The Ms are in a weird spot, starting at playoff contention. Their pitching is carrying them, obviously - our slash line ranks are Last / Last / 3rd-to-Last / 2nd-to-Last. Because of where we play that still gives an OPS+ allll the way up around 91, but that 111 ERA+ (with help on the way for the #5 rotation spot) is getting us what wins we get.
It's a "timely hitting" ballclub, which will be a problem when Bloomie and Gillespie cool off. Maybe Cole won't cool off, and can give us 300 surprising at-bats - but the odds are not ever in his favor.
However, the Ms have both a righty and a lefty improvement for the lineup on the DL right now in Morrison and Hart. Do we rely on them as adds, considering they started off the season doing very little of anything? We traded for LoMo and signed Hart to as much guaranteed as he was being offered in incentives from the Brewers because we believed both men could aid our offense and bring it up to average, which is all we needed with a great staff. Can they still do that, or do we need to take the incentives "saved" by Hart's DL time and go shopping?
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It still looks to me like we need to shop. Coincidentally, the Dodgers broadcasts are talking every day about how Puig, Carl Crawford, 4th OF Van Slyke, Super-Prospect Joc Pederson, and the inordinately expensive Kemp and Ethier can't all play the field together. Tempers are fraying, even while the pricey vets are injured and underperforming. Somebody's got to go. I'm sure the Dodgers would like to trade Crawford, but with his injury history and carrying the same price tag as Kemp and more than Ethier, I'm not sure whether they can dump a career .290 hitter who refuses to play CF and who's bat seems to be slowing. Not for the prospect the Dodgers will want in return for eating a chunk of salary, anyway.
Kemp is still vocally annoyed that he's not in CF anymore even though he's basically terrible there, and he's not hitting like an MVP, but he is RH, plays in a big park, and his .250/.315/.420 line is better than everybody not named Cano, Seager or Saunders on this team. But he makes $21 mil a year through 2019, and although he's just 29 his DL stints for knee, ankle, hamstring, shoulder... he's a mess. But no more so than Crawford, and Kemp is a Name. His labrum issue seeeeeems to be okay in his 2nd year after surgery. We obviously wouldn't be paying $20+ million a year for him, but if the Dodgers kick in half in order to get a prospect back (sorry Nick) do you take the risk on a $5 / $50 million type payout for a former MVP with a beat-up body who has to move to a corner where he's basically an average player? If he gets it back together we're golden. If he keeps going on the DL twice a year, it's no help at all.
And then there's Ethier who is older (32), has a degenerative knee issue but is only under contract for 3 more years. He's playing some nominal CF but is a corner guy. He's a career .360 OBP guy with a .180 ISO, consistent as a metronome til this year with his 122 OPS+ career. Kemp is a righty so he helps our lineup balance, Ethier is a lefty. But Ethier until this year has been on the field 140 games a year, while Kemp has had some injury disasters. Either guy is absolutely gettable, both will be discounted by the depthless pockets of the Dodgers - it's just a matter of whether we want either man.
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Some other options:
RH Martin Prado, who can play 2B, 3B and OF. He's a career .290/.340 hitter, not a HR guy (which is fine since right-handers can hit HRs here anyway) but a decent player who just turned 30 and is making $11 mil a year for the next couple. Super Willie, I guess, but you're paying for it, and if he hits the Vidro cliff that'll be frustrating. But I'm not sure Arizona wants to keep paying him even though they just signed him, and he's lost a little power in the desert. He wouldn't be cheap, prospect-wise, but I still feel like he's gettable if we want him - he can handle either corner OF spot defensively. This is a more long-term investment in a player who will be here. Do we want him here?
RH Billy Butler, the DH we could use who has a 12.5 mil team option for next year and is still just 29. Unlike the D-Backs, who don't have a lot of emotion or winning invested in Prado, Butler is a beloved Royal. But business is business and we've been talking about trading Franklin for Butler since Beltran flirted with going back to KC. We almost had Butler once, and his .250/.300/.320 line has GOT to improve in the second half. There doesn't appear to be anything really WRONG with him, he's just starting sloooowly. Good to get that out of the way on somebody else's dime, right? And he'd be a nice placeholder for one of the Choi / Pederson / Kivlehan / whoever kids. The Royals have to give up on the playoffs first though.
RH Josh Willingham. He was beat up and useless, then finally DLed last year after a great season in 2012, and got hit on the wrist to start this year and had to rehab it early, but Josh is hitting great right now. The Twins just signed Morales so nobody knows what they're thinking about contention, but if they lose a few more games they may be willing to part with non-essentials, and Willingham is a FA after the season.
The Rockies have just gone on a giant losing streak so some guys may be available, but both Cuddyer (fractured shoulder) and CarGo (finger tumor surgery!) are out for the forseeable future, so I dunno who we'd get from them. Maybe we can swap them Smoak and Franklin for Morneau? More likely they'd need arms, and that would be odd for us based on who is currently available in our system.
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Cano, Seager, and whatever Saunders or Zunino can chip is is not gonna be enough to get us to the playoffs. If our pitching remains ridiculously outstanding maybe we can stay in the hunt and be around .500, but we could also go in the tank if Seager or Cano ease off the gas and wind up with one of those double-digit losing streaks we like. Cole Gillespie can't save us from everything.
But the 130 OPS+ version of Hart would change that. A 110 OPS+ Morrison in place of Smoak would certainly help. I can see why they would be reluctant to absorb $60+ million in salary for Kemp if Hart is gonna be the same player. It's not like Kemp or Ethier are a well of health and production at the moment.
But the Ms have to make a call: how much of your half-billion in extra equity and of your precious cash flow would you like to invest in a pennant run, and in making this team better? Because the offense is unlikely to simply get better on its own. If they REALLY believe in Hart and LoMo, maybe they stay put. If they want to stay cheap, then they definitely do. But this is the first year in a while where we could buy wins with offensive adds, and I'm hoping to see us take a risk.
Hopefully even the right risk. Feel free to add your favorite risks in the comments: who's out there that you wanna take a swing at?
~G
The Dodgers have filled their roster with a number of high dollar players that might not be worth half their salaries, with or without any prospects in return. On the other hand, Van Slyke could be a good addition to the Mariners at modest cost.
And he certainly fills our power-against-LHP need... but he does that for the Dodgers as well. Benchies who can fill a role are invaluable in the NL, and Scott does that perfectly this year.
The Dodgers don't have any need to get rid of Van Slyke, but have both Crawford and Kemp grumping about playing time and position. I expect SOMEone to bite on a discounted vet OF from the Dodgers, so I doubt they'll wanna trade Van Slyke if they're freeing up time to see more of him in the lineup.
Still, I would not be unhappy to add Van Slyke. And it's the sort of cost-conscious move that ownership can really get behind.
~G
Is who I'd like to see the Ms put the money on. He's disgruntled by the way he's been handled and with his playing time, which he feels he needs to recover. This is combined with, it appears, some distaste for changing positions at the same time he's trying to recover from his injury. I don't there is a best course in this one for the Dodgers. A team on the border of contention or below would just put him out there in CF, let him get his moves back and hope the offense comes around enough to offset his currently poor defense. But the Dodgers are both trying to win, and have guys that can play CF much better, so have chosen to screw with him. Is that the right way? Who knows?
What does appear pretty certain is that a team getting him who is willing to treat him as a MLB(tm) Starter and let him get the playing time to work his way back is going to get a pretty good player on offense, and less certain, a flawed, but steadily improving player on defense in the short term, and a pretty good player longer term. And there's a pretty good chance he recovers to be a force again. Discussions of whether he'd be better in a lineup than, say, Justin Smoak or Dustin Ackley appear ludicrous if he gets back to 140+ OPS+. It's the risk that is the thing.
The Ms put a lot of money into a LH #3 hitter, then tried to get a RH #4 at a bargain. It *may* not have worked. But this Ms fan would be delighted if they took another shot at it. If Franklin and prospect arms could get Kemp at 1/2 his contract rate, and McClendon can weave his confidence magic on Matt, it could be a great move. Mac would need to convince him to be a RH Saunders, a Starter who doesn't play *every* day, playing LF and some CF, getting 1-2 days off a week until he's fully back. Then he can try to take the CF job from JJ (and maybe he'll be a JJ fan by then having JJs speed and dynamism ahead of him in the lineup). But treat him like the star he has been and give him every chance.
Battleships were found to be limited as the main offensive force of the Navy, but they still packed a LOT of punch when equipped properly and used properly. I see Kemp as a possible battleship in the Ms task force.
The Dodgers also have a few very expensive guys in the pen that are not performing to their high salaries...
We may be able to get a 3 way trade going around our possible excess of relievers - if we believe in Maurer, Luetge, Smith, Bawcom, etc..., and get a hitter that way from either the Dodgers or the third team.
Per Maqman on another site, Dave Cameron was suggesting that the M's target Marlon Byrd from the Phillies... a vet who has been around the block, who knows play-offs... maybe?
Just because of the upside. The contract still runs a few years but he won't be OLD by the end - it's just a matter of how 33-34 year old Kemp is holding up.
But we're paying a price similar to what Colorado paid for Cuddyer. I put Prado on the list because he's locked in at 11 mil a year for a couple more years, and that's in range of what we may be able to get Kemp or Ethier for as our price tag. Prado is a .280/.330/.380 hitter this year. He's a .290/.340/.420 hitter career.
Matt Kemp has had his worst seasons the last couple years and is still a .730 OPS hitter with upside to go back and get. Will his busted up body let him do that? I dunno, but we do have a DH spot to give him a rest and enough weird OF pieces to shuffle through to let him have days off. He doesn't have to play 160 games a year.
Kemp seems to be on the upswing again, and is a guy with MVP-level talent. He's not gonna be a CFer full-time, but he's a Josh Hamilton-type talent. Why would I not add a Hamilton-level talent for a couple of minor leaguers and 10-12 million a year? Maybe the Dodgers want us to pay 15 or 17 and we go somewhere else, but for the right discount I would absolutely take Kemp off their hands as the RH star OFer we need to help balance the lineup and help out Cano and Seager.
Jones, Saunders, Cano, Kemp, Seager and Zunino is a nice start to any lineup. Hart or LoMo coming back to help out in place of Smoak or Ackley is even better. And then Choi, Blash, Taylor, Peterson, Kivlehan and Pizzano as various IF and OF options over the next year and a half to improve us further?
Might be able to field an average offense with that...
~G
There's nothing wrong with that, but I worry that Byrd is becoming a purely guess hitter in his old age (36). His Ks have skyrocketed the last couple years along with his power, while his walks have stayed low.
Now, Ibanez as a guess hitter crushed a bunch of bombs for us - it's not a bad thing when you've got a good database built up and know what pitches you can crush. He's not purely a NL hitter, having done time in Texas back in the Aughts where I remember being annoyed by him, but with a couple more years on his deal we'd better like him enough. And I feel like guess hitters would do better staying in their familiar league where their database of opposing pitchers and tendencies is better-stocked.
We want a vet, a righty, a guy who's "been through the wars" and Prado fits all those. He'd be done when Austin Wilson is theoretically ready, could be moved if Blash actually puts it together, and won't cost us a ton of top prospects or anything. He's definitely an option - RH outfielder with a bit of pop recently who's gettable and on a reasonable deal. But last year's 25% K rate climbing to this year's 28+... for a guy who was WELL under 20% the rest of his career, I just see that warning light and wonder how long he can keep guessing right.
Maybe we'll find out.
~G
I've been a long-time supporter of picking up Van Slyke, of course...but Willingham presents a real nice rent-a-bat scenario. the two things you can bet on from him are that he doesn't have a ton of split difference and he will walk and mash against lefties. And he's cheap.
He would be a very good get. We could figure out a deal with the Twinkies.
Willingham in, Romero to Tacoma. Morrison in, Smoak to Tacoma. Kelly in, one of our LF'ers out.
Jones, Saunders, Cano, Willingham, Seager, Zunino, Morrison, Kelly/Gillespie, Miller would work, wouldn't it?
We should have been on Van Slyke in the spring - as suggested frequently by you, Gordon, or was it Moe - when he was available. He's not now for the reason you suggest - they want to move one of the other guys. I wouldn't take Crawford if they gave him to me. And Either can't hit lefties at all.
Seems like Mattingly and Kemp really don't get along very well so he is probably gettable, but he's also a Hollywood kinda guy and don't know how he'd react being sent to the tundra. That'd be The Pencil's problem and one he might be the perfect guy to solve. I agree it's worth the shot.
The Dodgers have to do something to get moving and justify the cable dollars. At the moment, their games aren't even available in most of LA and nobody seems to upset. They need a boost and, yes, they need bullpen help. Their best reliver this year - by far - is League..
If memory serves, Willingham was one of the excellent hitters who signed modest deals while Fielder and Boras were doing the baseball version of the Iran Hostage Crisis. In Willingham we have a consistently good hitter with 30 home run power. The Twinks are a head scratcher though. Are they going for it, or is Morales and Willingham avalable at the right price?
Probably both. The Twinks will enjoy better play with Morales around, and they'll probably ship both short timers out at the end of July for a boatload of prospects when their pitching doesn't hold up. I wonder what the'yre asking? If we are still in it by then, would you be willing to trade Franklin for a couple of months of Josh Willingham? If we're going to trade specs, it would be nice to see something more long term. Still, winning seasons don't come along every decade. We should definitely do something here, and Willingham would be perfect.
Is the guy I'd be after. Even if Hart does resurface, what's wrong with hitting Jones, Kemp, Cano, Hart, Saunders, Seager or some such? We're not limited to having 1 good RH bat and I'd figure Hart is mostly DH/1b with Kemp mostly corner OF.
On that note why not Prado as well? Seems like exactly the guy Gillick would snag. Many are saying 1 bat won't make much difference, so how's about those 2.
There is only one team that looks like they're entirely out of it so far.
So how about Zobrist, Jennings or Joyce from TB?
Cubs, Phillies, Pirates, Mets and Padres outside our division all look to likely be sellers shortly, but right now Tampa is the hot mess of MLB. Texas and Houston could be options too.