POTD Nick Swisher (Scouting Report) - The GOOD
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Q. Everybody knows who Nick Swisher is. What is the Mainframe's visceral reaction to him?
A. That he's a good #3 bat for a bad team. Or a mouthwatering #7-8 bat for a good team.
The Mainframe doesn't mean that as a backhanded compliment. Every team needs an Edgar Martinez type hitting third (or so). An OBP-first guy, a guy who is always on base, and a guy who can sting enemy pitching with 25-ish home runs and plenty of doubles. On the other hand, #3 hitters with 88 RBI don't hit in the middle of the order for big offenses. Swisher's a MOTO hitter... for the Royals or A's.
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Q. Still sounds backhanded.
A. Well, Ron Shandler wrote before 2012: "His consistency means you can bid on 2010 (.290/.360/.500) as his upside, and 2011 (.260/.370/.450) as his downside, at least for the next few years. That's as comforting as a smoooooooth, close shave at Mayberry Barber Shop."
I second that emotion. Nick Swisher is one whale of a classy ballplayer. Reminds me of Raul Ibanez, a little less SLG and a little more OBP. Swisher and Ibanez are the "old player skills" and the "young player skills" bookends on that 120 OPS+ corner outfield bookshelf.
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Q. How does the scouting clipboard grade him out?
A. His swing could bring tears to your eyes. It's wonderfully balanced, mobile and agile yet somehow anchored on the back leg. He drops his CG just a little lower than it should be dropped - which I love. This 4-inches-too-low CG sort of underlines the "ki" factor in his swing.
He's very short to the ball, has just about the quietest head in baseball. Smooth, powerful torque, just the right amount to lever the ball without getting elaborate. Perfect swing plane.
Dr. D would be hard-pressed to design a better baseball swing. This guy wasn't the star of Moneyball for nothing. He is a hitter the way you draw it up on the chalkboard.
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Q. Overall impact?
A. If I were Swisher's agent, I'd point out his WAR from the last three years, those being 4.1, 3.8 and 4.0 ... how many players could say their lowest WAR in that time had been 3.8?
He's #38 in baseball for WAR over the last three years; here's a WAR grid on it.
Over his career, he's averaged 90 walks (!), 35 doubles and 28 homers per 162 games, plays quality defense, is supposed to be a good guy. He's a little undersold by the fans, as Rauuuul was, and there isn't a ballclub in either league that wouldn't enjoy having him in the lineup.
On the other hand, let's not lose perspective: he's had 90 RBI twice in nine years. That is, he's had less than 90 RBI seven times in nine years, and will again next year. Do you want your big move to net you 82 RBI next year? That he's a fine ballplayer is clear. Whether he's going to be the right guy to commit big dollars to, the guy who jells your lineup, is another question.
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