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Percy Harvin 2013, Randy Moss 2007

Threat is stronger than the execution, Dept.

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True dat:  data makes your content objectively stronger than your opinion.  But subjectively?  Is it stats that change the world, or is it Hollywood?  How many stats were there in Maureen Dowd's latest column?

Math is great.  Verbal idea transfer is greater.  Proof is critical; persuasion is vital.  Both are important.  One's more important than the other.  We're people, not machines, and proof -- the final word on an issue -- is a lot more uncommon than we tend to realize.

Dr. D knows a few b'wanas who tend to confuse the two things.  ;- ) Knowing the difference is a tremendous competitive advantage.  If you're aware that you're in the arena of persuasion, rather than of proof, you can treat your audience with appropriate respect.

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In 2006, Randy Moss gathered a robust 553 yards of receiving for the Oakland Raiders.  In 2007, with his value discounted by about 70%, he moved to the New England Patriots.

For the Patriots, Moss caught 98 passes for 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns.  Brady threw for 50 touchdowns overall, Wes Welker caught 112 (!) passes underneath Moss, and the Patriots went 16-and-0.  It took the Giants' "helmet catch" to prevent a Hollywood movie.

Dr. D is a "Stars and Scrubs" guy in most sports contexts, but especially as it applies to wide receivers who are authentically scary TD threats.  I personally thought that the Patriots' offense, with Moss, was tranformed.  From "great" to whatever is beyond that.  Tom Brady threw for 3500 yards the year before the Patriots got Moss; he threw for 4800 the year they got him.

Jerry Rice provided the electricity to Bill Walsh's West Coast offense; the 1980's version of the "bubble screen" was a simple drag route across the middle to Rice.  He'd take the ball 4 yards over the line of scrimmage and ramble for 30-60 yards, once a game, it seemed.

The Pittsburgh Steelers won four Super Bowls with two wideouts who stretched the field vertically, as Al Davis would say.  The Cowboys won three of them (IIRC) with Michael Irvin providing the "white space" in enemy defenses.

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Bleacher Report has an article up with the X's and O's of how Percy Harvin helped push the Seahawks toward 41 points last Sunday.

For example, on Harvin's first play as a Seahawk, he simply lined up in the slot and the Vikings' defense responded with a 4-2-5 defense, two safeties very deep, and Marshawn Lynch reached for the open spaces like a hungry man reaching for bread.  Eight yards, easy as pie.  It is the intersection of Harvin, vertically, with Lynch's high-PSI pressure at the line, that will create an offense that is virtually impossible to stop.

It's worth noticing, too, that --- > we NFL fans will take a couple of games to recognize Percy Harvin as one of the game's most threatening players.  It took the Vikings 0 plays.  They showed Harvin the same respect, his first play, that teams will be showing him after his 10th touchdown as a Seahawk.

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On Harvin's second play as a Seahawk, he was inside slot right and he dragged the defense into the middle of the field.  Doug Baldwin was 1-on-1 with, literally, no other Viking player within 25 yards of him, even as the ball leisurely arch'ed down the sideline to him.  Bang, another 44 yards.

Bleacher Report has .gif's on all of this, plus more.  Great stuff.

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In chess, there is a maxim that goes "THE THREAT IS STRONGER THAN THE EXECUTION."  That's not a cliche.  It's an observation of the fact that, in some situations, holding the Sword of Damocles over somebody's head, and not dropping it, can pay off time after time after time.  

If batters are scared spitless of Hisashi Iwakuma's down-and-in shuuto, he can punish them time and time again with letter-high fastballs.  A rookie pitcher, with an 80-SB man on first base, might go nuts worrying about him.  The guy steals second, great, but now the pitcher can throw his natural game.  Well, in baseball it's more subtle ... :- )  In chess and in football, decoys change the game.

Percy Harvin will net the Seahawks 1,000+ yards per year, pro-rated.  His effect on their offense will be many times that.

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