March and April Flashes of Power
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Chad Young wrote an excellent article about hitters who showed early signs of "losing it" or of leaping a plateau. He used batted-ball distance to ID five sleepers and five land mines:
| Player | 2013 distance as of Apr 23 | 2012 distance | Change |
| Dexter Fowler | 342 feet | 279 | +63 feet ! |
| Todd Frazier | 331 | 280 | +51 |
| Todd Helton | 334 | 283 | +51 |
| Colby Rasmus | 319 | 274 | +45 |
| Salvador Perez | 331 | 285 | +46 |
| Matt Kemp | 240 | 313 | -73 |
| Rauuulll | 224 | 292 | -68 |
| Joey Votto | 246 | 301 | -55 |
| Neil Walker | 340 | 292 | -48 |
| Kendrys Morales | 247 | 286 | -39 |
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Independently, Dr. D had been worrying about how hard Morales was hitting the ball, and this article didn't soothe his jangled nerves. and who else is in that "losers" column? Rauuuuull. He seemed like an obvious candidate to pull a John Olerud. (Oley, in his last year, was exactly the same hitter he'd always been, except his 370-footers started going 320 feet.)
But Morales has bounced back, with interest, and Rauuulll? We know how that turned out.
So did that chart have any value, or did it have reverse value?! I mean, the names also looked suspect ... why would Joey Votto be a big loser? Why would Todd Helton, at this time of the day, suddenly gain a bunch of power?
On the other hand, we saw an article that did correlate huge Spring Training SLG (+200) gains with improved regular season performance. Justin Smoak, IIRC, was in this category. So was Morse. (Smoak's OPS+ is indeed up, from 86 to 133.) So maybe the early flashes of power are worth looking at.
Anyway, let's see how it turned out:
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| Player | 2013 OPS+ | 2012 OPS+ | Change |
| Dexter Fowler | 113 | 123 | -10 |
| Todd Frazier | 97 | 97 | 0 |
| Todd Helton | 90 | 86 | -4 |
| Colby Rasmus | 83 | 126 | -43 |
| Salvador Perez | 113 | 88 | +25 |
| Matt Kemp | 96 | 146 | -50 |
| Rauuulll | 127 | 102 | +25 |
| Joey Votto | 177 | 161 | * no change |
| Neil Walker | 111 | 111 | 0 |
| Kendrys Morales | 132 | 118 | +14 |
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For what it's worth ... roto players who bet on this 10-player list didn't win. They steered clear of Matt Kemp, and they cashed in on Salvador Perez. But they missed out on Rauuuul and Kendrys, and the other six players were pushes.
Looking a level deeper ... Dexter Fowler seemed like a player who could be interesting here. But his BIP distance was way up in April ... his SLG is way down now, from .474 to .437. Granted, his ISO is unchanged.
The 10-player "sample" (sic) isn't conclusive, obviously. But combining this list with the scout's eye there is a light bulb to be had.
Don't worry about it too much if a veteran is taking short swings at the ball in his first month. He could be just getting his bearings.
On the other hand, if a player is suddenly showing much-improved power in March and April, that very often IS a sign of things to come. It's worthy of consideration. In Justin Smoak's case, the March SLG and the entire history arc did signal a big move forward.