Add new comment

.

Q.  Has Kendrys Morales "regressed" since his hot streak?

A.  It was so hot in July that I saw two trees fighting over a dog ... with Morales In The Zone, everybody was all like "We gotta give this guy a $14M qualifying offer!!", especially offsite.  From 7/9/13 to 8/7/13, Kendrys batted .380 with a .621 SLG, and the visual sight of that had people in XTC.

Now it turns out that he can't hit .380 forever, and people are like "whooooa, check that, he's regressed."  No.  He hasn't "regressed."  Kendrys is who he is.  Saying that it is KENDRYS who has REGRESSED takes all of the responsibility off of us as analysts!  It's an evasion of accountability.

Cap't Jack's attitude:  let the season play out.  "It remains to be seen" is a Zduriencik catchphrase.  He'll phone a friend, ask the audience, and then make his Final Answer on a QO ... this winter.

.

Q.  Would a 125 OPS+ be "mediocre" for a DH?

A.  Once again, you can always find a player who does that for three months ... and then you can assume that it's no problemo to grab a "replacement level" 125 OPS+ slugger for $427,000 who will hit fourth and drive in the big run off Jared Weaver and Yu Darvish, series after series.

Kendrys isn't a mediocre hitter.  Get that straight.  He is a rawhide-tough Middle of the Order (MOTO) hitter.  He can hit 4th, he has hit 4th, and he deserves to hit 4th.  He's done it for contending teams.

You and I can argue about this all day long.  Rest assured that in the GMs' offices, they aren't arguing.  Kendrys is an RBI man.  He will get paid as such.

.

Q.  Who is Kendrys, really?

A.  To be fair, there is an unclear factor here ...  in 2009, Morales was an MVP candidate and then he suffered a catastrophic injury.  Ron Shandler sees him as gradually rising back toward that level.  If that is what we are seeing in 2012-2015, it will include hot months and months that are not-so-hot.

.

Q.  Has he been lousy the last month?

A.  He has not, no.

He has hit .309/.353/.383 ... his O-swing is 34% the last month, his Z-swing 72%.  He's essentially the same old Kendrys, minus a couple of balls he hasn't gotten ahold of.  (The stats and eye agree here.)  This happens!  A player goes a month, and five balls fly out.  He goes another month, and they don't.

We bloggers are much more impressionable.  The pro's understand that there will be ups and downs - they're always talking that cliche, "don't get too high or too low."  

As bleacher bums, you and I would like to avoid making the same mistakes over and over again ... a guy's on a hot streak and we go "Extend him!," he gets off the hot streak and we want to cut him loose.

One thing, though.  I've come around to youse guys here.  Kendrys is the clear choice over Michael Morse.  If the dollars are the same, of course.... Morse as pure DH, if he got Edgar-ized, you could then start debating it.  But that won't be the case probably.

Even healthy DH Morse, chance for 45 homers, you might still take Kendrys Morales' lefty* OBP, even steven.

.

Q.  Could he still revert to 2009, and MVP contention?

A.  He could, yes.  His EYE is improved over 2012.  Everything's trending UP.   .... he's had a month that was less-than-blazing-hot -- so sue him.  Look at the trends across SEASONS, not across weeks.

.

Q.  So what's the Dr's R/X?  Are you saying 1 yr / $14M or even 3/$35?

A.  Kendrys has dipped down to a 126 OPS+, that 126 being a low ebb.  He's hitting a diamond-hard .284 with plenty of walks and obvious gap/bleacher PWR.

Listen, gentlemen.  Kendrys Morales can hit 5th for me any time.  More to the point, he can hit 5th for any GM, any time.  One lousy season, $14M, for your five hitter?  You've got no downside there.  If Zduriencik doesn't extend a QO I'll be very surprised.

Also, there's a 20%, 30% chance that he'll catch fire in 2014 and hit .300 with 30 homers.

You can spend the $14M better, fine, spend it -- I'm down with that.  If a Prince Fielder or Cliff Lee shows up on your radar screen, if you get your opportunity to play Stars & Scrubs, absolutely -- put Kendrys' money into a legit world-class player.

But on a ballclub that has no place to spend its dinero anyway, sure.  I make the qualifying offer.

BABVA,

Dr D

.