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Moe sez,

Doc,

You'll remember that when I was in my "anybody but Smoak" stage (Wait! I'm still in that!) earlier this year, when Carp was dinged, I said lets give the job to Liddi or Cat or Jimenez, anybody but "Little Timber" Smoak.

Jimenez smashed some in AAA, let's roll him out there for a while and see what we have.

And can we just give up on Smoak this year? ...Oh wait, I forgot that Smoak's a changed guy after his Tacoma trip. Let's see, his .203-.291-.290 over the last 28 days, and his 2nd half split of .161-.246-.268 sure proves that. Maybe it's his .196-.258-.312 splt vL that we will just HAVE to get on the field because we don't want to let Carp hit against lefties. That must be it.

But we don't need to see more Smoak or Olivo.

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=== Bail on Smoak:  PRO ===

When Justin Smoak first got here, he had a Ken Griffey Jr. swing left handed that sent balls 400+ feet the other way.  His average home run was longer than the AL average, 403 feet, he could line pitches from any section of the strike zone, and he had a good batting eye.

Then he messed up his thumbs, and as he stands today he's on a 2-year run of hitting home runs that are considerably shorter than the 397-foot AL average - only 391 feet.  Worse, he doesn't look like he has any power.  He squares balls up and they go absolutely nowhere.  The only time he gets home runs are on obvious "mistake" pitches that he sees coming before the pitcher lets them go.

Left-handed, he now pulls everything and they shift him; it seems farfetched that he'd ever Griffey one over the left field wall.  Okay, if you're a pull hitter, where's the power?

..............

It's not like he squares a lot of balls up, either.  His line drive percentage was terrible before he got sent down -- and then he shortened his stroke up and it's still terrible.  And the stats aren't the worst of it:  watch Smoak in the batter's box and he just shows you nothin'.  He's not on the pitches, and when he is nothing happens anyway.  

This is a guy who's on the field for one reason:  to hit.  He doesn't run and he doesn't change your club with his glove.

..............

His upside is called into question.  The general consensus is that Smoak, since the thumb problem, is never going to be a 30+ homer guy.  His ambition, supposedly, is a good OBP with gap power, maybe a .475 SLG in Safeco if things break right.  It would be one thing if you were hoping for an MVP candidate.  It's another thing if one day you're hoping he'll become a fairly good ballplayer.  Because while you're hoping, you're investing time in a .191 hitting first baseman.  The investment time is expensive with Smoak -- too expensive to spend on a guy whose upside you peg as "not bad."

.............

James watched Smoak earlier in the year and wondered why the M's hadn't pulled the plug already.

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=== Bail on Smoak:  CON ===

Guess when his earliest FA season is.  2017.  If the light suddenly comes on -- that happens in baseball -- you're throwing away a lot of club-controls seasons.  Winning is all about club-controls seasons.

It's not absolutely clear that Smoak's 2010 power won't return.  Though his HR distance is down, his MPH off the bat isn't down nearly as far.  It's not like he's gotten smaller.  He showed the power before, and it's hard to say why he wouldn't still be physically capable of it.

In theory, at least, Smoak is a very rare package of skills:  power, switch-hitting, EYE, the HIT skill, and lefty* in Safeco.  

Jay-Z thought that Smoak was rushed in the first place, and it's true that he's still only 25.  Next year he'll be a Post-Hype Sleeper, age 26 with experience.

His pedigree is first class:  top-10 overall pick, which (say) Michael Saunders and Mike Carp were definitely not.  Smoak's first year out of college, he posted a .449 OBP -- in the high minors, AA baseball.  His second year out of college, he was in the majors, with Texas, and that early in the year.  You ever want to talk about a kid who was messed up by being rushed, here you are.

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=== You Be Da Judge ===

Smoak has looked Charles Barkley turrrrible.  Not just .191 turrrible, but "not even capable of playing well" turrrible.  It's easy to understand the temptation to "get him out of our sight."

Objectively speaking, you've got a guy with over 4 years of club controls remaining, a guy with an extra-class pedigree both college and minors, and a guy whose offensive game is unusually broad.  At least theoretically.

The investment time is painful, with a capital P.  But!  In the real world, ML teams don't flush commodities like Smoak.  It's a king-sized (not that kind of King!) headache for Jack Zduriencik.  Some executive problems are essentially unsolvable.  Here's Exhibit A.  Who keeps up with the rules?  Is it an option to have Smoak in AAA for half a year?

Sigh.  You tell me what the cyber-M's here do with cyber-Smoak.