Carlos Beltran I/O - Output
=== OUTPUT ===
Had the Mariners been in the battle, would you have swapped Taijuan Walker for two months' worth of a 300/400/500 batter?
For those fans who enjoy learning about baseball, this is a show-stopping cognitive dissonance. It's the Monolith appearing amongst the monkeys, an event far beyond our comprehension. And it is exactly those occasions that give us the opportunity to learn.
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At Fangraphs, what they do there is --- > figure out ways for teams to pile up club control of resources.
This talent pyramid, at Fangraphs, is calculated irrespective of individual seasons. That is, Doug Fister's value is calculated by adding his WAR and subtracting his salaries across the next five seasons, totaled. The I/O outcomes of individual seasons -- and the outcomes of pennant races -- are completely irrelevant in this process.
Sabermetricians assume -- on their weblogs, not from their seats in the ballparks -- that individual pennants are decided mainly by luck, and are therefore mainly irrelevant. (Early on, somebody shrugged and figured, the most talent wins pennants. But that orientation is long lost in the shadowy tunnels of history.)
No, this premise is not the right one. Pennants are not worth nothing.
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Major league GM's -- armed with much more inside info, including business considerations! -- weight this year's pennant farrrrrrrrr more heavily than sabes do.
That is your light bulb, gentlemen. Pull the dangle chain on it if you care to. Leave it dark if you care to. It's up to us, what we know and of what we wish to remain ignorant.
GM's don't believe that postseasons are irrelevant rolls of dice. They believe that winning in the postseason is hugely important, and that winning in the postseason is (somewhat) within their control.
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Beltran's trade was not isolated.
(1) Giving up Justin Smoak plus, for Cliff Lee, was far more egregious. (2) Giving up Adam Jones plus, for two+ years (not two months) of Erik Bedard was far less egregious. (3) The Cards just gave up a whale of a lot of cheap value in Colby Rasmus, for what? For two months of a #2-3 starter, and a couple of fungible relief pitchers.
If you're going to keep comparing Net Values on young players, as in this calculation, you're going to need a "Cosmological Constant" that adjusts WAR for [Stars & Scrubs Impact on Playoffs]. There isn't any question about that.
GM's place high values on veteran impact stars. Super high!
How high? Carlos Beltran's +1.5 WAR, plus October, is deemed more important than Zach Wheeler's potential +20 cheap WAR. You're talking a "field premium" on a scale of 10:1 here.
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It doesn't do any good to just say "the GM's are wrong." What is WAR, anyway? It's based on the free agent contracts paid by --- > GM's.
If the GM's are wrong, WAR is wrong to start with, because WAR itself is merely a description of what GM's decide to do in the free agent market. WAR captures December GM decisions, but not July GM decisions....
Hey, *I* wouldn't have traded Taijuan Walker for two months of Carlos Beltran, and I'm Mr. Now. I wouldn't have dreamed of approving that trade, no way no how. And yet the light bulb suddenly comes on. GM's all over the country make those trades. Routinely.
The monolith, Taijan Walker for a decent rental bat, stands there in its 1x4x9 glory. It's not going anywhere. We figure it out or we don't.
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30 General Managers value this year's pennant more than sabermetricians do. And by a factor of 5x or 10x, gentlemen.
General Managers value pennants two or three times more than I do. That's an exciting revelation.
And oh by the way. Therefore, Erik Bedard, and Doug Fister, and Jason Vargas, and Brandon League, are worth a lot more than fans think they are.
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Cheerio,
Dr D