In two games, our diaper dandy (tip 'o the hat to D. Vitale) has faced a weak lineup and a quite decent one. He's shown the ability to bee dang tough throwing two pitches in his arsenal (being a bit uncomfortable with the other two for MLB-types, as of yet) and w/o much "pitchability," which you would expect from a diaper dandy (See Gooden when he was 19-20).
"Stuff" ain't everything (see Moyer), but it counts. Right now, Taijuan gets 'em out with stuff, hard stuff. It will take him about the next 5 days to figure out that cheating bats are dead bats when the #2 rolls up there. It may be that Zunino was under orders to keep the yakker rate relatively low for now (See KISS). Expect a slight to moderate spike next time out.
Remind me again which Upton would be a fair swap for Taijuan AND Franklin?
Kate Upton might be close (see below).......but none of those baseball-playing Uptons fit that scenario.
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/gossip/la-et-mg-kate-upton-model-of...
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Inning 4
I read somewhere that the Royals have the best contact rate in the AL, or lowest K rate, or something, and ... obviously Butler, Gordon, and Hosmer are a rough ride for any righty.
They adjusted, in-game, to the fact that Taijuan was throwing only two pitches, both of them hard. (This is what Texas and LAA do to annoy Felix: focus on his 93 fastball and 91 "changeup." They start their bats "in time" to the expected pitch, tipping their caps on the curve and slider. Even you could hit 95 MPH in the cage if you started your bat like a metronome.)
Despite the fact that the Royals were cheating, and that Taijuan was cheerfully allowing them to do so, they still didn't do much.
..........
They wound up with four runs in the 4th, but as Gordon pointed out in the Shout Box, it was the cheapest four runs you've seen all year:
- Leadoff walk (after Taijuan sat in the dugout for 20 minutes)
- Hosmer soft line-drive single, on inside 90 MPH cutter (see upcoming article on Taijuan's cut fastball)
- Butler seeing-eye grounder past SS for a single, on a knee-high 95 fastball (Brendan Ryan woulda got it)
- 95 outside fastball on the black, Moustakas tried to pull it, routine out
- Lousy curve ball, skied to LF for an out
- 94 MPH inside jam pitch JAMMED David Lough, who bloinked a parachute job juuuuust inside the RF foul line for a double
- Low 95 fastball --- > pounded into the dirt in front of the plate, hopped through Miller and Franklin for a 1B (Brendan Ryan woulda got it)
- Caught stealing, inning over
There ain't any way you're going to do less with the bat, and get more on the scoreboard. So far, Taijuan has thrown 149 pitches in the big leagues, and not a single one of them has been launched.
The point isn't that Taijuan is invincible. The point is just that his fastball and cutter are AWFULLY hard to square up. They can guess fastball, get fastball and still get the bat knocked out of their hands.
.
Inning 5
Escobar guessed fastball, hit one as hard as he can, but .... it was like 40 feet short of the fence. Fly ball out, center field. See our remarks on Jarrod Dyson.
Gordon got on top of a high fastball, pulled it hard, but ... didn't square it up. Routine groundball out, 4-3.
Taijuan rolled a terrible curve ball high to Bonifacio, then gave in with a 94 fastball Right. Down. the Heart. and Bonifacio tatoo'ed it. Right to Dustin Ackley, who I think stepped back two paces to catch it. See our remarks on Jarrod Dyson.
.
Dr's Diagnosis - "Any resemblance to pitching is purely coincidental"
By now you can write the diagnosis yourself. Like Rocky Balboa standing in the middle of the ring, just whaling with lefts and rights to the body, all technique forgotten an hour ago ... Taijuan was just firing his fastball and cutter, hoping they'd hit the zone ... any resemblance to MLB(TM) pitching was purely coincidental.
For Rocky, the primal approach worked out okay. Due to special circumstances.
For Taijuan, the question becomes "what happens when people have to deal with a Pedro curve, and they can't cheat any more? Or he rolls a Clemens splitter out of dry dock? Or he can throw that 97 MPH where he threw it to Gordon, first inning? Or when he learns to expand the zone with two strikes?"
The Good Ole Boyz will tell you, to a man, that Taijuan has #1 starter potential. When they say #1 starter, they don't mean Jered Weaver; when they say #1 starter, they mean Justin Verlander. Dr. D agrees with this, and he has told you exactly why. Tell him where he's going wrong.
Cheers,
Jeff
Comments
Yep, on the shelf. He came back to throw 40 innings in AAA this year and did well in that rehab stint. I'm sure the Yankees are confidently placing him in their rotation for next Spring, and with Campos back and seemingly healthy as well they certainly look to have the better end of the Montero/Noesi trade than we got. But it sure didn't help them for the last two years. The shame about losing Pineda is not that we traded him, but that the MOTO right-handed bat we thought we were trading him for never materialized.
Of course, with a healthy Pineda and a lovely Fister on this team, who would need any of our current pitching prospects? Felix / Kuma/ Fister/ Pineda/ Erasmo is good enough, doncha think?
I don't mind trading great pitchers away, I mind doing it and having nothing to show for it.
If Walker goes, it has to be for a legit monster. I understand that Upton was not that, but there are only 25 spots on the roster. Every other piece you have is for replacing one you have with a better one, either via promotion or trade. They aren't rock collections or old-timey comic books to store in an attic. They don't accrue more value over time. They're commodities with a short shelf life. Montero two years ago was worth Pineda. Montero now is worth an old newspaper and some wadded up chewing gum.
If Franklin comes down with Dustin Ackley Disease, what's he worth then? Especially since we have Miller who can shift to second which helps him defensively (and helps us defensively at SS as well if Taylor is coming up to replace him). If Walker goes down with an injury like Pineda, his worth drops to nothing for 2+ seasons. This is the problem we're having with Hultzen right now. Put Hultzen in place of Harang this year and we're several games closer to .500.
So yes, I am a fan of keeping all our young players, just don't get upset if they then take longer than you want to figure it out, or stay healthy, or become impact players. Talent isn't enough. We have a TON of talent. Name me all the talent we have that is maximizing said talent. His name doth be Kyle of the Seagers. No other talent (Franklin, Miller, Zunino, Farquhar, Wilhelmsen, Capps, Medina, Noesi, Maurer, Erasmo, et al) is maximizing their talent. NONE of them.
Could be just because they're young and raw. Could be because our major league staff can't coach em up. Could be that they'll never be able to tap all that talent.
But if they never will, then we should trade them based on potential, right? And if our staff can't get them to max out, then we should trade them even if they can tap it somewhere else, because we need players who are already maxxing out and don't need our coaching to get it right.
The only way they should stay is if youth is the only barrier to their success. Who here feels confident that having 5 lineup spots filled with under-27s, three-fifths of the rotation spots filled by players with less than a year of functional major-league experience and an entire bullpen where Wilhelmsen (last year pre-arb) is the most veteran presence in it will bring us into playoff competition in 2014?
If you aren't, then you might want to trade some guys.
Of course, Fister and Pineda and Choo and As-Cab and Adam Jones and Tillman and the rest all mock us for even contemplating trades...
Walker looks like a near-certainty to join that list if we let him go. But can we afford to let him stay?
~G
Would I rather have Walker+Choo or Shields+Stanton?
Hmmm.
I wonder if Ackley has more value now than Franklin?
When you have built a stable of near ready ballplayers, you can't be afraid to move them in and out of Tacoma. It can do a world of good. Ackley, since the callup, has posted a .766 OPS (not counting yesterday). That's identical to what he posted as a rookie. Smoak has hit .806 over the past year, most of which followed his callup. When Ackley went down to Tacoma, we brought in Nick, who immediately, as a raw 22 year old rookie, fixed the production problem. Now Nick is scuffling, and maybe he goes down to Tacoma, and Ackley slides back in to 2nd, or maybe Chris moves to 2nd if Ack's needed in the OF. Keep Brendan Ryan on the bench. But these send downs seem to do a world of good. Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we have another option of sending Smoak down if he relapses? Those who suggested we start Carp at first and leave Smoak in Tacoma to start the season were right, if Carp WINS the job. Handing Smoak first base was a mistake. Compete! That's what they do in Seahawksville. Matt Flynn was NOT handed the quarterback job. He lost it. In training camp. Or rather, Wilson WON it.
I imagine a Mariner world in which everyone in the organization competes for the top job. No one is "handed" first base, or "anointed" as the team savior. You gotta earn that job, and keep earning it, and everyone in the organization earns it. And in this world, there are no trades. None. You don't toss away Pinedas and Fisters for something you think you need more. That's what waiver wires and veteran releases and free agency is for. When someone is trading you someone, in the back of his mind he's thinking, "I really don't need this guy." Now, maybe he's wrong, and you get a Jaso, or a Carp real cheap. But probably you are just getting someone else's castoff.
This system has ill served the Mariners, pretty much its whole history, with a rare exception here and there. I say we junk it. Fill, fill, fill the pipeline, buy free agents here and there to meet immediate needs. When our guys run out of options, or get too expensive for our budget...well, them's the breaks. It was a heckuva run, buddy, and best of luck to you. But we aren't going to trick this system of trading assets for needs. We end up needing our assets, time and again, and trying to figure out what to do with our "met needs". If you have a problem, you don't trade it. You send it down, or if you can't send it down, you release it.
This will really work if you have a top notch scouting organization. Hey! What a coincidence! It will also help to find the right manager to understand such a system, and can motivate properly within it. That may be a bit trickier.
Recent slump included, he's basically a league average bat, with a league average glove (better range/a few more errors) at a glovey position. He doesn't have improvement in him?
He's had a lousy month....and now we're going to Choo him?
It's what got us in this mess to begin with.
but the solution is to get better at trading, not to stop it altogether. This team will not get to the promised land by cutting itself off from avenues of improvement. Remember, one of the problems we've had is getting top tier free agents to even accept our business card. We already fight with one hand tied behind our back, we don't want to try it with both of them trussed up.
Personally, I think you need to use every avenue available to improve your team. It's like gun control. The problem isn't solved by "banning" guns, all those beastly, naughty guns that go around killing people as if by magic. No, you address the bad behavior of the people that misuse them. So with trading. If you have a bad history at trades, you don't ban trading, you either get better at it or put someone else in charge who does it better.
Now you might emphasize one avenue of talent acquisition, one you're better at now, over others. But you don't elevate it to your sole method of improvement. Using roster and farm system redundancies via trade to meet needs and balance them out is a time-honored tradition in baseball for a reason. Sometimes it just makes good sense. If you have a GM who simply can't do it (the reference is theoretical, not specifically to Z) despite remedial opportunities you probably need a new GM.
What this team needs is not just talent. It needs fruitful talent. AAA is full of talented guys who will never be fruitful enough for MLB. So far we've been great at accumulating talent but not training and deploying it as effectively as most MLB clubs seem to be able to do. If we don't solve THAT problem, then Houston, we really DO have a problem.
Well put.
Only thing is there's been a tendency to focus on worst case scenario or best case scenario. If you are asking "what if he gets Ackley disease" you also should ask "what if he has a more normal adjustment" and "what if he Seagers his way to steady improvement" and "what if it just clicks and he doesn't look back". There's a wide range of possibilities that we may not be used to seeing here but they're still possible. We're due some healthy success', even if in isolation Ackley's getting lost doesn't increase the chances for Franklin. Well, besides the 2nd base job opening enough to try him there.
Here (and over at MC), I get the sense of a gradual divergence. Some people are starting to "get" what prospect development is like. Others seem to be stuck on this page where they assume prospect development is nice and linear. So, here's an example of 4 players - (none of them Mariners)
Player 1: (what everyone wants/expects with prospects)
.795
.796
.868
Player 2: (typical sophomore slump profile)
.849
.708
.814
.771
Player 3: (fairly typical "rushed" uber-prospect - who NEVER regained his initial breakout level)
.733 (45 games)
.593 (50 games)
.894
.784
.686
.745
Player 4: (notice how linear turned into schizophrenic?)
.816
.899
.799
.898
.785
Player 1 is Freddie Freeman, who started well and improved two years later.
Player 2 is Jason Heyward - who was a MUCH higher rated prospect than Freeman, but regressed horribly in year 2.
Player 3 is BJ Upton, who has been extremely pedestrian since his .894 age 22 season.
Player 4 is Justin Upton, who seems to swing 100 points of OPS every year.
Understand - these are all "ELITE" prospects - guys that BA had in their top 10 overall rankings. They are all success stories, but outside of Freeman, the ride hasn't been particularly smooth for any of them. This isn't about Seattle "mis-handling" of prospects. This is about how INDIVIDUAL prospects progress in volatile, completely unpredictable ways. But, the fact a kid comes up and hits .800 his first year and .700 his next is *NOT* by itself evidence that he was mishandled in any way. Player development is messy and volatile and unpredictable.
The SAME team that watched Heyward lose 150 points of OPS in his 2nd season watched Freeman exactly repeat his debut numbers, then add 70 points in year 3.
Nobody on the planet knows what Franklin and Miller and Ackley and Smoak and Seager and Zunino are going to produce next year. Just like nobody knows the specific year that a player will see age decline have a major impact on his production.
"As a group", kids under 27 will tend to improve. But, not all of them will. "As a group", 32 year olds will tend to get worse. But, again, not all of them will.
Mind you, when you have not produced a decent bat from your farm in over a decade, the evidence is strong that you have a problem. But, today, the Mariners are actually seeing "normal" prospect development -- with the offensive player production totals suppressed somewhat due to the park. But, at least for the first time this millenium, the club has a chance to actually get "normal" - chaotic, frustrating and delighting unpredictable prospect results. It's a WHALE of a lot better than dealing with the complete certainty that your prospects are going to tank.
We're chill inducing mastery of a simple game. Really I thought it was a 0-1 run start for him if only his curves are breaking right once he brought it in. It seems this changing arsenal tactic is Walkers own preference, since it's happened with 2 different catchers. He's doing it by inning, or times through the lineup now. How nasty can he be when he starts doing it by batter, having learned the league a bit. Having Zunino to catch him, who's also still learning the leagues batters...
I think our pitching will be better next year with Zunino's presence alone, keeping a good rhythm and helping the pitcher out with good framing. Not as sure about his blocking and throwing yet, or his bat. Loving his game calling enough to not be concerned about all of that yet anyway.
Something that bothers me about the pitcher hoarding philosophy is that the Oakland Orcs are masters at it. It is painful to say anything positive or nice about the Orcs, but there is a lesson to be learned here and we should not ignore painful but necessary subject matter. Whether it is through instinct, or a sort of horde or hive intelligence, the Orcs sense the need for good pitching all the time, and react accordingly. Recently, like many corrupt organizations, the Orcs reached new depths of depravity and began profiting from an underage worker named Sonny Gray.
Sonny Gray is a 12 year old little league pitching phenom who has mastered the fastball and curveball, but is not yet old enough to drive or shave.
This little kid pitches seven inning shutouts out of the 5 spot in the Orcs rotation. Our No. 5 starter has routinely been TKO'd in the second inning. This is a leading reason why the Orcs are in first place and we are in fourth.
I blame this whole season on the initial loss of the craftiest and clutchest young pitchers in our system, Erasmo and Hultzen. Instead of taking their rightful places in the rotation, they went to Peoria and put ice on their arms. The backup plan has not been pretty. It reminds me of the finale scene in Iron Man 2 when War Machine was surrounded by baddies and he busted out his secret weapon, a bunker busting missile, and it fizzled and popped and died out. Iron Man, who was better prepared, had a secret laser weapon that did work. It gets old just to punt the season and wait for next year whenever a pitcher goes chicken killer on us.
Imagine a world where the unthinkable happens, and Felix misses his start with some shoulder soreness and Jack says "Its just a precaution" and then we surely know we won't see Felix for a year or so. Imagine then that Iwakuma takes his place, and a new T-800 is activated in Tacoma for the 5 spot instead of guys who were DFA'd by their national league teams. I see a utopian Mariner world where there is a Mercury in every garage, a chicken in every crock pot, and the sun never sets on the Mariners pitching staff or at least on the distant and varied countries they come from. A bullpen that can withstand a Wilhelmson implosion. Swing men who are better than most teams back end starters. In this world, bad pitching is a thing of the past.
But, until cloning is perfected, or factory made cyborgs are allowed to pitch, pitchers should be hoarded at every opportunity, not invested in bat speculation.
Can you say it with me: "You can't have too much pitching".
http://www.theledger.com/article/20130803/COLUMNISTS0604/130809724
If you want to be like the Rays, you should do the things that the Rays do.
I don't think not trading is the answer. It's being on the other side of trades. We need to trade quantity for quality now ie. receiving Fister. We're not in a position to trade away production much but in position to trade Prospects plus spare parts for production. Keep trading but get the best player in trades.
Sandy, we had the same thought and I posted first (by mere minutes, while you were still typing, I'm sure) but you put it much better. I don't see why anyone would think Ackley's path is likely for anyone. Possible, sure. Something to fear but not to focus on.
Didn't most people think Seager was brought up too soon? Mishandled, as it were? Franklin and Miller as well? So much mishandling of Prospects. Walker wasn't ready either? Nor Zunino. Pineda before that. (I know, that thinking isn't as common here) You can read it in many places how rushed they've all been and yet they seem to be doing what you'd expect in normal range of struggles and success. Prospects who weren't rushed fail too, for every team. Failure really hasn't been the most common here this year. Even as rushed as many think all of them were they're all looking like they belong yet have things to learn. That's exactly when they should be up. Ackley/Smoak/montero/Saunders/Seager is not the complete list anymore. Expectation that your blue chip Prospects dominate and don't look back are unrealistic so of course you can't ink numbers for them after a few months. Can you really do that for anyone though? If you really think Seager is the only certain block and isn't impressive anyway... that's assuming 100% failure of the rest, isn't it? I think it's more realistic to think that some will fail and some succeed in varying degrees between Zunino, Smoak, Franklin, Miller, Ackley, Saunders, Almonte, and the next wave. Expecting 100% failure is unrealistic just as expecting 100% success is.
Did you make that one up? That's too good for this blog...
Gracias amigo.
You can consider any deal.
Isn't that the way baseball works? That when 30 GM's buy into a Stephen Strasburg, you can get just about anything for him?
All mine.
She is clearly a 5-Tool player.
moe
I imagine a Mariner world in which everyone in the organization competes for the top job. No one is "handed" first base, or "anointed" as the team savior. You gotta earn that job, and keep earning it, and everyone in the organization earns it. - See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/scouting-report-taijuan-walker-9...
Of course what the Seahawks and A's do...
It's an interesting point. Does Billy Beane studiously avoid trading non-arb players he likes?
The ride isn't smooth, which Zduriencik also /cosigns ... as you can tell by the rope he's given Smoak and Ackley.
Great post.
First thing out of Valle's mouth before the Houston start, "It's too bad Mike Zunino isn't catching him...", with an air of, "This start may not go too well..."
Still good
When discussing if Walker should be brought up. I wanted it to be Zunino behind the dish if he was coming up and am glad it's worked out that way 66% presumably. Also commented that it could be good for him to have experience pitching to Blanco in a start. It's all conjecture really, but I think that aspect seems to be going ideally.
Wondered at the time that starters approaching pitch limits don't debut in the bullpen often. It used to be that many more started out there and practically none do now unless there are other mitigating circumstances. This seems better, but had the choice been shut him down after 1 start or acclimate him to MLB in the bullpen why is it most teams would have just shut him down?
Is that he has stashed and is now using Daric Barton. How'd he do that? Barton is now 27 years old. He started and played every day for Beane for a couple years, maybe three if you piece it all together. He had some good seasons, and he's been stewing away in Sacramento for two years now until getting a September callup...and is playing. Now how can Beane do that? Every other team team on this planet would have lost Barton or given up on him the way we lost Carp, and Tuiasosopo for that matter. Now, I'm not saying Barton is a real keeper...but he may be. He's got some skills that you don't lose - getting on base. He's been an Oakland A since 2007, and he's been up and down the A's I-5 corridor like a yo yo. I was really surprised to see Daric is a mere 27. I figured he'd have to be 30 by now.
I'm not totally sure of how Beane does it (I think he's had a lucky streak recently - his A's teams have been pretty mediocre actually in recent years - he just doesn't swing down to the 60 win level the way we do). But I think the way he's scrupulously held onto Barton, going from "first baseman of the future, to flame out and being replaced via the scrap heap, to organizational depth, all before seeing his 28th birthday, may offer a clue.
And it won't surprise me at all if Barton still ends up being the A's first baseman of the future.
Just like the M's trying to execute a bunt, we think we know what we're doing, sacrificing an out (a valuable commodity) for an immediate need (a base) - but the whole thing then blows up in our face. It's obvious this organization can't do either reliably well. So...stop trying to get lucky, because this team will invariably end up with both an out and no additional base. Why even go there? Keep your talent, and trust it. I've got 3 decades of ineptitude telling me I'm right.
discussing American involvement in foreign wars (never, never, never. There are no circumstances, and I can argue back to WWI if I must) I would admit I could give a qualified maybe, if it's a player we have no intention of keeping anyway and have decided to let him go already Otherwise, the Mariner trade history reminds me of the definition of insanity. I can't expect a different outcome than what I always see.
But, with all the AAA caveats, when you can fill your needs with young AAA players, you are pretty much guaranteed of getting replacement level help with good upside potential. I like replacement level with upside when I have a roster problem that needs fixing. We did it in June/July and almost climbed back into the race when plan A blew up. But if we have to go trading in a time like that (cough, Fister), other GMs can practically smell our desperation.
Political views are divergent and .... divisive. One of the reasons that I enjoy this blog is its non-political nature. I appreciate everyone's efforts to keep it that way. Just sayin....