John Jaso Can Probably Hit Lefties
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=== Overexposure, Dept. ===
Seen at BJOL:
About platoon splits. The one player that I remember having a reverse platoon split and a long career was Brett Butler. I looked him up and I am partially correct. His OBP v righties was .374, v. lefties .384. He slugged better the right way. (OK, Brett could never really be said to slug but you get my drift.)Asked by: Steve NAnswered: 1/18/2013I do. Butler would be the prototype of a player with a low platoon split. Since there is no platoon differential on balls in play, the platoon split is proportional to strikeouts, walks and homers. The less of those things a player does, the smaller his platoon differential.
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:: DINGGG :: and it goes off in your head, how many Kenny Loftons or Luis Polonias or Placido Polancos have ever needed to be platooned?
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=== Qwibbles and Bits, Dept. ===
OK, we start with the realization that Three True Outcomes players -- Jack Cust, Russell Branyan -- are going to be more susceptible to platoon issues. Right off the bat, we know why a guy like Mark Reynolds is so up-and-down. He's fighting a RH-on-RH war with tons of deep counts.
But we'd say that some guys have a wider EYE split, LH vs RH. John Jaso, for example, maintains an EYE near 1.0 against LHP's. So platoon differential is in proportion to TTO tendencies, but it also skews depending on K/BB skill against "tough" LH-on-LH pitching.
Qwibble #2, there could easily be some platoon differential on balls in play -- I'll guarantee you that some players' flyball ratios go up on the "bad" platoon split, and this will affect BABIP a little. But we know what Bill means here, and the qwibble should not diminish the value of the insight.
This will be something that I'll watch carefully in the future: a player's EYE split, LH vs RH. And it will give me a huge advantage in assessing true talent level.
:: winning Anthony Hopkins smile ::
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=== TTO/Platoon Theory As Applied to John Jaso ===
Jaso's EYE was great for his career against LHP's, super great. He's got a 117:100 EYE against righties, actually above 1.0; he's counting cards and beating the house. But he's also 23:28 against lefties, wow.
At this point you'd think, huh, if Jaso is really a poor hitter against lefties, I guess it's pretty much in the fact that his homers disappear.
And the homers, lifetime in the majors, are .... 19 HR in 900 PA against righties, and only 1 homer his whole life! against lefties. A-haaa!
Not so fast. Jaso has 1 homer in 150 PA's against lefties: if that had been 3 homers, his ratio would be exactly the same against LH's.
I think Matthew, at LL, demonstrated that in the minors, Jaso had perfectly normal (? correct me if I remember wrong) platoon splits. Contrary to popular opinion, this data is important.
At this point, if you were betting against Jaso hitting LHP's going forward, you'd feel awfully queasy about the money you'd laid down.
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=== The Scouting Eye ===
Jaso has a very level swing, Keeps the Bat In the Zone a Long Time (KBIZLT), reads the pitch and lashes with a quick bat, and there isn't any apparent reason TO ME that he shouldn't be able to hit lefties. I mean, if any lefty hitter could (short of freaks like Griffey, Hamilton, etc) John Jaso would be exactly the kind of guy who could hit LHP's.
I can't see him hitting homers against lefties, or driving the ball with much authority. I'll bet you agree.
But therein lies the real concern...
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=== Daric Barton Casey Kotchman Disease ===
In 2010, the lefty Barton led the American League in walks at the age of 24. He hit .273, this being in Oakland, and his OBP of .393 left his OPS+ at 120, despite lack of power.
There ain't any such thing as a player with a .400 OBP who can't play for Dr. D's team. And had Jack Zduriencik traded Daric Barton, following the 2010 season, you can only imagine the blog reaction. :: SHUDDER ::
Here's the thing, though. Daric Barton cannot drive the ball with authority.
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You can examine the followup to 2010 for yourself, with special emphasis on the question of "Can this player maintain his best offensive production despite full 550-AB exposure over the long term?" Barton's moment of glory lasted for how long, exactly?
I mean, if Jaso's giving you that tough a time at the plate, pitcher, it's 3-and-2 and he's fouled four pitches off, just throw a strike. What's going to happen? Do you believe in BABIP theory or don't you?
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Edit to add, we withdraw the Barton example, Your Honor. The good denizens of SSI politely noted that Dr. D was feebleminded to disregard Barton's shoulder injury. In the comments below we substitute a good selection of high-OBP, low-SLG one hit wonders who faced doom. Including but not limited to Casey Kotchman, Reggie Willits, Jose Vidro, our own Chone Figgins, and fill out your own scorecard.
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=== Dr's Prognosis ===
We don't say that John Jaso is a dead man walking. If he's not overexposed, he'll probably do a scrappy job with the bat for several years. And there's the possibility that his plate skills are SO diamond-hard that he'll become Joe Mauer Lite, or something.
Over the period 2010-12, there is one (1) fulltime player who has maintained a high OBP -- over .370 -- despite not having power. That player is Mauer. As a GM this would be my question about Jaso: sustaining OBP in the absence of power.
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There's one other fulltime player who's maintained a fairly impressive OBP despite lack of power, that being Brett Gardner. But now we're kind of into Leadoff Hitter territory, a guy whose OBP is partly due to his legs. Still, you could possibly imagine Jaso producing a .360, .370 OBP hard on the barrelhead, despite lack of power.
Nick Markakis Lite is one other suggestion, as a model for Jaso to shoot at going forward.
If you're bullish about Jaso's ability to emerge as a minor star in the American League, then you're bullish about his ability to pop the ball for about 25 doubles and 15 homers per year. He did that in 2012.
I don't see it, given the (lack of) physical torque he seems to apply, but if you do see positive gap power for Jaso, that's reasonable. And a .450'ish SLG would definitely unlock the door to his big-money future, because his OBP is definitely going to be real high in that event.
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Zduriencik didn't see Jaso as a role player because Jaso can't hit lefties. He saw Jaso as a role player because he's been a slap hitter* who has, in a very limited amount of time, looked better than he probably actually is.
I'd like to have Jaso on my ballclub. As a 300-AB guy, and a backup catcher, he is a championship #10-11 hitter. It was painful to give him up; I hated to do it. I'd rather give him up than give up any of the Big Three, however.
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BABVA,
Dr D
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*Jaso's power index is about 90-100. He's not a singles hitter, exactly, but his level of gap power isn't going to chase pitchers off the strike zone.