An Old, Ollllllllddd Argument
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To a certain extent this is exactly the kind of issue that Bill James, in 1975, developed sabermetrics for.
Back then, a 21-year-old Jim Thome would come to camp and be obviously a much better hitter than the 32-year-old Brook Jacoby in front of him. And Mike Hargrove would tell Bill*, you don't get it. Brook Jacoby has a knack for the tough RBI. Jacoby knows when to get those base hits. Sure, maybe Thome is slugging .550 and Jacoby only .350. But Jacoby knows how to break up the double play, knows how to move a runner over, just does the things you don't see in the box score. Plus I play cards with Brook.
James said, I prefer the things that do show up in the box score. And off we went into a new, more accurate understanding of what creates runs and wins.
Do you feel me here? In a very fundamental sense, sabermetrics was invented for the purpose of turning the game over to the Jesus Monteros of the world. The idea is to minimize the cost of feeding the invisible elephants if you can't find their tracks in the snow.
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The Mariners are 12-21 with Olivo starting (.367) and 11-15 with Montero starting (.423) at catcher.
Here, let's chart that:
| Catcher | W/L | Pro-rated record, 162 gms |
| Olivo | 12-21, .367 | 59 wins, 103 losses |
| Montero | 11-15, .423 | 69 wins, 93 losses |
Let's not even talk CERA; Montero's at 3.68, Olivo at 4.63. Slap me SILLY does this sound like a 1987 Bill James Abstract piece or what?
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With Olivo on the field, the Mariners have been a 103-loss team this season. That is not a criticism; it is a description of historical events.
With the Mariners on a 103-loss pace during Olivo's starts, it is no longer possible to maintain that he holds the pitching staff together. You might maintain other things about Olivo's contributions, that he is contributing to Tom Wilhelmsen's development, that he's helped settle in Lucas Leutge, whatever. You wouldn't be able to maintain that he's the straw that stirs the pitching drink.
After winning on May 23, the Mariners were 21-25, had won 4 of 5 and coming off a rousing series victory over the Texas Rangers. It appeared to me, from the stands, that the ballclub was on an exhilarating little swell up into its own identity.
Olivo rejoined the club on May 24, Wedge put him behind the plate and the Mariners promptly lost game one to the Angels, 0-3. They were swept in four straight, at home. I don't know if you've ever noticed that four-game sweeps are very rare in baseball. It's just so easy for something to go wrong for the superior side.
Since Olivo rejoined, the Mariners were 6 wins, 14 losses going into Saturday's game.
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Going into Saturday's game, Jesus Montero was slugging .546 from the catching position, and .305 as a DH. These aren't accidents; as a catcher, Montero is averaging 79 strikeouts per 550 AB's, and as a DH he's averaging 143 strikeouts per 550 AB's. If you don't know the difference between a 79-strikeout man and a 143-strikeout man ... well, let's chart it:
| Player | K's per 550 AB's or 162 games |
| Montero, C | 79 |
| Montero, DH | 143 |
| Edgar | 95 |
| Buhner | 155 |
Other power hitters who fan 80-90 times a year: Troy Tulowitzki, David Ortiz (lately), Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Paul Konerko.
Other power hitters who fan 140-150 times a year: Jayson Werth, B.J. Upton, Carlos Pena, Alex Gordon .... Miguel Olivo.
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