M's Lock and Load for Arena Baseball
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Q. How much difference does SSI expect from the new dimensions?
A. :- O
Had the Mariners simply removed the scoreboard in LF, we'd have expected a large impact. What they actually did... ::golfclap:: can we get a stadium name change with that? I'll go for Funway Park.
For those who just joined us, Dr. D does not quote Bill James because he's divinely inspired. We quote from him because he has a unique voice. Well, that and the fact that Dr. D is used to listening to Grandmasters with massive pattern recognition. Here is what James had when asked about the Padres' home park:
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Any comments on the talk about the Padres moving their fences up? Sounds like it will happen, do not know what dimensions yet.
Asked by: dyourg
Answered: 4/28/2012
I'd be in favor of it, if I was in San Diego. In the steroid era, maybe there was an advantage to keeping the totals real. But who wants to have a team that scores 550 runs in a season? What hitter wants to play in a park like that? Here's my suggestion: Have a little triangle that juts out from the end of the bullpen in right field, maybe 15 feet, where there are bright red ground-level seats. If the ball is hit into the red seats on the fly, it's a ground rule TRIPLE.
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Two things about this reply:
- We guesstimate that James' design change amounts to about 25% of the design change that the Mariners enacted. Check me on that.
- James' tweak skews the park to help the lefties it's been punishing (IIRC), as the M's did for righties. More on that latah...
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Q. If you check the scatter charts, each Mariner hitter would have gained only 1-4 homers in 2012, based on an overlay.
A. The operative word there being "EACH."
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Q. ...
A. Larry LaRue pointed out that on Tuesday, when the score was 3-0 Mariners, that with the new fences it would have been 9-5. I'm blinkin' lovin' it. If we turn out to have Coors West it is All Right By Me.
No, the impact may not be quite so colossal, but I been sitting up there on the 3B side, 3rd deck, since the park's been open. There are LOTSA LOTSA balls off that scoreboard, up against that wall...
And that's not even considering the fact that human beings are playing. Once the players see the first few games won on 3-run jacks, we expect them to relax into their swings and choose to send more balls out into Death Valley. The theoretical 25 extra Safeco jacks may turn out to be 50, once the mammals in the zoo adapt to the fact that their bar-press now releases morphine-laced pellets, rather than electic shocks.
And that park effect is completely aside from the fact that the M's have 9,000 young hitters who are just at the point of having career spikes ANYWAY.
It's possible. Possible that 2013 could see a critical mass effect, a cascade of factors that converge to create a Cinderella offensive year. Don't be surprised. New slogan: Your Souvenir In 30 Minutes Or It's Free.
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Q. You're expecting a Texas Rangers situation?
A. Heh ... we're a little tongue in cheek, usually. ... We're aware that the Mariners are closing their eyes, peeking through their fingers and hoping that the park will still play as a moderate pitcher's park.
My GUESS is that the impact is going to be more than people expect. Probably considerable' more. I'll go with Jay-Z's "might be an awful lot of fun."
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Q. Why did they announce it during the season?
A. The TV broadcast was a 9-inning infomercial. "Hey Fans! Expect Lots of Scoring in 2013! Secure Your Season Tickets Now!" They had CGI overlays, graphics, the announcers pointed out during live play every time the new fences might have resulted in more runs, they emphasized that a 3-0 game might have been 9-5 instead ... hey, if I order during the next 10 minutes, do I get free shipping and handling?
Which, we're guessing, does not run contrary to a business plan that would incorporate a Josh Hamilton press conference this winter.
We'd be okay with it,
Dr D