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Q. What could it possibly mean that "a player has nothing left to learn in AAA"?
A. Well, it's certainly possible this doesn't apply to Paxton. And may not apply to Brandon Maurer.
But it absolutely has applied to some people in the past. Jeff Clement had one fatal flaw: breaking pitches on the inner 1/3. Major league pitchers based their attacks around this hole and tormented him mercilessly. Why didn't AAA pitchers do so? They're not capable.
You can send Clement down to AAA for ten years, and he can slug .700 for ten years, and it won't help him deal with the MLB(TM) book on him.
That's true in lots of situations. Major league baseball isn't AAA baseball, two inches better. It is a different game in some ways, and there is such a thing as a "Quad-A" player. He's got a hole in his game that doesn't cost him in AAA.
IF it's true that Brandon Maurer "has nothing left to learn at AAA," it refers to the fact that PCL hitters won't punish his high sliders.
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Q. How could a pitcher be better in the major leagues than in AAA?
A. It happens. Here are Kerry Wood's statlines, right before and right after MLB promotion:
| Level | ERA | IP | BB | K |
| AAA | 4.68 | 57 | 52 | 80 |
| Chi NL | 3.40 | 166 | 85 | 233 |
At the time, I was in a huge flame war on the STATS board about whether Wood deserved to be promoted. "If his walk rate is 8 in the minors, it will be 12 in the majors," right? Not at all. Great power pitchers can easily reduce their walk rates in the majors. There are many reasons: the umping, the fact that ML hitters don't get into such deep counts, etc.
Here is Tim Lincecum's statline, immediately before and after transitioning from NCAA to pro ball:
| Level | ERA | IP | BB | K |
| UW, 2005-06 | 230 | 134 (!) | 330 | |
| Minors, 1 year | 63 | 23 | 104 | |
| SF, rookie | 146 | 65 | 150 |
Lincecum came out of the UW and Dr. D argued that, like Verlander*, he could go to the majors right then. "Huh? If he walks 5 guys a game in college, that's 8 in pro ball."
Nope. He was promoted to an appropriately tough level of competition and the walks stopped.
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Q. Why would walks go down in a higher league?
A. You get a situation where batters can't make contact off a pitcher, and a lot of stats go wonky.
Just for instance, Paxton throws a 1-0 pitch to a PCL batter who swings and misses ... count 1-1, but Paxton walks him later. Paxton throws the same 1-0 pitch to Matt Holliday ... who tops the ball, two bounces, to Kyle Seager. ML batters just don't want to get into deep counts, two strikes, against guys with 96 fastballs. It changes the game.
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Q. Are you saying this will happen with Paxton?
A. I'm saying it happens a lot to guys like Paxton. Be aware of the syndrome. Don't be surprised if Paxton's control issues are much reduced in the major leagues.
There is also the superior coaching -- crucial in Paxton's case. There were two occasions in the Cardinals game in which Paxton yanked pitches way off the plate. Within two pitches, Zunino was out to the mound the first time. Very quickly, Carl Willis was out to the mound the second time. Both trips worked perfectly.
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Q. What would cause the Bad Paxton to return?
A. The quality coaching -- including from Mike Zunino! -- will help a ton.
Paxton, for two games, has had his delivery (front knee) in great shape, and his release point actually looks real good.
ML hitters don't stand there for 6 pitches, hoping for a walk and willing to risk a whiff, the way they've been doing to Hultzen in Tacoma.
I like Paxton's chances to contain his control issues. But hey. Matt Moore walks 4+ per ballgame.
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Q. Is that in the abstract, or has Paxton himself been suffering from ump'ing and PCL passive hitting?
A. When he has battled himself, he's gotten no help with it. He begins teetering, and then the conditions put a huge amplifier on things. Paxton is battling his release point, and will be for a while. So is Matt Moore.
I remember Kerry Wood coming up in 1998, and talking about how much easier it was to "throw good" with the Cubs...
Paxton will run off the rails in some games. Will it be 20% of the time, which would be the same ratio as Price and Holland, or 40% of the time, so that he remains an exciting BOR starter? I'm optimistic. You've got the specific reasons why; make your own judgment as to their validity. :- )
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do you look at what he HAS done or what he MIGHT do?
Pax has TOR stuff. 'Nuff said. Having him throw 200 more AAA ionnings with MLB TOR stuff is silly.
If he's ever going to become a TOR guy, he need to be throwing in the bigs, against Holidays and Cabreras.
The "he needs more seasoning" argument wears me out. Does he need another MPH? Is there a delivery flaw that is MLB deadly?
Man, give him the ball and sit back while you watch him grow.