.
Chad Young wrote an excellent article about hitters who showed early signs of "losing it" or of leaping a plateau. He used batted-ball distance to ID five sleepers and five land mines:
Player |
2013 distance as of Apr 23 |
2012 distance |
Change |
Dexter Fowler |
342 feet |
279 |
+63 feet ! |
Todd Frazier |
331 |
280 |
+51 |
Todd Helton |
334 |
283 |
+51 |
Colby Rasmus |
319 |
274 |
+45 |
Salvador Perez |
331 |
285 |
+46 |
|
|
|
|
Matt Kemp |
240 |
313 |
-73 |
Rauuulll |
224 |
292 |
-68 |
Joey Votto |
246 |
301 |
-55 |
Neil Walker |
340 |
292 |
-48 |
Kendrys Morales |
247 |
286 |
-39 |
.
Independently, Dr. D had been worrying about how hard Morales was hitting the ball, and this article didn't soothe his jangled nerves. and who else is in that "losers" column? Rauuuuull. He seemed like an obvious candidate to pull a John Olerud. (Oley, in his last year, was exactly the same hitter he'd always been, except his 370-footers started going 320 feet.)
But Morales has bounced back, with interest, and Rauuulll? We know how that turned out.
So did that chart have any value, or did it have reverse value?! I mean, the names also looked suspect ... why would Joey Votto be a big loser? Why would Todd Helton, at this time of the day, suddenly gain a bunch of power?