. I feel deeply sorry for him.
Jack Wilson is .235/.222/.235 this week, including Friday. His OPS+ on the year is 62.
Brendan Ryan is .188/.188/.313 this week, with an OPS+ on the year of 53.
Miguel Olivo is .095/.125/.095 this week.
All five of these guys play every single day, except Langerhans. Ryan has played 6 of the last 6 games, Wilson has played 5 of the last 6 -- and LRod has played 2 of the last 6 games, one as a medical sub.
Here, let's chart them in terms of RC/27 on the season. This is what a lineup full of 9 Player X's would score:
- 2.4 - Ryan (2011 season)
- 2.6 - Wilson
- 2.2 - Saunders
- 2.2 - Olivo
- (2.7 - Figgins)
Okay, your major gives you 10 credits' mandatory automatic-out study. Why do you take 10 more elective credits in auto-outs? Haven't you paid sufficient homage to glovework with the first two terrible hitters?
When a guy plays a risky move in chess, we ask him, "If you had this situation in every game, would you play the same move every time?" Sometimes this instantly makes it obvious that the move should never have been played.
Anybody want to find a historical playoff team that had 4 hitters like these in the same lineup?
I do not like the fact that four terrible hitters play together, in the same lineup. The pressure will continue to build to fix this unnatural situation.
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By the way, if I read the box right, Dustin Ackley hit an HR in the second consecutive game. He's got 25 walks against 20 strikeouts. How much money would Super Two arb cost the M's again?
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Cheerio,
Dr D
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