League in hitters' counts: 94 fastballs, 5 splitters
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Last May we offered an analysis of League's Sasaki Syndrome. League replied, in the papers, that if he executed his game it shouldn't matter that hitters know what's coming.
Okay, maybe, but this year it has been mattering more and more. League now has 7 K and 5 BB in 13 innings. There is no such thing as a closer who sustains success on those ratios. You won't find any, because there aren't any. Closers have to have good K/BB ratios. 'cause they have to pitch good, and pitching good creates high K/BB ratios.
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=== 2012 To Date ===
Here are League's pitch tendencies so far in 2012, counting Monday's blown save:
| Fastballs | Splitters | |
| 0-0 count | 46 | 4 |
| 1-0 | 18 | 1 |
| 2-0 | 5 | 0 |
| 3-0 | 1 | 0 |
| 3-1 | 7 | 0 |
| 3-2 | 7 | 0 |
| 2-1 | 10 | 0 |
| Total | 94 | 5 |
League throws 25% splitters overall - absolutely none in hitter's counts, and about 50-50 when he's in the driver's seat.
With the above tendencies, League might as well be tipping his pitches. What difference would it make if League pushed his elbow out on the forkballs and didn't do so on fastballs? On 2-1, the batter is no less aware of the fastball now, than he would be with a "tell."
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=== April 30, 2012 ===
If we have the above chart, so do the Rays, and here's what happened on Monday:
11th, leadoff - Scott, 1-0 count: Fastball. Scott belts a double.
11th, man on 3B, two out, 1-0 count: Upton up, Fastball. Upton singles in the run to save the loss.
12th, man on 1B (walk), one out, 2-1 count: Pena up, Fastball, 4th straight heater he saw that AB. Line drive single pulled to RF.
12th, two men on, one out, 1-0 count: Johnson up, Fastball, line drive game winning RBI single.
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By my count he threw 14/16 fastballs in hitters' counts (and first pitches) Monday, vs. 6/9 in other counts. That, and including the March games, brought the total for 2012 to 94 fastballs and 5 splitters.
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=== Overview ===
Very true that we weren't complaining as long as he was saving games. Touche. That's how it is with closers.
But Brandon League is on a glide path down here. He's got a 7/5 CMD ratio and, without exquisite command low in the zone, he is obviously white-knuckle on every hitter. As he should be; if you're a major league hitter and you have the pitch, you ought to be able to do some damage.
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=== Pitchability ===
On the scouts' clipboard there is an area in which to grade "pitchability." It relates to how well a pitcher crosses up the hitters, how much of the plate he gets at what time.
Many pitchers underperform because of lack of this. Bartolo Colon had one of the lowest SwStr%'s in baseball last year. He has zero (0) pitchability: the batter knows what's coming. Well, he moves the ball around; that's part of pitchability.
When you see a pitcher with nuclear stuff fan 5 men a game, that is because of lack of pitchability. He just doesn't cross up the hitters. That's all. I didn't make up "pitchability." It's been a critical part of pitching for 100 years.
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=== Analysis ===
Ron Shandler, who specializes in closers, accepted League's terrible K ratio for 2012. Ron usually insists on 8+ strikeouts from closers; Brandon League has always had terrible strikeout ratios for a relief ace.
Shandler grudgingly accepted it in League's case because of "elite walk rates and very high groundball ratios." Just so! League has gotten away with 5-6 strikeout rates because he walks absolutely nobody, and because his first-pitch fastball is right at the knees.
Unfortunately, League does not have his command this year -- forget command; he doesn't even have control. Walks and wild pitches are through the roof. So the "tipping" is a luxury he can no longer afford. QED.
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THE KEY IS IN THE FIRST PITCH FASTBALL. If League goes 0-1, that is when this entire conversation becomes moot. In 2011, League threw that first-pitch heater into a teacup, limiting damage and staying away from hitter's counts.
If Brandon League wants to hit a teacup on 0-0, and command his fastball like Dennis Eckersley on 2-1, he can scrape by as a 5-6K closer for a few years. If Brandon League does not have command, and if he keeps "tipping" his pitches, he is going to get splashed. End of story. He can't afford both weaknesses at the same time.
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=== Groundball Pitchers ===
It's a Bill James Golden Principle that "I don't like groundball pitchers, I don't think you should invest in them, and I don't want them on my team." From a historical perspective, he thinks they walk such a fine line that they break down quickly, either in injury or in wildness.
Brandon League, with a plus-plus fastball and plus-plus splitter, pitches AS IF HE WERE a groundball pitcher -- he throws the 97 FB to a predictable spot, "pitching to contact," hoping to make the hitter hit a pitcher's pitch.
If he's going to throw all fastballs when the hitter is in the driver's seat, it would be interesting to see what happened if he took them up the ladder, changing the eye level, pitching as if he were a pitcher with good stuff. 1-0 count, here comes a fastball.... THERE IT IS! Whoops, too high, couldn't catch up to it...
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=== Tom Wilhelmsen ===
Is on pace for 110 IP this year.
Don't get me wrong. I'd give Wilhelmsen 20 IP in April also, while waiting for solutions to present themselves. The ballclub will change as the season goes along. But Tom is not available for 110 IP this year.
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=== The Bullpen ===
... has been overperforming in April. We've been taking it for granted, but there are lizards in the cellar. You've got a busted closer with a 7/5 control ratio, no command in the strike zone and who is "tipping" his pitches. You've got 110 IP on your setup man.
It's my team, Carter Capps and Stephen Pryor are here tomorrow, to begin their month of dues-paying. And a trade is made for a certified MLB short man if one is out there.
It's your tremendous luck as a Mariner fan that you have two 98-MPH relief pitchers in the upper minors.
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My $0.02,
Jeff