Batted-Ball MPH: The M's Flamethrowers
...............
Q. Okay, what is the good news and bad news for the hometown nine?
A. For one thing, be aware that you're about to see the Seattle Mariners' defense get a lot better. They are migrating from a staff full of Jarrod Washburns into a staff full of Michael Pinedas.
We have discovered the existence of pitchers' batted-MPH skill -- and we have discovered which pitchers have it, discovered that pitchers with high K/PA allow low MPH in play. James Paxton, Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker are even more valuable after Fast's article than they were before it.
..........
Notice that Michael Pineda's BABIP was absurdly low last year, .258. He has two, maybe two point five, of the three weapons used to induce weak swings. He's got a 97 mph fastball. That cuts your BABIP from .300 to maybe .285, judging by Nolan Ryan.
Secondly, he has one of the most deceptive offspeed pitches in baseball. The arm action on his power slider is as good as any in baseball. That cuts his BABIP again.
That's two of the three. The third, we'll give him a half credit: Pineda's command is also obviously plus. We'll withhold full credit because his velo and change-speed are the best in the game. Plus is one thing; plus-plus-plus is another.
.......
Look, gentlemen, when Pineda hits the black at 96 mph, they are not going to be able to take a 1-wood backswing and square the ball up.
The pre-2011 skepticism against Pineda was mistaken; the pre-2012 skepticism against Pineda (the league will catch up to him!?) is going to be just as mistaken. Pineda is going to fan 9 per game, walk 2, and give up weak contact.
Pinedas and Hultzes and Paxes, oh my. What of the rest of the staff? ....