1
I turned the game off and went to bed before the 9th. I know it's not rational but I cannot stand watching him pitch. Definitely not a guy that I would want on the mound in a game 7.
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SLOPS to: David Price throwing a game like that.
David Price is the 2012 Cy Young Winner, and if you take 25 random starts out of his career including May 13, 2014, then this one would have been the best. We're not talking stats, Egbert. We're talking about the fact that the 1961 Yankees would have had no shot.
He's the best pitcher, and that was his best. A once-per-year performance on his part.
But since you brought up stats... he fanned 12 guys, and walked none, according to the home plate umpire, that is. Here is the strike zone plot: +9 strikes, -0 balls.
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PROPS to: it took every blinkin' inch a Sandy Koufax game to beat the Seattle Mariners.
The Mariners did a very fine job taking what they got, not much:
- James Jones with a tear-jerking Bake McBride swing to line a double the other way, with two strikes
- Mike Zunino with a double into the right-center gap ... with two strikes and his wallet flying into the dugout
- Dustin Ackley with a double the other way
- Ackley with an infield hit, flying down the line
- Robinson Cano crushes a double into the LEFT center gap
- Cano with a soft liner up the middle
The '61 Yankees wouldn'ta done any more. Well, Mantle woulda walked twice, 'cause Cederstrom woulda given him the calls.
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SLOPS to: the home plate ump'ing against the Mariners. STILL.
Here is Cano's leadoff at-bat in the bottom of the 9th, as the Mariners tried to rally back from the gutpunch. YOU tell ME which pitch you'd have hit:
I'm completely convinced that Cederstrom's call, on pitch 6, was influenced by the fact that he didn't want to stand out there through extra innings. Cano took the pitch gorgeously, and it wasn't even quite as close as the graphic above indicates. Cano walks there, the M's bunt him over, there is a REAL good chance that Gary Cederstrom is going twelve innings. You know what works? Strike three works. Go hit the buffet, Gary.
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PROPS to: Automating the strike zone. The day will come when umps get replaced over stuff like that. I'm guessing five years.
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SLOPS to: Fernando Rodney blowing a save.
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PROPS to: the fact that the game-tying homer went like 341 feet.
Look, there's a ton of luck in baseball. You know what's weird? Sabermetrically we know how much luck is involved in homers-per-outfield-fly (HR/F). Emotionally it feels so much like Fernando Rodney deserved to lose.
Nope. If DeJesus' fly ball goes to center ... or even to straightaway left shading to the alley ... or if DeJesus hits it 1/64" lower on the ball ... or a bunch of other stuff ... then the M's win 1-0.
Rodney blew away Longoria and Zobrist easily for the next two outs. You'd be surprised how many times a pitcher gets a lucky out on the warning track, and then comes out looking great ... hey, for that matter, Iwakuma gave up several rockets in the first, but threw a shutout.*
You knew, did you not?, that females' brains are much better-connected between the emotional side and the intellectual side. You and I as males, trying to watch a baseball game with an understanding of Sabermetric Truths like (HR/F) and (ERA) and (W/L), are hard-wired to get confused.
;- )
.............
Here's the un-confusion for yer. As you know, we live to serve.
The outcome of that game was always going to be a dice roll. That is the way with epic pitchers' duels. Every pitch is "the ballgame."
That's a great thing about baseball: in the NBA, no one play matters at all, not in the second quarter it doesn't. Sometimes in MLB(TM) every single pitch is the ballgame, three hours long. Well, two-and-a-half, Gary.
As WBC-san said after the game, more or less. You can't force wins; you can play nearly perfectly, and still lose. You might as well relax into it.
The Mariners play like this all year, they'll win 90 games. Give it some time. Play like this for another month. Then we'll get un-confused.
Comments
2
I hope the Mariners don't let tonight goad them into swinging at borderline pitches outside too much or something. Price's start was physically impossible - or at least I'd have believed it so had I listened to the data. The data says that even the pitcher with the very best command in baseball missing the catcher's mitt by an average 6.5" on the average pitch that is not put in play. The MLB average is 11.2". That's AVERAGE. (In case you're wondering, the guy with the best ability to hit the mitt as precisely as possible...was Bartolo Colon in 2013). David Price was not in the top 10 in 2013.
So the data says you can't really throw the ball into a teacup. But tonight, Price fanned 8 men LOOKING...and he did that because he literally hit PRE-CISE-LY the corner 30 or 35 times in this game. That is simply breaking the laws of physics.
3
Price and Iwakuma were wonderful towatch. Carlton vs. Seaver wouldn't have been any more enjoyable, at their best. You could feel in your bones that Iwakuma wasn't coming out i the 9th, although watching him go for the CG would have been fun.
Price is going to be pretty rich in a year, isn't he?
After that lashing, Rodney has given up a .439 BABIP on the year and lefties are hitting him at a .333-.395-.487 rate. Ah...it will get better.
He threw a terrible pitch to DeJesus, an ugly-no good one. I don't know if he tired a bit or lost focus, but after giving up the 1st single he looked a bit like a whipped puppy.
We need Maurer to get some inspiration from Kuma tonight, or the bats to get some. A bounce back win is needed.
4
You all can buy into the conventional thinking if you want, yer choice... Not me.
The pitch chart for Price does not show throwing a great game... he is all over the place. There were plenty of pitches that could have been hit.
Take for example the 9th inning Cano at bat. We all knew Price would be staying away from Cano. There are at least 3 pitches that could been slapped, if not crushed to left, IF Cano was willing to hit the ball the other way. Instead, Cano was looking for a mistake he could hit to tie the game. If this was with two outs... or with this offense even one one - I'd be more understanding. But not with no one out.. at home.
And this happened ALL game.
These young hitters are way to often looking to punish mistakes and just pull the ball in the air. The opposing teams know this, as well as we do.
It is so frustrating that on Monday for 3 innings, this team proves they can take what the pitcher gives them... and score lots of runs, but then ignore that mostly the next night.
This offense was 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position last night. They had 10 chances. As Doc went through the list of hits - MOST went OPPO! But none in the clutch when we needed it.
These players have to learn when to be aggressive, and when going with the pitch to get a run in a close game MUST happen. Games like last night highlight that.
5
Whipped puppy is a good way to put it, Moe. You don't like to see your closer looking so befuddled, and props to Danny for coming in to assert control again. If lefties continue to punish Rodney, he'd better adjust to keep the closer spot.
In the last three games, we were in control late, and two were lost by our best relievers. I'm finding myself resigned to losing these games, to where I don't yell at the TV anymore. I know there's a 50% chance one of our relievers will throw gasoline on any flame, so I am prepared mentally. Is there a JJ Putz in our system somewhere, a struggling starter we can convert to high heat blow em away closer? Maybe Maurer, if he knew how to put away lefties.
I would like to see Lloyd do a little closer by committee managing. Stop the by the book managing for a bit and ride the guy who's on a little longer, until things shake out better. Maybe Furbush should come in the ninth in a game like yesterday, if Rodney's struggling against lefties. Maybe Farquhar stick around for the ninth, because he's on. Thing is, we have three guys in our pen who have had success closing. It should not be cut and dried that Rodney closes, period. But...if the manager rides a Brad Miller or an Almonte far beyond reasonableness, when other options are available, I guess you have to be resigned to Rodney as closer, and only Rodney. Over the long haul, it could shake out as a winner. Rodney was closer for the last two seasons for a very good winning ballclub. But Lloyd is going to get weary of the act if it continues. You can't ignore the closer role like you can one of nine hitters in your lineup.
6
But be prepared to walk. Cano can do it, but we're going to have to live through some more growing pains for a lot of these other kids as they perfect their pitch recognition, and understand the way to handle the pitch when they do recognize it.
We have key players who are still struggling with the adjustment period. Smoak in 2011 was sporting a .900+ OPS heading into June. Ackley, 40 games into his installment at second base, was OPSing plus .900 as well (wrap your head around that). These guys have the tools, and we've seen others like this - Franklin, maybe Jones. What we are also seeing is a retarded adjustment period. Get with it, guys.
7
I don't mean to be confrontational...but the "pitch chart" is not going to show you the sequences...the order in which pitches were deployed, or where the cacher was setting up.
Watching the game, I felt just as frustrated as I'm sure the Mariners are...because Price literally NAILED the outside corner time after time after time after frustrating time with 2 strikes. And those were 95 mph fastballs he was using. From a lefty. Who also had a devastating slider working when he needed it.
Seriously...I mean this in the nicest way possible...you can't understand a dominant performance like the one Price just posted by looking at the Brooks chart.
8
In the last three seasons, Rodney has allowed an OBP of .303 within the first 15 pitches (for all plate appearances that ended within 15 pitches) and .395 after that.
He's a crusty, old guy who throws max MAX MAAAAAAXXX effort on every pitch. If he ever hit 40 pitches in one appearance,s his arm would fly clean off his body and hit the batter in the head.
So yeah...after he got unlucky on a bloop HR, then got two easy outs, then gave up a bad luck single...he got tired. He's 38 and throws 98.
9
Price threw an above average game... yes.
BUT Price was not even in the same atmosphere as Kuma was. Kuma was un-hittable. Price was somewhat less than un-hittable.
What made Price tougher was Gary's strike zone... and I'll give you at least 4 great pitch sequences.
There were plenty of opportunities for the Mariners to drive in an extra run or two though. We missed our opportunities... not because of talent, but because of our aggressiveness and lack of plan during the at bat. A lot of this is due to inexperience, but all of it. HoJo and LLoyd need to be doing a better job of coaching in these types of games.
For example, to try to prove my point - If the Mariners offense faced Kuma last night, the M's would have been lucky to get a player to second base... and I guarantee the Rays score at least 2 runs on Price. I doubt many disagree with that.
10
We struck out *looking* EIGHT TIMES. :)
If anything, we suffered from a LACK of aggressiveness. Guys trying to get into favorable counts against a pitcher who was literally not throwing balls.
11
I'm with Matt. Price was absolutely dominant. I think the M's had the right approach - look for the mistake pitch and punish it. They did smack a good number of doubles with the approach but it wasn't enough. He just didn't make enough mistakes for it to pan out.
12
Wonder how the rest of the club will feel after a few more of those in May? Fold up the tents for the umpteenth time in club history? A look at the WHIP column for the pen in 2013 should have been a clue it wasn't a good idea to try more of the same in 2014. And then to add one of the wildest closers around to that mix? Here we sit with 5 bullpen guys walking 4.5+, utter ridiculousness in bullpen construction. I'll build my pen prioritizing WHIP over FIP all day. Oakland was pretty good in the pen last year but went ahead and tried to strengthen it. Johnson flopped so far but Otero and Abad in the mix with Gregerson and Doolittle has been lethal.
13
Matt... I think we are closer to agreement than you think... just coming at the center from different directions.
My belief is Price was extremely relaxed to start with, because he was confident in his pitching plan and his own ability to perform. Price felt absolutely no pressure from this offense. He knew he could get them to chase his curve, or he could just blow his fastball by them . Thus, Price hit his spots in several critical times.
I think you believe Price was un-hittable basically, because he is really good and he was ON, and he got better as his confidence grew / game went on.
So same result, just in different order. However, I believe that if some how a few Mariners could have cracked that confidence, then the hittable Price shows up due to him feeling the pressure.
That is basically what I saw again today - Odorizzi had no fear. Go right at the Mariners with a plan of attack, and force the Mariners to think versus just let them wail away at known pitch sequences. Now, maybe this is due to Molina, but that is another subject.
Now another reason for this opposing pitcher confidence is probably due to the Mariners have a bunch of guys who are guessing at the plate. From Almonte to Miller, even Zunino to Seager - these guys are swinging as hard as they can when they think a fastball is coming... and they are guessing wrong a lot. Then they get to two strikes, and some cut down their swing some times, but others (Miller, Almonte, Saunders, Seager and others) stay with their aggressiveness. However, if you are not guessing fastball, and a fastball comes... strike out looking.
Now maybe some will call this pitch stalking, but if you are striking out a lot more than you are getting hits... it is ugly, no matter what you call it... and the Mariner's offense the past few days has been ugly.