Who is DJ?
If we're worried about trading him, is he worth the convo?
DJ is our most-tradable, top-shelf hitter. He has first round cache, a top-50 prospect ranking as of mid-season by a couple of places, and is now in the upper minors. When asked about it on the radio, Zduriencik had this to say:
“I don’t have any interest in trading D.J. Peterson, I can tell you,” he said. “None at all.”Zduriencik reiterated the point later in the interview, insisting he wasn’t interested in making deals before the July 31 trade deadline that might hurt the club in the future.“In most cases, if someone’s asking you for D.J. Peterson, they’re gonna give you something short-term, but I just think he’s a very, very valuable asset for us right now,” Zduriencik said. “You never say never to anything, but I really don’t have any intentions or desire to trade him.”
But just how valuable is he likely to be if we keep him? lr in the shouts keeps bringing up great points, so I figured we might as well have a con-fab about it.
lr states:
With Peterson's name being thrown around a lot in trade scenarios, it's got me thinking. Assuming he's a first baseman going forward, is everyone really in love with his skill-set? He's posting below average walk rates at the last 3 levels, though he hasn't had many at AA yet. His strikeout rate does seem to be dropping, though, again, only 60 PAs. I just wonder if his ceiling is going to be limited because of his low walk rates. As we all know, RHB in safeco get crushed, so I'm worried that mid OBP, high slugging RHB first baseman in our home park is a recipe for disappointment.And as far as what that kind of package means in value, a 1B with a 280/330/460 bat is perfectly ok, but to me it's only that, OK. An 800 OPS would've been 14th out of 26 1B last year by fangraphs count (Smoak was 19th) and 16th out of 27 this year. Yeah it looks nice compared to what we've had for the last 6 years, but in terms of pure value, a right handed 1B in Safeco without .250+ ISO and below average walk rates doesn't make me think of him as highly as many others seem to think.
Now THAT's comin' out swingin', with something to back it up. :-) Thanks lr. So, let's talk about it.
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First: DJ IS a first baseman. I don't like the idea of him in the OF, but he has good hands at 1st even if he's not the biggest dude around. He can't stick at 3rd though, and I don't care how long we're playing him there. Futures Game? He was a starter - at first. Maybe we asked 'em to do that to help convince him it's a promotion with a faster track to the bigs. ;-) Plus DJ isn't stupid - Kyle Seager is taking that field tonight as an All-Star. If Deej wants to be starting for the Ms sometime next year, or in 2016, it won't be at the hot corner.
So with that said... what kind of production does he have to have in order to be a must-keep instead of a trade chip, a cute-but-replaceable piece? Well, we'd have to know a) what we expect DJ to do in the bigs, b) what the position looks like currently, and c) what his positional peers in the minors look like (aka what the future of the position might be).
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A) What do we expect from DJ? As lr rightly points out, so far walking isn't a huge part Deej's skillset. He has 27 on the year against 75 Ks, in 365 PAs. A 7.4% walk rate isn't disastrous, but nobody's gonna confuse that with Ole or Gar, especially with that EYE ratio. For a team in desperate need of OBP guys, DJ will have to provide that on the basis of a high-average approach. He's not gonna Nick-Swisher his way to assisting the team with walks at this point. When Peterson was drafted, I said I expected something like Billy Butler out of him. Nice average, decent OBP on top of that but not extravagant, 60 extra base hits a year. And DJ has the glove at 1B that Butler does not have.
Some people aren't gonna like getting Billy Butler-like production out of first base, though. Allen Craig would be another comp, and another converted-3B (though this year for him is pretty dodgy so far). I think DJ is a hitter, and maybe he goes like A-Gone (.300/ .360/ .500 minor league career) and puts it all together a little later, finding those walks once he gets to the bigs. But if he doesn't... is Billy Butler-esque enough in the modern era of baseball?
B) What does the first base position look like now?
In the late-90s, pitchers were hitting .300. Announcers had extra base hits. It was crazy. News flash: it's no longer crazy. Paul Goldschmidt led the NL with 36 home runs last year - the fewest to lead a league since 1992, aka the end of the pre-roid era. First baseman aren't required to hit 40 bombs any more - and likely won't.
OPS and wRC+ at first base, 1999:
.900+ = 11 dudes (123-168 wRC+)
.860-.900 = 6 MORE guys (115-126 wRC+, ignoring Ole's 135 Safeco #)
OPS and wRC+ at first base, 2014:
.900+ = 5 dudes (144-168 wRC+)
.800-.860 = 8 guys (120-140 wRC+)
Like I said... the league has changed a LOT. Lop 50+ OPS points off the numbers of even the average 1B you saw 15 years ago to get a more realistic explanation of what today's first baseman might look like.
So these days, almost half the league is above .800 but only a very select few climb over .900... and most aren't really close. .800 to .850 is a good 1B. You would think if DJ can't do that, then he's not really all that irreplaceable. Keep in mind that Moss and Belt had the two best wRC+ numbers of that second group (138 and 140) because of their park effects. It's harder to post numbers for the Giants and As with their home park, and Safeco is in that area. We're basically hoping that DJ can manage a 130 or so, come in around #8-10. In 1999 that was the Sweeney / Karros level player, just a touch behind Ole and Delgado. In 2013, that's Allen Craig / Napoli, a bit behind Moss and Belt. In this park, that's about the .810 OPS that Morse is putting up in SF this year (netting him a 132 wRC+).
Can DJ hit .280/.350/.460 here? That's basically what we're asking. And if he can't, can we trade him for someone who can?
C) What kinds of 1B talent are down in the minors or just reaching the bigs?
Basically, Freeman, Moss and Belt are the upper echelon of the new-wave of first basemen. Goldschmidt is the class of the new wave, but after him there's some good, and then a lot of average. In the minors there's nobody who stands out head and shoulders over DJ. Some guys have better walk rates, but Jon Singleton was rated the #1 first base prospect in all the land. He has a minor league career OPS of about .850 and is whifftastically approaching his season in Houston. Others are Cron (DJ-lite with even fewer walks and less power, .830 OPS), Vogelbach (.865), and Olson (.835). Peterson's riding a .950, which is admittedly helped by his half-season in High Desert. Of course, Cron logged some time in the launch pad known as Salt Lake...
What I'm saying: there are no guaranteed first-base talents in the minors. Nobody who looks like a world-beater. We're in a lull when it comes to first-base talent, aided a bit by Abreu's arrival stateside. But there don't appear to be a lot of Abreus in the minors. DJ looks like one of the better hitting prospects at first base that can be expected to arrive over the next few years. If the best 1B going forward look like Miggy, Abreu and Goldschmit, and the next few could be Moss, Adams, Rizzo and Freeman... there's no one after that. It's wide open. The middle of the pack is all 30+ year olds. They're going to go away, and the next set of promotions isn't really wowing anybody. Which means the paucity of 1B options should drive Peterson's value up more, not less. His ability to BE a Belt-like contributor as a RH bat makes him worth more, not less.
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DJ might not be a world-beater (or heck, maybe he will be) but he doesn't HAVE to be in order to be a top-10 1B in this league. The era of half the league putting up a .900 OPS are over. With the way the shift is being implemented you want a hitter with pull power who can go the other way when required. More than that is gravy, and the fact that DJ is a righty helps us at the plate since we simply CANNOT convince righties who have ANY other options to come here. Safeco is scary - it made a HOF hitter in Beltre assume the fetal position.
So we need to keep good RH bats, especially at positions of need. And don't discount Deej's ability to grow. If he goes, he goes - but I'd prefer he stay. We need him there... and our options are not vast around the league. Of course, we do have Kivlehan and Choi who can play first, and either guy could come through as that 130ish wRC+ player we need there. Most everyone will say DJ is a better bet - hopefully we'll find out.
Matt's last shout: " Zobrist is 115-120 wRC+ right NOW when hitting at his normal level and we need it NOW...Peterson has very low upside to be a true #1 hitting prospect. I just don't see getting worked up over him."
*shrugs* we didnt get worked up over Choo either, but he was way better than what we got even if he's somehow NEVER been an All-Star. Those are the pieces that make a championship team work. I want Zobrist, and if he costs us DJ then he does... but I think it's a mistake to toss good RH hitters away in deals because they aren't HOFers. Getting hitting is only growing more difficult.
Let's try to keep the best ones with us, yeah?
~G
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