The Narrative Quality of Baseball Stats
Americana, expressed in numbers

 

There is a narrative element to classic stats, a colorful element, a fun aspect to them.  At BJOL today:

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Hey Bill, do you ever interest yourself in the statistical side of crime history? The academic book "Murder in New York City," for example, does a good job of estimating homicide rates from coroner reports, police records, newspapers, etc., with statistical sophistication (I think) decade by decade back to the eighteenth century; it's not a bad read either. I enjoyed "Popular Crime" immensely but expected a different, more number-y book.
Asked by: PB
Answered: 10/30/2013
Baseball statistics are different than other statistics, in that they narrate stories.    I can create a biography of a player, even a player who never existed, with a box full of numbers.   I can make him fast or slow, strong or weak, consistent or inconsistent, lucky or unlucky, and I can make normal or unusual patterns in all of these areas.   We can share far more sophisticated narratives of this nature in a chart of 3-400 numbers than one could create with a paragraph of an equal number of words.  
 
This "narrative property" is what drew me into baseball statistics, and, I believe, it is what has drawn most of you into baseball statistics.   They're not actual statistics, in a traditional sense; they are numbers functioning as language.    A "30" in the "HR" column means "power"; a "45" means "great power."   
 
Crime statistics--like economic statistics, or like most other statistics--lack this narrative power, and thus lack interest, to me.   I keep thinking they might be interesting, but I can't find the doorway to the interesting room.   Crime statistics reduce vast numbers of narratives to a flat summary. . .flat in the sense that a soft drink is flat when it has been sitting open on the counter for two days.
..

I think we would agree that the expression "24-0, 1.27" contains not only information, but also --- > a story unto itself.  Here are some stats that contain not only information, but also complete stories within themselves:

  • 24-0, 1.27
  • 60 HR
  • 9 0 0 0 0 0 12 ... and a K-shaped victory dance
  • 130 SB
  • 116 W
  • etc

Sabermetricians challenge us to justify our enjoyment of this story-telling.  Periodically they nag us to remove these references from our baseball chat.  SSI resists their attempts to do so.

....

James makes an interesting little challenge to the saber-snob ... he proposes that this "colorful" aspect to classic stats is what got the sabermetrician first interested in stats.  

Huh!  

Could it be that we have forgotten from whence we came?

....

While we're on the subject, here are some more classic stats that contain emotional content for me:

  • 71-91
  • 14-6, 2.66
  • 11-16, 5.26
  • 22 HR, 69 RBI .... next to 23 HR, 80 RBI
  • 12-10, 3.04

71-and-91 is the M's record from 2013, and it is baseball melancholy.  You're not even bad enough to be amusing, not bad enough to be obviously in a rebuild, you're just .... a failure, and nothing else.  

You could put a term next to all 162 possible won-loss records.  Next to 71-91, I call dibs on "DREARY."  Dr. D has seen a lot of dreary seasons in his day.

...

How did Hisashi Iwakuma lose only 6 games?  For this team?  Bill Krueger called him a "coin-op machine."  Those 6 losses, I think best convey the story.

...

11-and-16 was Joe Saunders' record.  

It seems like Glenn Abbott went 11-16 every year in the 1970's.  Sixteen losses, with about ten wins, that is a Seattle Mariner workhorse.  (Actually Floyd Bannister was 10-15 in 1979 ... Rick Honeycutt was 10-17 the next year ... Matt Young and Jim Beattie were 10-15 and 11-15 each in 1983 ... you get the idea.  Joe Saunders would have been the #2 starter for umpty-leven Mariners teams of my youth.

...

Those 20 HR, 75 RBI seasons.  That was a MOTO season for 1970's Mariners.  Here, the expansion year 1977 ... Lee Roy Stanton, Dan Meyer, and Ruppert Jones.  They all had Seager/Morales seasons.

...

12-and-10.  Isn't that what Felix does for us every year?  In almost every season, Felix is a game or two away from .500.  What do you get, when you put an HOF pitcher onto a team like Seattle?  You get 12-10.

Sigh, 

Dr D

 

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