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The Smash Factor

Fun with Hittracker.com

FORWARD:

As the site mulled the various off season adds, Rick stated that Stubbs was his hoss.  This set me about thinking about some sort of stat that wasn't affected by Coors field so I could mull whether I liked Stubbs or not.  Both zone discipline and speed off bat stats are affected by Coors, as off speed pitches curve less in Coors, and are easier to square up, but these stats are as park and league independent as any that I know about.

Since Hittracker online is fun, (check it out if you haven't yet done so), I decided to peruse it to learn what there was to learn about Dew Stubbs.  This morphed into the following article:

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Moe talks alot about smash factor.  That is loosely defined as the maximum amount of blunt force trauma that can be delivered to a ball, when it is hit on the screws.  ESPN's Hit Tracker online is a small public taste of the Pitch Fx Kool Aid, where every home run since 2006 is catalogued, and charted by speed off bat, distance and and angle of launch.  The undisputed king of Hit Tracker is Giancarlo Stanton, who hits the most balls the hardest every year that he plays.  Stanton's best hits top out at 117-118 miles per hour off the bat and approach 500 feet.  In looking at Stanton's numbers, 17 of his homeruns were hit harder than 105 miles per hour.  Stanton's competitors for the smash factor crown are guys like David Ortiz, Edwin Encarnacion and Mike Trout.  While SF is one factor out of many, it might be useful to look at the Mariners' level of SF or lack thereof.  I collected every home run hit harder than 105 miles per hour in 2014 for the Mariners and most of our possible trade targets.  Why 105 miles per hour?  I don't know.  That seemed like a good number, as it generally represents a homerun in the most pitcher friendly parks, even Safeco.   Here are the results:

           
Date     Player Distance MPH off bat
6/29/2014 Video View Cano, Robinson 384 107.1
6/11/2014 Video View Cano, Robinson 400 106.8
4/17/2014 Video View Cano, Robinson 388 106.7
4/27/2014 Video View Seager, Kyle 395 106.2
6/24/2014 Video View Seager, Kyle 403 105.8
6/30/2014 Video View Saunders, Michael 417 109.2
5/29/2014 Video View Saunders, Michael 376 105.2
4/14/2014 Video View Zunino, Mike 431 106.8
7/7/2014 Video View Zunino, Mike 403 106.8
6/25/2014 Video View Zunino, Mike 384 108.6
6/22/2014 Video View Zunino, Mike 418 105.4
6/20/2014 Video View Zunino, Mike 430 108.9
6/23/2014 Video View Morrison, Logan 431 105.2
6/20/2014 Video View Morrison, Logan 405 112.6
5/3/2014 Video View Smoak, Justin 403 110.1
5/10/2014 Video View Ackley, Dustin 391 104.9
4/8/2014 Video View Hart, Corey 413 110.2
4/1/2014 Video View Miller, Brad 427 112.3
6/30/2014 Video View Miller, Brad 394 109.1
4/5/2014 Video View Almonte, Abraham 419 106.4
6/7/2014 Video View Gillespie, Cole 429 105.9
           
6/11/2014 Video View Willingham, Josh 410 109.8
5/29/2014 Video View Willingham, Josh 446 109.5
6/1/2014 Video View Willingham, Josh 412 106.6
5/30/2014 Video View Willingham, Josh 416 106.4
6/24/2014 Video View Stubbs, Drew 446 108.3
7/7/2014 Video View Stubbs, Drew 379 106.6
4/29/2014 Video View Stubbs, Drew 399 105.3
6/18/2014 Video View Byrd, Marlon 435 111.8
6/24/2014 Video View Byrd, Marlon 416 107.7
4/10/2014 Video View Byrd, Marlon 407 107.1
6/20/2014 Video View Byrd, Marlon 379 107.1
5/22/2014 Video View Byrd, Marlon 442 106.6
6/29/2014 Video View Byrd, Marlon 435 105.2
7/1/2014 Video View Quentin, Carlos 410 107
5/26/2014 Video View Viciedo, Dayan 429 108.8
7/7/2014 Video View Viciedo, Dayan 425 106.2
6/28/2014 Video View Viciedo, Dayan 416 105.7
5/16/2014 Video View Dunn, Adam 444 113.7
7/7/2014 Video View Dunn, Adam 418 112
4/22/2014 Video View Dunn, Adam 417 110
5/23/2014 Video View Dunn, Adam 435 107.4
4/3/2014 Video View Dunn, Adam 386 106.8
6/4/2014 Video View Dunn, Adam 401 106.5
4/24/2014 Video View Dunn, Adam 419 104.5
           

Our best SF home run hitter is Mike Zunino.  Whatever his offensive shortcomings may be, hitting like a feeb is not among them.  We already knew that though.  Miller, Lomo, Smoak and Hart are the only guys who flash double digit speed off bat.  This tells me that SF isn't everything, even if I am convinced it is something.  

For the trade target smash factor test, I did Zobrist, Dunn, Viciedio, Quentin, Byrd, Stubbs and Willingham.  Zobrist's readings were too faint to be detected by the bash-o-tron.  He's just not that kind of hitter.  The SF king of possible trade targets is Adam Dunn.  His SF has translated into a .798 OPS in US Cellular, or a 122 OPS+.  He is a free agent after this year, and he would probably love to add post season heroics to his resume.  Dunn would be a nice add.  Big Donkey doesn't really field or run or do anything other than DH though, so it is unlikely we are going to go there.  We already have LoMo, Smoak, Hart and Montero vying for the DH slot.  Wait.  None of those guys should feel real secure about their jobs.  If Dunn is available, and doesn't cost us DJ Peterson or someone, we should collect him.

Byrd, Stubbs, Viciedio and Willingham also provide nice smash factor.  And, they can play the field, (maybe not Viciedio), where they are competing with the likes of Dustin Ackley and Endy Chavez.   Any of those guys would be a good get, but the Coors and NL transitions are always suspect.

If you want a hitter you know is going to do above average, and isn't going to cost the farm, WIllingham and Dunn seem like good choices.  They both hit in the AL Central, the division that has Detroit in it, and they both hail from pitcher's parks.  That means no adjustment period, just plug and play.  Like an iPhone.  From what I understand playoff teams and their fans are not into uncertainties, try outs and adjustment periods.  Those things are best reserved for teams that are rebuilding.

 

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