Seattle Sports Insider

Masahiro Tanaka - Video Analysis (grok'ing the arsenal)

If he hurts his arm, he could go into yoga

Posted by

10/30/13

Muchos problemos, if you're trying to capture Tanaka using video alone. In this post, we ticked off a few of the problems on our fingers for yer. Tough to measure your Tuesdays, using the Potrzebie unit. And tough to grok a "pitchability" ace, watching a few tosses on video.

Still and all ...

1) Tanaka is obviously in the Iwakuma / Kuroda template, and

2) His raw stuff looks superior to both.

Thusly:

Overhand Curve

Dr. D will go to his grave wondering why they call these pitches sliders. But that's okay. If you want a feel for the Tanaka Yakka, go to this video rat cheer and start at 0:42. The next 4 pitches are Mike Mussina overhand yakkers.

I R Fast did a terrific job of charting the F/X data on all of Tanaka's pitches. They give his curve as having a typical 83 MPH velocity, and he throws it a lot ... here, let's chart it out:

91 MPH Fastball - 49%
83 MPH Curve/Slider - 26%
86 MPH Fork/Splitter - 18%
Everything else - just for fun (cf. Iwakuma's change curve)

As with you guys, I'll be pretty surprised if the Mariners step up for Tanaka, but hey ... they are, in fact, owned by Nintendo. And if they Mariners are in the top 3 teams, then apparently Tanaka would be able to select them. Does it matter, playing in Seattle vs Chicago? Well, would you rather move to Japan or keep on going over to the middle of Russia?

But whichever team gets Tanaka, if it ain't the M's, then Tanaka's Yakka is going to strike a lot of fear into Dr. D's heart. Think Mike Mussina's knuckle curve. Or John Lackey's power curve in his prime. This one pitch, thrown 25% of the time, dominates a game all by itself.

Fastball

The first 5 pitches on this video give you a feel for how Tanaka likes to take hitters "up the ladder" with his fastball, and then whipsaw that against his overhand curve. Clayton Kershaw, Doc Gooden style.

I R Fast documents the fact that Tanaka throws a whale of a lot of fastballs high in the zone. My kinda pitcher! Last thing in the world this guy is doing, is "pitching to contact." He is pitching with BAD INTENTIONS, baby...

They also document the fact that Tanaka throws a silly-low number of pitches over the middle 1/3 of the plate. According to them, only 10% (!!) of Tanaka's pitches touched the middle third, which would have essentially led MLB. That is something usually that "nibblers" do, guys pitching with smoke and mirrors.

The intersection of that 10% rate, with Tanaka's ridiculous sub-2.0 CAREER! walk rate -- at a young age -- suggest elite control. Tanaka has better HR and BB rates than Iwakuma did, especially age-adjusted, and Hisashi Iwakuma has THE best fastball command in the major leagues.

...

That is precisely what Hisashi Iwakuma did to dominate: he stung hitters with sharp little fastballs for 0-1 counts. Night in, night out, Iwakuma would locate quality fastballs, on a game in game out basis. Batters would look for something hittable, and "something hittable" never came. Tanaka obviously does the same.

...

I don't (at all) buy the idea that Tanaka "is Iwakuma plus 5 MPH." I'm not sure that the speed on Tanaka's fastball would make much difference relative to Iwakuma's. Tell you what, though, Tanaka does get that extra foot of "hidden velocity" from his long stride. He'll be sneaky fast, as Iwakuma also is.

Forkball

A third pitch is almost superfluous here, but this is a strikeout pitch for him.

It's not a shuuto, not that I can see; NPB fans can correct me if I'm wrong. It looks like a Roger Clemens / Danny Haren power overhand fork, one with a downward plane and a late bite.

At the 0:20 and 0:30 marks of this video, you can see the shape of the pitch. The one at 0:30 is a dandy. The next pitch, about 0:38, shows you another one.

Convergence

SSI readers will take it from here. The fastball-curve whipsaw is a favorite at SSI, and here you've got a forkball that makes it a THREE-headed hydra in the same basic shape.

Several amigos pointed out to Dr. D that James Paxton was throwing a power "cut fastball", from hi-away to low-in on RH batters ... hitting their feet and yet inducing swings. You've got that situation in which the batter is trying desperately to make a distinction between "fastball that stays up" and "curve that breaks down," and now here is a pitch that looks like BOTH of them... and does neither. Whichever one you guess you're wrong...

We haven't even talked about deception, the fact that it's hard to decipher a pitch early against him. You can see the arm speed on the yakker.

....

A lot of the scouts, at least at the IR Fast link, seem to be pegging Tanaka's stuff as average-to-plus. We're guessing you know where SSI sits on that one.

There's only so much you can tell from a video reel. From these, what you can tell is that Tanaka looks better than Iwakuma and Kuroda. A good bit better.

Let's hope he doesn't land in the division,

Dr D

Blog:

POTD

Comments

Numbers

Doc, what's the best way to view the fact that that Tanaka's numbers have fallen across the board this season. BB/9 up, K/9 & K/BB down 2 years in a row. Also, as a league, the NPB has had a distinct offensive downturn the last three years, especially after the introduction of a less-bouncy ball (since reduced in less-bounciness). This makes me less excited about his numbers in general. However, he has done great at the WBC with the MLB ball, so there is that.
At the same time, I'm a fan of his talent but am lukewarm on his future. He's got a lot of millage on his arm and he's not a physical specimen like Darvish. He's more of a Matsuzaka meatball.

Deception

Jeff, too long of a time to say hi. Thanks though for your constant work. I can tell you first hand that most coaches/scouts have an over emphatic drool over the radar but I appreciate that you know deception can be far more powerful. Tanaka sounds very interesting. Good point about the mileage Icebreaker. I would not want too much for a used car but going above blue book for a sound model might be worth it. I shall enjoy following the progress from afar on here! Thanks!

"Two arms!"

Interesting info regarding NPB offensive trends, Ice! Only at SSI :)
Also completely agree with the physical comparison of Tanaka to DiceK. Kuma and Yu are long and willowy dudes who, to my eye, kind of sling the ball with relatively little effort. DiceK and Tanaka lack that length advantage so they make up for it with a powerful drive.
Reminds me of the difference between a ballista and a catapult. Ballista depends on a massive push while the catapult seems much more energy efficient.

Curve/Slider

Doc,
It seemed to me that there was a slight difference/intent with these "two" pitches. What I saw as a "curve" he actually started above the zone and dropped it into a strike. Hitters seemed to be completely fooled., hence my comment about his release point.
His "slider" was low and away to RHB's, classic down and out of the zone....or on the black.
His "sinker" was clearly a different pitch.
Anyway, I thought the intent was different at times with the slurvey pitch. I may well be wrong.
moe

They changed the ball again this year

To a "bouncier" ball without telling the players.

Ya RockiesJeff ... did you see the Tanaka videos?

How well do you feel like you can get a feel for his deception from the CF camera? Would love your take on it.

Would not surprise me if...

Tanaka simply threw the same pitch, at the same velocity, and changed his grip, or wrist angle, and varied the tilt as he chose. Felix does this.
Do you have some time markers? Did you see the velocity on the slider-vs-curve you're talking about?
:daps:

Pitches

Doc, While most of the pitches aren't gunned in the vid-link, there doesn't seem to be much velocity difference between those pitches, but I think there are, indeed, two of them. They both come in around 135-136 KPH/84 MPH (you'll see them both around 0:26) BTW.
"Curves" can be found at 0:08 and 0:14. They have more hump and start up in the zone.
"Slider" can be found at 0:12 and 0:16. Classic slider location there.
However the best look at "two" pitches is at 1:09 and 1:12, back-to-back. That first one has a hump that Blyleven would be proud of. They are either two different pitches, or variations on a theme; twin sons of different mothers, as it were.
The splitters/forkballs/shuuto-lites shown at 0:32 and 0:37 are WAY cool. The second example shows some movement that is nearly in (and WAY down) to RHB's.
There's a lot of Mad Dog in that dude.
And I'm not talking about that deathly red stuff you had to drink in college to prove your manhood.
moe

NPB Relievers

Some interesting possibilities listed here, posted about one week ago:
http://notanotherbaseballblog.wordpress.com/2013/10/24/japanese-npb-play...
Mathieson is covered at the bottom of the article. He piqued my interest.
Any SSI NPB super analysts have any thoughts on these players and the take offered by the article's author?

Ya I see what you're getting at Mo

For those wanting to take another look, this is the video Mo' Dawg is talking about ...
My own guess, is that we're talking about the same pitch; it arcs more when he takes a little off it. Sometimes a pitch with the same basic shape and F/X to it can vary, in velocity, from like 79 to 86 MPH and then the "break" in it (the distance from the apex of the curve to the straight line) changes a lot.
But they FUNCTION as two pitches, if he's throwing it at 78 and at 85, so...

Deception?

Jeff, thanks. Sorry, busy weekend but just quickly looked at a couple of videos. I just want to know if that is a whiffleball or a baseball Tanaka is throwing. Amazing amount of spin on both sides of the ball. Some pitches look like they were filmed during an earthquake with the movement. I watched another video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Acu_tWYNNpA) that gives shots from center field. The offspeed pitches making his fastball very effective. Deception? Thumbs up. Not overpowering. But obviously effective.
A totally different style. We get so used to watching the pure fundamentals on the pro golf tour but I would never want a Jim Furyk or Miller Barber to be someone who they are not. Tanaka has multiple funky things like his Arnold Palmer knocked knees to the crazy hand position. But he repeats them. And that is key.
Can he repeat that here? I don't see why not. I have appreciated your thoughts.
He is listed at 205? Do his shoes weigh 40 lbs?