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Q.  Just the fa'ax, ma'am.  What happened against the Cardinals?

A.  Paxton came out daring them to hit letter-high fastballs.  They couldn't get a sniff.

In fact, in the first inning with 2 out, nobody on, and Matt Holliday digging in, Paxton worked the count to 1 ball, 2 strikes ... and fired a 97 MPH fastball right down the middle.  Holliday just barely foul-tipped it back, and Blowers laughed.  "James is showing some attitude here.  Triple-deck stadium, NL East leaders, and he's coming right at them."

Paxton destroyed Holliday with a called yakker on the next pitch, blew down Beltran and Molina to start the next inning ... then he struck out three people in one-at bat:

The pitch sequence here:

• 95 MPH lefty fastball high = 98 MPH righty fastball low.  Freese wanted it, couldn't catch up, 0-1
• Yakker = 0-2
• Yakker RIGHT DOWN THE HEART, struck out the umpire, as well as Freese -- but count 1-2
• Having shown two yakkers, NOW 97 MPH, blew him down

Which, hopefully, clarifies for everybody in the room that we are indeed talking about a hyper-dangerous left hand pitcher when we are talking about James Paxton.

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Q.  Inning 3, though, he hit a speed bump?

A.  Paxton got the first two hitters ... 8 in a row.  Baseball history's 28th* perfect game was as good as ours.

Then the PITCHER "oops'ied" a swinging bunt past Paxton, who did an ugly dive, stumble, and barrel roll ... safe at first.  Mike Blowers groaned even as the ball was rolling.  First hit has to be that?

Paxton walked the next man.  On a 3-2 pitch, the fastball was WAYYYYYY high.   :ulp:

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Q.  Why :ulp:

A.  This game ... (1) felt like, and ... (2) was ... a picture-perfect reproduction of a 1991 Randy Johnson game, kiddies.  Dr. D was alive then, with Pterodactyl and Australopithecus and Wild Big Unit.  I'm tellin ya!  This Was It.

Randy would have a no-hitter going, and then there would be a lucky hit to tick him off.  There'd be a walk.  And the FEELING was then that --- > Randy would never get another out.

That's what it felt like here.  When James Paxton has something weird happen, it FEELS like he's going to come off the rails.  

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Q.  Did he?

A.  He didn't.  He was out of the inning in two pitches.

Whether he might have come off the rails, we'll discuss next article.  ... there were a couple of other times when he yanked some pitches off the zone, heading off the rails.  It felt like he was doomed.  Each time, Willis and/or Zunino scurried out there and put him right, very quickly.

But Paxton's reaction to bad luck, and to control frazz-outs, that was fascinating, and key to his projection, in my opinion.

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Q.  He wound up with a shutout?

A.  Six-inning shutout, against the NL East leaders, yes.  His two game lines:

• Sep 7 Tampa Bay - 6ip 2r 1er 1bb 3k
• Sep 14 @St Louis - 6 ip 0r 0er 2bb 5k

Tampa has one of the majors' three or four best anti-lefty batting orders, so those are exciting results.

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Q.  How much does that matter, two diamond-sparkly starts to begin your career?

A.  We moshed off Bill James a month ago.  Here's that article.  An excerpt:

Q.  What's the exec sum of that study?

A.  Starting with the 3B camera angle:  If a pitcher had an outstanding first two starts, his chances of being a great pitcher did go way up.  (That's not the same thing as saying that two lockdowns mean that you're going to be Juan Marichal; your chances go up.)

It was remarkable, though ... of 2,200+ starting pitchers studied, the best 14 debuts (first two starts) included:

• Juan Marichal
• Fernando Valenzuela
• Dave McNally
• Dennis Eckersley
• Luis Tiant

and

• Rick Reuschel 
• John Hiller
• Wayne Simpson

and 

• Some other pretty decent SP's

Which is pretty WOW.  Just two awesome starts to start with, and you have a 50% chance to be a TOR starter, and a 30% chance to be a HOF type?

Which ... not exactly.  But!  It suggests that if a kid comes out of the gate really breathing fire, it does mean --- > eyes slideways.  Real nice chance he's going to be an impact pitcher.

- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/taijuan-splash-houston#sthash.fU...

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