Doug Fister Trade
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Over the last three years, Doug Fister has the 9th-highest WAR total in baseball. Per that metric, he's added more value than Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke or Gio Gonzalez. He's way ahead of Jon Lester, Matt Cain, and C.J. Wilson, and he's equal to David Price.
Going by FIP, Doug Fister has been the #5 starter in the American League the last three years. He's behind Felix, Verlander, Price, and Sale. Ahead of everybody else, including CC Sabathia, James Shields, Yu Darvish, etc.
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The Nationals apparently nabbed Fister for (about) the price of Erasmo Ramirez, Charlie Furbush, and (maybe) John Jaso. Doogie has two years of arb eligibility left, figuring to pull down about $7M and 10M in the next two seasons, respectively.
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BaseballHQ, before last season, had this to say about Robbie Ray:
"Thin, athletic lefty hit a wall in '12 and almost nothing went well. Fringy control in the past turned into a problem. 91-94 MPH FB lacks plus velocity and his 72-74 MPH CB is inconsistent and slurvy. CU has potential, but was not effective because he was behind too often. Does get some nice deception from his whip-like arm action."
Then, in 2013, Ray made progress -- he fanned 10 per game and walked 4 per game, in A+ and AA. The Mariner most comparable would be Charlie Furbush, about the time the Mariners traded for Furbush.
HQ gave Ray a "7D" grade, meaning an outside shot at being a #4-5 starter. Probably they'd bump him up after 2013.
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HQ said this about Ian Krol, pre-2013:
"Athletic lefty who was out in '11 due to elbow ailment and off-field incidents. Moved to 'pen and could be future role. Induces plenty of grounders with lively 86-91 fastball. Spots FB to both sides and can mix in solid-avg CB for K's. Not overpowering and lacks projection, but has above average control."
In other words, a classic Billy Beane three-pitch lefty, short on talent but long on guile. Tommy Milone, Travis Blackley :- ) , Dallas Braden.
Krol threw relief only in 2013, and threw pretty blinkin' well, but relief is relief. You see why SSI would compare these two pitchers to Erasmo and Furbush, but ... it is a totally different question, what pitcher the TIGERS are excited about.
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Steve Lombardozzi is a middle infielder who had -0.7 WAR last year (big smile), but the Tigers may feel he's a .300 hitter. It could be that the Tigers value him at about the level we-all valued John Jaso last year.
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That's kinda takin' the high side on all those players -- the Tigers' "case for" all these players. You want to take the down side? Then this is the second time that Doug Fister has been given away for nothing of any lasting value.
With all this local talk about huge $$$$ for David Price and Cliff Lee, I'm feeling a little forlorn that the Nats got in on this kinda action for three scrubs and zer-O diner-O. Wish our GM would do somethin' like this.
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