Casper Wells' SLG = .527 (part 3)
=== Ribbie Men ===
Other comps for Wells, if he were to jell as a .260, 30-homer type: the 1980's Jays' star Jesse Barfield, the 1990's Rangers third baseman Dean Palmer and, at the extreme, check out Jim Rice's EYE in his first two years.
BB's increase as respect increases. Wells' BB will increase as the HR's pile up.
There is a very great difference between a sabermetric rule of thumb and an inviolable law of physics. "Most .300 hitters have EYE's above 0.70" simply does not carry the same authority as "Matter and energy can be neither created nor destroyed."
If you find yourself feeling uncomfortably bigoted against all hitters who run 0.25 EYEs, study the long-term career arc of Giants' hero Matt Williams. Or Joe Carter. Or a hundred other RBI men.
The avant-garde fan has (1) pooh-pooh'ed RBI and (2) swooned over EYE/UZR, and the results have not been all that pretty ... right now, we're all a bit tired of Chone Figgins' BB's and UZR. Dr. D is here to prescribe 30 homers and you are welcome to call him in the morning.
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=== Stock Grade: UP ===
The big takeaway, from Wells' month .333/.410/.667 month in Safeco, is that Casper Wells' power plays in Safeco. Get that straight!
So did Sexson's. Richie's first two years here, he slugged 39 and 34 homers, driving in 121 and 107 runs.
Had you told us, the day of the Fister trade, that Wells' homers would easily overmatch Safeco Field, the trade woulda looked a little different.
Day of trade, SSI guesstimated 50-50 for Wells to become a fulltime AL regular. Now it's got to be 70%. And the chance at posting a few Sexson, Barfield, Palmer seasons has got to be 25% or more.
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Wells' stats look fab right now, partly because he is currently on an HR tear -- what is it, 5 HR's in 7 games or something. But then again, does Wells have to slug every tick of .527 in order to help the ballclub?
He just has to be a legit HR man. Right now, anyway, James Shields is convinced that he is.
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Wells is not an established AL star. But he's got a whale of a great shot to become one, at least a minor star. And if he's Richie Sexson in CF, or LF-GG, then he's going to bank some serious jack.
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BABVA,
Dr D