Cross Training - Carlos Peguero and Keeping Weight Underside
=== CrossTrainer Dept. ===
In poker, an amateur bets into a pot and then a pro might watch to see .... what % of the time the bettor stares at his opponents, vs. keeping his gaze "soft" and down.
If his gaze is soft and away 70% of the time, the bettor's drawing him in, not wanting to scare the caller away from the big hand...
It's not genius. It's just something the card player is used to looking for.
.
In basketball, the ball goes into the low post and the coach checks to see where the defender's feet are. Has he covered the drop step?
Checking the defender's feet isn't genius. It's just something that basketball players are used to looking for.
.
In aikido, tori makes a convincing attack move and the sensei watches the defender's CG, his belly button, the knot on his belt. If it freezes or retreats, no kyu test for you, babe.
If that CG sinks and moves off the attack line -- reflexively -- that's a different subject. We are talking about a man who can defend himself.
It's not genius. It's just something that aikidoka are used to looking at - the way that a person's CG reacts to an unexpected situation.
.
Carlos Peguero hit a screaming line drive that tore the shortstop's glove off. He hit a thunderous double off the airport wall, and he socked another single completely aside from the other two blasts.
The results were fine, but Peguero's center of gravity was what was special. Go play the tapes again and you'll see Peguero sinking his weight reflexively when he gets a pitch he doesn't recognize.
He sinks the weight, and he moves it around the batter's box with remarkable agility. On the SS line drive and the double, he sunk his CG and then he moved it to the ball outside. He's not connecting the barrel of the bat to the pitch; he's connecting HIMSELF to the pitch.
.
Here's the video of his 400-foot double. At the end of the vid, you have a side angle in slo-mo -- check Peguero's belt buckle against the roof of the dugout.
You might think, watching him swing, that he was digging out a shin-high pitch. Nope. The ball was thigh-high. Rather than reaching for it, he dipped his back knee and moved over to where the ball was.
It's not an isolated incident. Peguero goes and gets the pitch.
Some hitters sort of absorb the incoming ball into their CG's like an amoeba; others merely stand there and reach for the ball with their arms.
All pro hitters would tell you that they want to have heavy legs rooted into the ground -- in Japan (any sport!) they say, "keep weight underside." But some hitters accomplish this much more than others do. Carlos Peguero has exceptional CG action, period.
Griffey and Smoak have the exceptional CG action and weight-sink, which is why they bob up when finishing a home run.
.
=== My Bad, Dept. ===
You'll remember that I didn't think that Peguero had solved AAA, and that I thought he was a non-issue his first trip up.
Tell you what. Carlos Peguero is looking like 50-60 HIT ability right now, and with 70-80 power that is one interesting prospect...
We didn't take Peguero seriously enough.
.........
Look. We're not saying that Peguero is the next Ryan Howard, though there are interesting similarities there: Ryan Howard's b-ref minors card and Carlos Peguero's b-ref minors card.
Similarities being:
- Age 22 - both were solid-good hitters in class A
- Age 23 - both solid-good in A+ vs AA
- Age 24 - both started realizing their huge power potential
- Huge, "cheeseburger power" left hand hitters
- Both around 600 strikeouts in 500 minors games
- Both with wonderful wrist hinge & torque...
- Which left everybody thinking they swung way too big...
- But both with remarkable quickness and HIT ability
Howard's defining characteristic, coming up, was that he was an intersection of Ackley/Ichiro wrist hinge with Adam Dunn size. Peguero also does this.
...........
Am not comparing Peguero to Howard for talent level. But the fact is, if you set a list of check marks, Peguero is checking them all off.
The man is quick with the bat. He gets a long look at the ball.
He hits offspeed pitches - most of his XBH's have been off ML breaking balls.
He covers the strike zone inside and out, and goes three directions with his best shots. He's light on his feet, has body control, has the Winfield / Sexson, Tony Clark type leverage on the ball.
His power is so massive that he can swing naturally, without muscling up and hit scary missiles all over the place.
..........
The sabermetric complaint on Peguero was K rate and EYE ratio. The tools scouting, though, confirms that the kid can hit.
Peguero has been striking out because he's ambitious, not because he has a problem covering the ball.
.
=== Hedging Your Bets ===
If you're a Peguero skeptic -- as I basically am; we're just being frank about the check marks here --
If you're a skeptic, even you won't begrudge Peguero a Tony Clark comparison. Here is Clark's b-ref.com minors card. They're comparable, though Tony struck out a bit less than Peguero, and also developed a bit more slowly than Peguero has so far.
Clark was one of those guys who started BB'ing much MORE in the majors. ML pitchers aren't stupid.
Clark had 3-4 years as a 30 homer, 100 RBI man and remained an exciting role-playing slugger his whole life.
.
=== Coefficient of Confidence Dept. ===
Low.
SSI doesn't have Peguero figured out.
I love his CG, his connection to the pitch, his agility in the box, his surprising HIT ability and his obvious PWR ability.
He's a neat prospect, 's all. I'd commit to finding out who he is, if I were the M's. He's definitely sold me that far.
.
=== Dr's Diagnosis ===
If Carlos Peguero is a Texas Ranger right now and I'm an M's fan?
I'm not worried, exactly, but I'm wary. I'm concerned that Peguero has a good 25%, 30% shot to pull a Nelson Cruz and darkhorse his way into a .500+ SLG in the majors. At some time in the next 30 day to 3 years.
In SSI's world, Carlos Peguero has quickly gone from "check him next year maybe" to "exciting ML prospect." I wouldn't want to be playing first with him up.
For sure the M's need to get a good look at Peguero, now that he's exceeded expectations. You're talking about a guy with a decent shot at becoming Tony Clark, and a long shot at upside past that.
.
My $0.02,
Dr D