"POTD jr." -- Michael Saunders (Spectator)
Gotta chime in here regarding one of our original favorites, Michael Saunders.
It wasn't that long ago that everyone in the room was shouting "Wells" and I was off in my little corner saying "Saunders." Well, look who's DFA'd now, and who's on their way to the All-Star Game. So I think I have some room to speak on this one.
The whole thing with Saunders starts with his bio.
First, imagine Nick Franklin's teen life. Sunny Orlando. Ballpark and cages all day, every day, year-round. Well-manicured infields. Select teams with real coaches.
Now what was Michael Saunders doing? Lugging around skates and lacrosse sticks. Or a basketball. Or a soccer ball. Or a fishing rod. And, even when he was on the diamond, he spent some of his time pitching. It's all here in his Canadian Olympic team bio in 2008 (for no apparent reason, still on the Internet). And he was doing all this in Canada, not Orlando.
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Here's the thing: Because of his great athletic talent, Michael Saunders was always promoted as if he had a Nick Franklin baseball background. But. He. Didn't. Even so, he kept up ... until he hit the majors.
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Gotta do some parallel time-travel here (imagine Doctor Who landing on a minor-league field, maybe?)
Age 19:
Franklin (in 2010) goes from high school in sunny Florida to the Midwest League. He shows genuine power, but strikes out a fair amount. His "three numbers" -- 92-104-96
Saunders (in 2006) goes from the Great White North (OK, I'm not super-familiar with B.C., and, sure, Victoria is not the Arctic Circle or anything, but it's not Orlando either) to the Midwest League. He doesn't show much power, but he shows an immediate gift for drawing walks. His "three numbers": 92-62-54.
In other words: Saunders and Franklin had the identical "Plate Skills Index" at age 19 in the Midwest League. Remember: the Midwest League is an "aggressive" placement for a 19-year-old, even a warm-climate "baseball rat."
Age 20:
Franklin (in 2011) splits between High-A and AA. Again, aggressive for a 20-year-old. Struggles a bit and deals with injuries: 82-80-62
Saunders (in 2007) splits between High-A and AA. Still striking out, but high walk rate and more power: 96-89-85
At age 20, Saunders ranked higher on the "Plate Skills Index" than Franklin.
Age 21:
Franklin (in 2012) splits between AA and AAA. Still aggressive promotion. 89-99-88
Saunders (in 2008) splits between AA and AAA. Also aggressive promotion. 85-93-77
Age 22:
Franklin (in 2013) in AAA. Pulling it all together. K% drops, keeps power. As of April 30: 203-139-242 (17 games; won't stay that high)
Saunders (in 2009) in AAA. Pulling it all together. K% drops, keeps power. A "golden year" (something that Casper Wells never approached). Full season: 110-120-130
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Saunders then spent most of 2010 in the majors, where he turned out to be terribly overmatched. He got another extended shot in 2011 and was even worse. In the minors, however, he drew 50 walks in just 64 games and his "three numbers" were 129-91-120.
It should be clear: Saunders struggled when he was less-advanced than the pitchers he was facing.
The Bavasi regime promoted him as if he were a Florida baseball rat, not a Canadian hockey (and multi-sport) kid, and the amazing thing is that he held up as well as he did.
When Saunders got a chance to show his natural talent while facing the level of pitching that he was "ready for" ... he was excellent. That's happening again in 2013.
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So ... to resolve Doc's dilemma. The "arc" is there ... you just have to "explain-away" his 2010 promotion, and the 2011 follow-up that are the aberrations. He really shouldn't have been in the majors at that stage; it's just that after years of the Bavasi regime, there wasn't anyone else to promote.
That 2011 season Doc starts with is really the only time that Saunders has had a poor walk rate ever.
And the K% creeping down as he becomes accustomed to his level is also nothing new.
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And I've said it before, but ...
Michael Saunders 2013: 4.8% HR% | 8.3% XBH% | 20.5% K% | 12.1% BB%
Jim Edmunds career: 4.9% HR% | 10.7% XBH% | 21.7% K% | 12.5% BB%
I'm just saying it's not outlandish that Saunders could put up some of those kind of numbers.