Justin Smoak
First, let me apologize for not posting more ridiculously rambling articles recently. Finishing up my second fiction novel for release, so that's been occupying my time. Several new September additions and the post-script on the 2013 season should keep us busy looking both backwards and forwards, though.
And for one of those cases, we have Justin Smoak, who's been brought up in several recent shouts.
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First maxim: a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Second maxim: don't crush the bird in the hand just because it's a chipper finch and not a glorious falcon.
So let's start with the second maxim first. Are we expecting too much from Smoak?
First base is a pretty stratified position. Number of players, ranked by OPS (350 PAs):
Over .850: Five
.800 to .850: Five
.750 to .800: Ten
So for 30 teams, it's a 17/17/33/33 kind of split, best to worst. It's hard to get a top-tier guy - or even a second-tier one. First basemen used to be the easist way to get production. A decade ago, more than half the teams had a first baseman with an OPS over .800, and the only guys under ~.750 were due to injury or playing for the Oakland platoon or the miserable Royals. An .800 OPS actually got you ranked BELOW the "average player" for your position, thanks to the excellence at the top. Times/lack of PEDs have changed the landscape at first.
Smoak's sOPS+ versus everyone else at his position is 104. Now we can talk about whether his walks are inflating that figure beyond the scope of his actual usefulness in the lineup, but he's not making outs. He's stretching innings and taking pitches even if he's not driving in (any) runs. You'd like your first baseman to be an RBI guy, and there are eight of them with 80+ RBIs on the year. But 1B isn't really showing up as a power position this year.
There are five first basemen who will hit 30+ HRs this season. Smoak is hanging out in the ~15 HR sweetspot with Brandon Belt, Morneau, Napoli, A-Gone, Lind... that's just where the current guys are at. They are showing Olerud power, not Pujols power.
Last year? 5 with 30+ HRs, high of 33. Smoak's 19 were good for a top-half finish.
2011? 7 with 30+, 13 with 20+.
Is THAT a change from a decade ago?
2003: 7 with 30+, high of 47. Names: Thome, Sexson, Delgado, Giambi, Bagwell, Helton, Derrek Lee. So basically the HOF hitters or massive crushers (as well as at least one steroid user).
We seem to be in an age without many bombers at first base, and 30+ has never been the standard for manning the position. Hitting 20 HRs makes you a decent power threat when compared to your peers. Smoak is showing 20 HR power (if he plays a full complement of games). HRs aren't his issue.
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So Smoak has good on-base skills (9th among first basemen) and adequate HR power (more HR/PA than Swisher, Hosmer, Belt, Votto, Fielder...). What's his downfall?
Honestly, it's doubles - because Smoak does not hit them. He's never really hit them. He might hit more HRs than doubles on the year, and he's only hit 7 more doubles than HRs for his career. He has no idea what a two-bagger looks like. Maybe that's a result of his pull tendencies that make his shots down the line into long singles for a plodding 1B with no base-running skills whatsoever, because even compared to other slow-footed hitters he's just not capable of hitting em.
Doubles rate:
LaRoche: every 17.5 PAs (.265 average)
Olerud: every 18 PAs (.295 average)
Howard: every 23 PAs (.270 average)
Smoak: every 27 PAs (.230 average)
Smoak has crawled allll the way up to a 2B-every-25-PAs this year with his .260 average. He simply can't take two bags. It's a single, a walk, or occasionally a HR. That makes his lower HR totals a problem they wouldn't otherwise be. His 35% XBH rate isn't atrocious overall, but that doesn't take into account just how few hits he's been getting. When ranked against AB instead of by hit, it gets ugly.
XBH, as a percentage of at-bats:
LaRoche: 11.5%
Olerud: 10.2%
Howard: 12.7%
Smoak: 8.1%
Morales(10.7%), Ibanez(10.6%), Morse (10.2%), Seager(9.6%), Saunders(8.3%)... it's hard to find guys on this team who aren't better for their careers at XBHs-per-AB than Smoak. Ackley's worse (6.8%) but I don't find that comforting. The limits of Smoak's game as currently constructed are glaring. He's standing on first base quite a bit, but that's all he's doing.
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The reason Justin isn't an RBI man is because he can't plate a man from first, or even always from second. He's not a gap hitter. He hits pull singles and pull HRs, and walks to first base. Does that make him an ideal first baseman? Far from it.
Which takes me back to Maxim #1: Be grateful for what you have, and that you have a bird at all. In this age where there are a lack of sluggers at first base it's not the end of the world. Who are we going to trade for or add that's better? Adam LaRoche is priced as 12 mil/yr and is a comparable (actually worse, but whatever) bat to Smoak. Napoli was a little better in a much better offensive park, and struck out in 34% (!) of his PAs. We could grab him this offseason if we wanted, but how much gain is there going to be? Swish has 45 ribbies for $11 mil. Garrett Jones is bad. Moss is a lefty platooner too. Where's the upgrade?
Justin's as good as we're going to get, going outside the organization. There are very few available 1B worth anything, especially for the price difference between their salary and the $2ish million that Smoak is gonna get. And we have in-house options on the way.
I like Choi better than a lot of people do, but with he and Deej looking very good for a 2015 roster spot at some point (at which point we can flip Smoak's last year and a half of club control for another closer or something) I don't see the prospect out there that's available and better than our in-house 1B options. DJ Peterson has HR power and the ability to hit for some average as well. Choi is a doubles machine with an incredibly rock-solid batting eye and really good on-base skills. They might not be any better than this version of Smoak, but they won't be worse, and they'll be CHEAP.
Which means we can spend our money some place other than first base.
Somebody just make sure we get Morales back this off-season and keep Smoak well out of the MOTO, because driving in runs is a skill he does not possess, and that I doubt he ever will. Richie Sexson he ain't. If we accept that he's a fluffy finch and not a fearsome falcon at the plate and treat him as such, he still has value because he's not a black hole in the lineup. He's not Cust, or Kotchman. Justin Smoak pulls his own weight, he just can't pull anyone else's.
Don't construct the lineup to require Smoak to carry his fellow hitters and it shouldn't be a problem.
~G