POTD Hanley Ramirez: No Can Do
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Q. So he just had an unlucky BABIP in 2011, right? Figure him for a 50% bounceback -- to 2010 -- and call it a day?
A. He had an unlucky BABIP in 2011, wrong.
Ramirez is taking a big leg kick, is loading the bat heavy, then letting the bat go and ... there is just nothing there. He looks like he's swinging through water.
The bat speed is down, the swing length is up, there is just no explosiveness or quickness. It's as though he'd lost some of his physical gifts. Oh, wait...
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Q. That's a tools-scout call or a saber call?
A. It's an eyesight call that is 101% backed by the component stats. Thusly:
1. Ramirez' productivity is up vs cutter-speed fastballs, and way down vs real fastballs and way down when they pull the string on a changeup. There's the slider-speed bat.
2. The pitch splits against him are exactly the same as they've always been, except the FB velo is up. Word is out: can't handle good velo. Here it is, kid, hit it. And he doesn't.
3. His popups are way up, as he's behind pitches he used to cream. His GB percentage is up and he pulls the ball more weakly and can't really drive pitches he used to. His ISO of course is through the floor and his BABIP is a catastrophe.
Sorry, kid. Call me when you get over the flu. Which will be never.
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Q. What if he did bounce back to 2010 levels?
A. If you just joined us, here are Hanley's three levels of performance:
| 2011 | .240 / .330 / .380 |
| 2010 |
.300 / .375 / .475 |
| 2009-06 | .320 / .400 / .550 |
So the fans' hope is for him to get back to 2010, at which point he'd be a 4-WAR player, but certainly not the 7-WAR monster that he was in his early 20's.
It sez here at SSI that the odds are with the house. I'd bet 2:1 against Ramirez bouncing back even to 2010.
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Q. Leaving his ROI at what?
A. His contract calls for $15-16M this year, and in 2013, and in 2014. At those salaries, he would be Your Big Add.
He would be coming from not being able to hit in the NL, to taking on unfamiliar AL terminator SP's. Ramirez is a legitimate bad actor, he is your highest-paid player and he is going to run the clubhouse. No sale.
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Q. Why do Ozzie & Co. speak as though Hanley is still a superstar?
A. It's the Entitled Vet thing. Don Mattingly ran the Yankees for like eight years after he stopped hitting. Each year they'd talk about his having a good season this year.
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Q. Why are the M's being linked to him?
A. Is 'cause when you negotiate with Boras, you've got to have other options, and you've got to advertise 3x your options.
Dr. D is all for Stars & Scrubs. But not for stars who play like scrubs. Nothing to see here, move on, oh well whatever nevermind.
That's just my opinion I could be wrong,
Jeff