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Note well that Jack Zduriencik selected Mike Zunino with exactly the same draft slot pick, and that Zduriencik was not thrilled with the pick, either.
Not sure what you mean.
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Gordon's thread on Brandon Morrow evolved into a discussion of high draft picks in general.
JPax kicked it off by rueing the day Bill Bavasi was ever given any authority over the amateur draft. Gordon rewarded that comment with this devastating factoid:
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Whenever I'm writing about draft snafus. Morrow was definitely '06, the sequel that wasn't quite as terrible but still pretty bad. Nothing's gonna top 2005:
1 - J. Upton: 15.3 WAR
2 - A. Gordon: 20.9 WAR
3 - Clement: -1.2 WAR
4 - R. Zimmerman: 32.2 WAR
5 - Braun - 35.5 WAR
6 - Romero - 9.8 WAR
7 - Tulo - 30.2 WARJust. Brutal. I was stoked about Zimm, and fine with Tulo as a fallback and likely selection. Boy did that NOT work out. But then, none of Bavasi's guys did.
- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/morrow-lament#sthash.Eyw3dVw4.dpuf
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That's a show-stopper. And you wonder what went wrong that you could make such a decision, to draft a Jeff Clement.
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Soviet 64 Magazine
In chess, you analyze your games after the fact --- > not just to find mistakes, but to find mistakes in thought structure.
It does you no good at all to slap your forehead and say "Oh man! If I'd just played Knight to g5 there, I'd have won!" On the other hand, if you discover, "Oh! If I develop my queenside next time before attacking on the kingside, I'll do better!" then you have improved as a player and will win more games.
To say that we should have drafted Troy Tulowitzki rather than Jeff Clement, that's well and good ...
Not to marginalize the discussion about Bavasi's draft picks ... that is an insight in itself, that Jack Zduriencik (and co.) much better with high draft picks than was Bill Bavasi (and co.)
But what's next?
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Top 6 Rounds of a Roto Draft
At the time, we all disliked the Morrow pick, as you can Google for yourself. SSI complained, before the draft, that Morrow's toughness was open to serious question. We were all uncomfortable with the pick, but the kid did have an easy 97 MPH, so we hoped for the best.
Similar with Jeff Clement. We were all uneasy with it, but hoping for the best. The pick was not unreasonable! Back at the time of the draft, we asked James, already a Red Sox VP, about the Clement pick. "We didn't evaluate Clement because we knew he'd be long gone. Catchers are always risky, but you gotta have a catcher, right?" Note well that Jack Zduriencik selected Mike Zunino with exactly the same draft slot pick, and that Zduriencik was not thrilled with the pick, either.
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Going back to the chess approach, you ask "How would I change my thinking structure so as to avoid the Morrow and Clement picks next time?"
You have two choices:
- Factor in baseball makeup much more strongly. No local sabermigo has the right to complain about Bill Bavasi selecting players whose main "flaws" were attached to baseball makeup. They themselves would be grabbing all such "value" picks with both hands.
- Factor in risk aversion much more strongly.
Most of the grizzled baseball people were SCARED OF Brandon Morrow and Jeff Clement. It was an intuition thing.
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You know, there's a roto idea ... in an AL-only draft, use your first 6 picks to get safe returns. Who wins the league?
- I got 3 Mike Trouts and 3 Dustin Ackleys = 3 x 1.00 and 3 x 25c = $3.75
- You got 6 Robinson Canos = 6x90c = $5.40
With huge investments, it's about avoiding the land mines -- if you get $1.00 back or 90c back, either way is okay, but get something nice. Morrow and Clement would have been avoided by most Jack Zdurienciks with top-5, even top-10 picks. Jack Zduriencik is going to need HUGE value to take Brandon Morrow ... he's going to need to get Morrow with what, about the #17 pick?
Dustin Ackley hasn't worked out so far, but none of us would fault the draft pick. There was no flaw in thought structure there; you'd take Dustin Ackley every single time. It's the player development system we worry about.
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This is a simple principle: Get 90c Players With Your First 6 Roto Draft Picks. You almost wonder if this is all that Jack Zduriencik has done that's been special.
Very rare, in chess, to get such a simple principle that pays off so consistently. A Golden Principle like that goes on the wall with a plaque of its own.
Comments
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Ackley was always the pick, but he was also thought of as unflappable and a leader in addition to his college-hitter-of-the-decade credentials.
Seager? Gamer, hard-nosed.
Franklin? dirt-dog, born to play baseball, arrogant cuss
Miller? Leader, baseball rat
Zunino? See: Miller
Heck, this year we drafted DJ Peterson (chip on shoulder, baseball enthusiast, loves to compete) and O'Neill (Canadian gamer who gives 100% in everything). Austin Wilson might be a little passive/too intellectual, in the Ackley mold of over-thinking things, but with the tools at his disposal how do you not try to teach him to see-ball, crush-ball?
We take "baseball player" VERY seriously in our draft qualifications for top picks. I like that. Tools are nice, but if you can't play the game, or don't love it, then I probably don't want you on my team. All of our guys want to Be All They Can Be.
All we have to do is help them get there.
~G
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And if you see what Correa and especially Buxton are doing, you'll know why. I think Buxton is the best hitting prospect in the minors, and I was DYING to have him fall to us, especially after Houston passed on him at #1. It was not to be. Zunino was the fallback plan.
And some of Jack's post-draft comments validate that. Not that they didn't like Zunino, but that if Buxton had been available, Zunino would not have been a Mariner. There's a lot of risk in drafting a catcher that high, and a limited ceiling for the most part.
~G