Why Does BABIP Work?
Why is it that 30% of all batted balls go for base hits, and it is even true that no individual hitter sustains a BABIP outside the 25-35% range?
What is it in the nature of a baseball game that causes 25-35% of batted balls to hit the ground and fall for base hits? If we could grasp that, we could grasp why a 25% line drive rate, with a .250 BABIP, mean bad luck, even over the course of 30 at-bats. Here's a hint: would as many balls fall into the sides of this Pachinko machine as would fall into the middle? Why or why not?
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If you dropped 30 balls down a Pascal board, and they all fell into the two left receptacles, you'd say "ah, that's bad luck." And any other explanation would be incorrect.
The thing is, you have to first thoroughly absorb WHY a ball, coming off a hitter's bat, is a Pascal's Triangle situation. Does a hitter's bat make contact 1/8 inch higher, or lower, because he meant for it to do so?
Does BABIP actually work?
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=== Crystal Ball Dept. ===
BABIP actually does work, and it works always. (Within a certain range.) BABIP always works just like it always works that Mark Reynolds never leads the league in strikeouts and batting average at the same time. It's not a statistical trick; it's the fabric of the reality out there.
One week ago, we published this article on the M's line drive rate vs. their BABIP. We concluded:
There is one correct thing to tell the Mariners' hitters. GREAT job, men! Keep doing what you're doing. The breaks will even out pretty quick here.
"Pretty quick" turned out to mean, "One week later, everybody will be smiling about the Mariners' offense again." Their BABIP - LD was 22 a week ago; right now it is already up to 51. It will certainly go much higher. Just like Alex Liddi's batting average will certainly go much lower.
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The earth is 70% covered by water, and the defense -- IN ITS BEST FORM -- maxes out at 70% coverage of the baseball field. You have one acre of grass, you have 8 men with gloves, and you have batted balls averaging 70 MPH. Ichiro's have averaged more.
When Chris Sale throws a slider low and away, and a left hand hitter reaches out miraculously to throw the barrel of the bat at it, the direction of the ball is random. It's semi-random as to the direction it goes, and it's almost completely random as to whether the bat hits the ball 1/16 of an inch higher or lower.
Jack Nicklaus said (help me out here Moe) that the perfectly flush golf strike is so difficult as to be nearly a physical impossibility. That's why the pro's choose to fade or draw a bit - margin for error. The ball is not even moving, they can swing at the moment they choose, and .... as human beings they still have no way to guarantee a flush strike.
BABIP isn't a statistician's trick. It's a way to quantify 1 acre, 8 gloves, and 70 MPH.
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=== Still On the Agenda ===
Ichiro's line drive rate stands at .312 and his BABIP at .316. He's still awesomely unlucky, despite a .301 / .322 / .410 slash line that has his OPS+ at 108, excellent for a "leadoff" hitter who creates plenty of extra offense when running around the bases.
If you've watched the games, you've seen one screaming line drive after another that has held up for the center fielder and right fielder to catch 275 feet away. Whether that ball goes between the outfielders, or to an outfielder, is nothing more than luck. An argument that these line drives will keep hitting OF's, is just like an argument that Alex Liddi will finish his career batting .375.
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People retreat to a foxhole: well, that BABIP will go back up towards 100-140, sure. But the line drive rate will sink to the level of 2010-11, and it will even out. For one thing, this begs the question. The arguer gets to assume that Ichiro is no different than he was in 2011. That was the very thing to be debated in March: will Ichiro contract his strike zone and hit better?
But, secondly, notice that Ichiro's GB/FB ratio is radically changed. Career: 2.35. Last year this deteriorated: 2.84. This year ... 1.21! Ichiro's line drives were suppressed to 20% in the past because he was deliberately hitting the top half of the ball. And as Ichiro topped the ball more, as he pulled more 2-bouncers to second base, he became less effective.
What is Ichiro's line drive rate going to be, now that he has revolutionized his game and is uppercutting the pitch? You have no way to know for sure what his LD rate will be. It's a different Ichiro now.
I suspect that, if Ichiro chooses to hit this way all through 2012, that he will lead the major leagues in line drive percentage.
Why wouldn't he? Who can cut a mosquito with a sword better than Ichiro?
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There is another player who hits like Ichiro, 200 hits per year, and this player has a career 24.0% line drive rate. If you want to know what Ichiro's line would look like, after the BABIP luck evened out, check Michael Young.
You have to park adjust, of course. Michael Young with 40 SB's and a Gold Glove would be a pretty decent player.
BABVA,
Dr D