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=== Erikkk vs M's ===

Nobody quite knows what Erikkk will be this year.

Last year, watching him, Dr. D silently dabbed at the corners of his eyes with a tissue.  Gone was the upright, regal delivery and crackling hook.  He was lunging forward like Sid Fernandez, trying to steer the ball into the strike zone, trying to grovel strikes.  He wasn't the same pitcher, not by a long shot.

The only video we can find of him this year, is that March 31st outing in relief.  His delivery was back upright ... but it was stiff and mechanical, as though he were on anxiety medicine, or something.  There was no flow; he looked like he was doing it the old way, but doing it in pain.

Also, oddly enough, he didn't throw any curveballs.  (Well, he threw three or four over the course of four innings.)  He threw almost nothing but fastballs, about 91 MPH.

He's the Astros' #5 starter, was skipped in the rotation, so it's been close to 10 days since he last threw.  Often this means lack of command ... with Erikkk, my guess is, it will mean his arm feels better.

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From a sabermetric standpoint, HQ says

Used to be you could count on him for excellent numbers in between the DL stints.  But with his first 5+ ERA season, that's no longer the case, and he was released in August.  He'll land somewhere with strikeout stuff like this, but BB, OBP, LD% all trending the wrong way.  Only for the well-prepared realist.

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Consolidating HQ's trendlines, with our own knowledge of his template .... Erikkk's line drive rate has gone, recently, from 17% to 20% to 23%.  His BB are sky'ing, also.  This occurs as the edge to his game fades.

His game always used to be (1) the deadly hook, getting into your head, followed by (2) a sneaky fastball that he could throw by you after the hook was established.

It would seem that the old Bedard is gone, that he's gone through a career transition and that he's now pitching like Joe Saunders.  Let's hope so.  There's no rule against his coming out, firing 35% unhittable power curves, and tormenting the M's with well-spotted 92 fastballs.  

If that's the case, let's hope the M's are close after 5-6 innings, when Bedard has to exit.  Time to exploit his "Five and Dive" rep to our own advantage :- )

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=== Mr. ROY vs Lastros ===

I was surprised to find, on an insurance website, that Drunk Driving is not the #1 cause of accidents.  Coming #1 is Distracted Driving -- just looking at scenery, or at roadside accidents, or at text messages.  #2 is Drowsy Driving -- lots of accidents occur between midnight and 6 a.m. that have nothing to do with alcohol.

When you're driving, you can't leave your brain in the locker room.

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Will cheerfully admit that in his first start Maurer, moving around as though auditioning for a Warm Bodies or Zombieland movie, looked suspect.  But then, so did Carter Capps when he first came up...

In spring training, Maurer sold us all on a Freddy Garcia poise and presence.  Pace, attack with offspeed stuff, the whole 9 yards' worth of 50-cal rounds off the feeder belt.

The sudden reversion to Stark Raving Terror, both in-game and post-game, gave Dr. D whiplash.

With sprained neck aching, Dr. D does indeed want to see Maurer show his old poise and presence, before he ramps the laugh track back up to 10 on the volume dial.  Groove on in, Brandon, expand the blinkin' strike zone, and show them what you can DO.

The Astros should provide a soft landing, but as Wedge put it, even more helpful will be the fact that Maurer has gotten into his routine.  Logically speaking, Maurer ought to be able to kick the jitters out.  

Maurer has the goods, four quality pitches including a signature slider, but he is NOT the kind of pitcher who can leave his brain in the locker room.  Ryan Dempster, pitching drunk, would get lit up.  Chris Sale probably wouldn't.  Brandon Maurer would.  

Some pitchers can pitch while texting, or half asleep, or changing the CD on the stereo.  Maurer ain't one of 'em.

Last time 'round, Kelly Shoppach called the game and the synergy -- for that game -- wasn't.  Wonder whether it will be Shoppach or Montero this time.

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