Chris Young = 16x swings + misses?
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Solly Chollie, didn't getta see much of the game. Gotta get a game stub up, with the day off.
According to some wacky-and-wunnerful site called "Brooksbaseball.net," Young whuffed the Astros 16 times in 99 pitches. This is in market contradistinction to his 2014 average of 6.1 whuffs per 100 pitches and his lifelong bad habit of 9.2 per 100.
According to the same site, Young's slider count was also way, way up -- 41 sliders and curves amongst 99 pitches, compared to the usual 20-22 that are usually thrown outside the zone in "show me" fashion. According to GameDay, there was nothing "show me" about his sliders -- he threw them for called strikes, both up and down in the zone, right down the heart.
The result was that Young fanned 8 men, walking only 1, and generally sported a Hisashi Iwakuma box score.
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Here is a 2009 Baseball Prospectus article that says you can cheerfully add a full +6 to +7 MPH to the radar gun when Young throws. Y'dont like it, take it up with them. But that puts him around 93-94 MPH with Catfish Hunter control and a seriously vicious arm angle, releasing the ball from closer to the center of the rubber than you've ever seen.
Here is an article, from a month ago, when Young out-saber'ed a sabermetrician who was trying to teach him how to pitch. It is one whale of a fun read.
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On the postgame, Bill Krueger (who Dr. D considers a VERY fine pitching analyst) was insistent: Chris Young is 100.00% back to his All-Star days, pre-2009. Undoubtedly the new slider was causing part of the reaction.
Young is now 8-4, 3.11, and absolutely THE poster boy for "exceptions to FIP." For those who just joined us, "Fielding Independent Pitching" tells you what an ERA "should have been" if the fielding, the park, and the "batted average on balls in play" had been average. "Expected" FIP, or xFIP, tells you what an ERA for all that would be if you also "normalized" the fly balls to yield an "average" amount of home runs.
It is true the FIP and xFIP predict ERA better than ERA predicts itself -- for any large group of pitchers. Then again, BABIP predicts AVG better than AVG predicts itself -- except for Ichiro, and a few others. That is the mark of a flexible mind, the willingness to look for exceptions to the rules. The run-of-the-mill sabermetrician has not, in the past, been noted for his flexible mind. Chris Young, however, has. He is a pleasure to watch pitch.
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Edit to add: just saw the 2nd inning. Young was throwing the slider as if it were a Josh Beckett curve. Working with TOR tempo and rhythm, just cutting through them like wheat.
Who is this guy?
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Like Jeremy Bonderman has a lifetime ERA of +1 run over expectancy, Chris Young has a lifetime ERA of -1 run under expectancy. That, AND he is a great fit for the park, and for this team, AND he's got upside. Apparently. At this point my question is, do you give him a 2-year deal to pitch in Safeco. Don't rule it out: Jack's got to be awfully proud of him.
I know I'm slow to come around here, but:
- Effectively 92-94 MPH, a Colon-like repertoire
- Painted like Catfish
- Great for the park
- A pleasure to have in class
- Now tantalizing with a slider that would make him genuinely good
- Hard to say what more you would want in a #5 starter?
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James Paxton is now on track for imminent return. If it's Dr. D's team, the man who goes to the bullpen as #6 starter is Roenis Elias. Not Chris Young. It would do Elias some good. No use having Elias throw 200 innings as a rookie, and the extra LH arm would be useful there.
BABVA,
Dr D