State of the Smoak, 2
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"I believe in paying my dues, in watching the kids figure things out. It makes winning more fun." - Bill James
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Q. Leaving him where?
A. Well, so if this interpretation be true ... he's got his head together now, he's got talent, he's got power, he's playing his game ... but he just hasn't seen enough pitches yet in his career.
This would mean that he's in a position to learn much more quickly. You don't learn much at all when you're in full-on retreat mode. If you're losing 15-1 to somebody at racquetball, and totally humiliated in front of your boss or girlfriend, are you getting better? Never happen. You learn when you're doing your thing and better players are beating you. To me, that's what's going on with Justin Smoak at the moment.
Smoak has had 2,000 pro at-bats,* majors and minors combined, and his OPS+ stands at 89 right now. Carlos Guillen had 2,700 combined before he stopped having 90 OPS+ years ... then he had one fairly good season, and then he became an MVP. Cecil Fielder had 1,900 minors and NPB at-bats*, plus 400 in Toronto, before he became an overnight sensation with a .592 SLG in the majors.
You could find guys who needed 4,000 pro at-bats to jell. You could find John Olerud, who needed 1. You could find Michael Jordan, who would probably have never learned.
If I (or anybody) were to say "Justin Smoak is due to jell at [a particular time, such as this particular time]" we'd be guessing. Neither would a comps list help. Players roughly comparable to Justin Smoak include John Olerud, Carlos Guillen, and Cecil Fielder. Players roughly comparable to Justin Smoak include every pheenom power hitter who was rushed to the big leagues. How do you create a template and a comps list for "a batter who is trying to recognize pitch spin"?
Honestly, tonight it looked like he has his own head together - took 'im long enough - and there's nothing for it but to wait until he starts "seeing" pitch types out of the pitcher's hand.
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Q. Do what with him?
A. Spectator suggested doing a Michael Saunders with him. Ya, they'll do that, at worst. We talked about Smoak "getting beaten" ... the kid does have a .400 OBP and .550 SLG this month. Thing is, the mainframe says that won't last. But his performance right now on breaking stuff is meehhhhh, not terrible. On fastballs it's sensational. He could, in theory, cobble a 120 OPS+ out of that game, immediately.
But Saunders him? Brilliant idea, which he may have leapfrogged. Smoak looks as if he's turned a corner, the way he's managing the pitches. Not the last corner he needs to turn, but a corner.
Should be much more fun to watch him after, than before.
BABVA,
Dr D