Paxton-plus for Jeff Samardzija - DO IT
Do It
(1) The Fangraphs paradigm is busted anyway.
It doesn't take into account the #26 player who slots into the torpedo tube behind the traded club-controls player. Nobody on earth can give you the "correct" solution here.
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(2) Jeff Samardzija is one whale of a pitcher. He is SSI's pick of the litter. What more do you need, chowderhead.
Also per Shandler, this dude is ready to explode on the league as a real ace.
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(3) He just agreed to a $5.3 million deal for 2014. He'll get what, $10-12 mill next year, and then go free agency. So if you're anal-retentive and really insist on algebra and WAR-per-dollar calculations, Samardzija gets you 2-3 free WAR a year.
(You could subtract Sanchez' dollar value and all that, but skip it. The M's have trillions of talented SP's in the low minors. Samardzija gets you a coupla-three WAR per year, free, before FA.)
If you're not anal, and you think in terms of players, what he does is allow you to sign another player along with himself -- Kendrys Morales, Nelson Cruz, etc.
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(4) It's not clear to me where the idea came from, that he's a "nice #3 starter." His xFIP, the last two years, is better than Justin Verlander's -- his K rate is over 9 and he's a groundball pitcher.
The ERA was weird, in 2H 2013, maybe because he got a little tired, and certainly because he got a lot unlucky. (ERA = 5.47 in the second half, but xERA = 3.88.)
He throws a hot fastball UP in the zone, he's got a wipeout forkball, AND his 3rd pitch the slider is one of MLB's best sliders. He's coming on.
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(5) Samardzija is Dr. D's kind of player. This dude takes no prisoners.
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Dr's R/X
This is one of those Rotisserie deals that is just plain fun. You can go back and forth, and you like either side. Keep James Paxton? We win. The Cubs will give you Jeff Samardzija for him? We win there too. It's a trade proposition that you can wallow in for days, and never go wrong either way you go.
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Here at SSI, we're James Paxton's biggest fans. We'd much rather trade five other prospects and keep Paxton, as Bat571 reminds us. That's the best of all worlds.
Bat571:
Given the Cubs catching, I'm surprised they aren't asking for Marlette -- it seems they have a top-10 prospect at every other position. Marlette, Guerrero, Sanchez, and Diaz might time right for them as well. Paxton is older and might be wasted while waiting. Their fan sites indicate the Cubs are looking mainly for top non-40 talent for AA/AAA to match up with Baez/Alcantara/et al. We got some of interest, I would think.
If either Bailey or Samardzija are gettable, a pox on Santana or Jimenez and their draft choices problem. If Van Slyke (or any decent-fielding RH-hitting OF who can hit in the .760-.840 OPS range while being rotated with Morrison/Hart/Guti/Smoak and who is gettable with a Romero/Ackley/Taylor - type price) could be snagged, I'd say a pox on Cruz as well. Grab the guys who really will fit by age and skills, and let TomMac do his thing in June.
If the Cubs will take five or six lesser 'spects, then dance the futterwacken.
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... but if it's K-Pax for Samardzija, you're okay to pull the trigger. Next year you wouldn't, but it is not next year. Objectively speaking, James Paxton's value is NOT yet what it is going to be after he conclusively proves he is a club-controls TOR starter.
Dr. D's golden rule in these situations, the one that cuts through the fog: You can pay Top Dollar, if and only if --- > you KNOW you'll be completely happy with what you're getting back.
I, for one, certainly would be happy with the return here: a franchise TOR starter. James Paxton for a Jimenez-level pitcher? No. For a Santana-class pitcher? No. For Jeff Samardzija? Yes.
My $0.02,
Dr D