Gordon says that Jonathan Mayo's mock draft at mlb.com tracks pretty closely with his thinking, and I agree.
I mean, not that it tracks with Gordon's thinking (which I can't verify), but that it tracks with what most of the "experts" seem to be concluding around this funny little World Wide Web of ours.
Meaning: Mayo's top 10 are pretty much the 10 that are the "consensus" at the top.
College arms: Jonahtan Gray (Oklahoma), Mark Appel (Stanford), Braden Shipley (Nevada)
College bats: Kris Bryant (San Diego), Colin Moran (North Carolina)
Prep arms: Kohl Stewart (Texas), Trey Ball (Indiana)
Prep bats: Clint Frazier (Georgia), Reese McGuire (Washington), Austin Meadows (Georgia)
***
Out of those 10, who would be most likely to drop to No. 12 (Mariners)?
I'm guessing: Shipley (may end up as a reliever); Ball (risk of teen arms); and Meadows (just 'cause most folks seem to like Frazier better).
So here's Shipley:
Ball:
Meadows (he's an OF who could stick in CF):
***
Assuming those guys are gone, who's left?
Interestingly, two guys the Mariners drafted in 2010. Gordon's top nominee, D.J. Peterson of New Mexico, was picked in the 33rd round that year, and Ryne Stanek of Arkansas was selected in the 3rd round (before James Paxton and Stephen Pryor, mind you).
Peterson is a 3b for the Lobos, but will end up at 1b/DH as a pro, everyone says.
Hunter Renfroe of Mississippi State (converted catcher, now corner OF).
Stanek.
And finally California prep RHP Phil Bickford, whom many are now connecting to Seattle.
Of course, now that I've done this, it will end up being none of these. But this ought to tide you over until draft time.
In one place. Thanks for the legwork, Spec!
I still think it'll be Peterson because of our familiarity with him, but if he goes before we draft that opens up a raft of options. Or if somebody else starts taking HS pitchers earlier, for instance, and dropping multiple good hitting options to us.
A few hours until we can dig into our newest top prospect nominee and see how the next wave of talent to land on the farm starts to take shape.
~G
In the video you provided of Austin Meadows he doesn't use his body very much in the swing, mostly just arms. Looks a bit stiff, seems to lack electricity, but if it works for him being so quiet and still able to generate power so be it. At first glance not excited to pick him.
Gammons is saying that the Royals have a deal in place for Bickford: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/342704043640098818
Thanks for makin' my day brighter. One more good hitter to get to us. Somebody ahead of us can take Ball too, while they're at it.
~G
Like he can barely wait for the ball to leave the pitchers hand. His attack mode is a stark contrast to the previous video of Meadows who sits back and waits for the ball in a more defensive, patient approach.
... to take Colin Moran at 1-1. At least, that is some of the grumblings that I'm hearing. Looks like they are going to use the same approach that they used last year and go with a guy who is willing to sign for less than slot, and then use what's left over to nail down some good 2nd - 5th round picks. The one thing that puzzles me about that approach though is that the Astros are in dire need of some frontline pitching, and to take Moran over either Appel or Gray does not sound like a good idea.
I LOVE that about him. Not like mad at the world in a Milton Bradley way, just... he has quite the chip on his shoulder after the scholarship fiasco he went through to wind up at NM in the first place, and it fuels him. He goes up to the plate every time looking for the hit that will bring validation. All this, "he can't play 3rd, plays in a weak conference" stuff is just more fuel for that fire.
Youkilis had the same sort of, "does he have power with wood, he can't really play 3rd, he looks weird" kind of questions. Peterson just looks to me like that kind of player. Yes, he dives for pitches off the plate when he gets too hungry for hits. He can learn. He has incredible hitting skills and is a worker on D too.
I'm not gonna be at all unhappy if he winds up here. He's another baseball rat, so he'd fit right in with us.
~G
If Appel wants several million more to sign than he does, and Gray with this Adderall thing might have PED concerns around his performance, then one of the college hitters suddenly seems like a far better option. If they want pitching, I'd take Stewart. He just looks like a beast.
But if they go Bryant or Moran first overall and leave the arms to someone else, I wouldn't be shocked, even WITH their pitching need.
Gonna be a fun night.
~G
... has the Mariners passing on Peterson, Meadows, Stanek and Renfroe to take LH Cali prep SS J.P. Crawford
I assume that would un-brighten your day, G? -- but he says it's more of a scenario than a prediction
If we take JP Crawford. >:-|
Don't even joke.
~G
That bad? I would be good with Crawford if they could have him stay back a little and not sway into the ball so much. At least one of the videos showed this, another showed him with a very open stance stepping in with not as much sway. Rather Dominic Smith, Peterson or Ball though :)
I love his short powerful stroke, and the two hand follow through.
I think Meadows 2nd. He looks light on his feet, has a cannon of an arm and he has a moon shot type of stroke. Long and levered. If he's got an eye, he mashes and walks and defends. He's only got to hit .260 to be very valuable in that scenario. Does he have an eye?
Peterson looks like a boom or bust type of guy. As a draft pick and as a hitter. Adam Dunn, from the wrong side of the plate, perhaps. I love Dunn (or did), don't know if I love this guy.
Crawford better be Ozzie with the glove, or Vizquel, because MLB fastballs are going to eat him for lunch.
He's just not...
He has F-Mart style bomb potential with the upside of... Reid Brignac? Grant Green? Like... second tier production or first tier failure. I just don't like his swing, and while you can build up a kid they can also tear themselves down like Francisco did. I get the Jo Mier vibe off of Crawford, and being a Cali kid he's already had the best coaching money can buy. It's not like he's from Maine or something. I don't like his ability to suddenly get it together.
He's a toolsy guy with bloodlines. There are worse things, but I think he's a long way off. Crawford can hit high fastballs, but low breaking pitches or low pitches in general are gonna mess him up. That sway you're talking about.
He might very well work out into a decent SS with good OBP skills and a little pop. But if he goes to college is he gonna get drafted higher in his junior year than he would be this year? If not, then why are you investing in a prospect who will be a worse prospect 3 years from now than he is now?
If we take Crawford, then I'll assume it's a signability pick because we didn't like anyone who got to us and wanted to roll extra money to later picks. If Peterson, Renfroe AND Frazier all got to us and we STILL take Crawford then yes, I'll be annoyed.
Very annoyed. ;-)
~G
...but I'm changing my mind and taking Meadows over Frazier. They both look like beasts, but in the videos, Meadows just looks like he isn't even trying (but in a good way) and that there are untapped reserves of potential waiting to come out.
I have no idea who we should take at #12, as we have a choice of the leftovers after 11 picks. We seem to do well drafting middle infielders and pitchers, but not MOTO bats. I'd like one please, and on a fast track to the bigs. Are Meadows and Frazier considered to be ~4 years out? Or a little faster, like Trout?
:)
Nailed it, G.