The Astros are a bad baseball team.
They will likely lose 100.
They will very likely NOT lose 120.
In 2012 they had an 83 OPS+ and an 83 ERA+. They won 55.
(In 2003 Detroit had an 83 OPS+ and an 81 ERA+, and won 43 just fyi).
Last season, they BEGAN a complete rebuild - Carlos Lee the only vet remaining, (he hit .747 - a 103 OPS+).
But, let's look at what their current lineup did LAST year, (age this year is in parens).
Player - (age) - OPS - OPS+
Jason Castro (26) - .735 - (100)
Brett Wallace (26) - .746 - (102)
Jose Altuve (23) - .740 - (102)
Ronny Cedeno (30) - .741 (105) - and ONLY guy whose 2012 was obviously flukey - career 71 OPS+
Matt Dominguez (23) - .787 (111)
Chris Carter (26) - .864 (137) - only 260 PAs ... part of the As winning team
Justin Maxwell (29) - .764 (105)
Rick Ankiel (33) - .694 (85)
Carlos Pena (35) - .684 (95)
From an individual standpoint, it can be argued that at this point, other than Cedeno, Carlos Pena is the WORST hitter on the Astros. But, they are young. They were all nearly dead average in 2012. But, the club got rid of the spate of 65 OPS+ black holes. The Astro offense is likely BETTER than the 2012 version.
The rotation is a couple of decent arms and a lot of "don't know".
Humber has already thrown a perfect game ... (against Seattle).
Bedard ... well, Seattle knows what he is capable of.
The other three guys ...
Bud Norris - 4.40 ERA in 575 MLB innings
Lucas Harrell - 4.10 ERA in 246 MLB innings
Brad Peacock - rookie - minor league slash line of 0.8/3.3/.8.5 -- was #36 per-2012 prospect per BBA.
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Yes, the Astros are bad ... and will lose a lot. But, realistically, they are a lot like Seattle 2012 ... without Felix.
EVERY hitter in the Astro lineup has ALREADY hit better at the Major League Level than Justin Smoak has (to date).
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To challenge the 40 win floor, consider that in 2003, when Detroit gave it a run ... Only one of their top 6 starters had an ERA under 5.45 - (Nate Cornejo was staff ace at 6-17; 4.67)
If the Astros were going to lose 120 ... last year would've been the year to do it. At this point, they have a bunch of kids who have ALREADY posted 100 OPS+ figures. And they have a rotation that is almost certainly superior to the 2003 Tigers
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Mind you, I think the move to the AL hurts. I think some of those 100 OPS+ scores drop to 95, (thanks to the DH), but some of that youth also improves. Honestly, at this point, it is the veterans, not the youth that has been truly crippling the team offensively:
Pena - .130/.130/.130 (.260) - -27
Ankiel - .071/.071.286 (.357) - -7
Cedeno - .214/.214/.214 (.429) - 20
It's a poor club off to a slow start. But, it probably is a (slightly) better team today than the one that won 55 last year.
With absolutely zero cannot-dump salaries, the Astros have more lineup flexibility than any team in baseball. There will be no Richie Sexson or Milton Bradley taking up space all season. They can cut ANYBODY that they can find a warm body to replace.
This is not a team of washed up 34 year olds all getting worse at the same time. The offense doesn't appear to have a Longoria or Zimmerman to ignite any kind of serious run ... but worst of all time is HIGHLY unlikely.
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It became clear what Bazooka Joe was talking about, that Montero didn't "get" Saunders' game last time around. The typical inning has around 15 pitches, and in those 15 pitches his Monday mix was:
| Pitch | # thrown per IP |
| Fastball | 11 |
| Gloveside slider | 2 |
| Armside changeup | 2 |
Saunders pitches even more like Jarrod Washburn than we gave him credit for. He wants to "pitch to contact," to challenge (right hand) batters to do something with a located fastball. In theory, that's fine, provided you're not missing out and over the plate, allowing two home runs to mess up an otherwise pleasant evening.
Bazooka Joe wants to mix only enough offspeed to keep the (right hand) batters from cheating on his fastball. I didn't get this before tonight, and I kinda doubt Jesus Montero did, either. Montero favors offspeed pitches, but tonight it was almost like "Okay, pal, you like fastballs so much, I'll just put down the 1 every time."
Actually Montero was looking into the dugout a lot. Very possible that Wedge settled it by patting Saunders on the back: "Okay, Joe, we'll call a couple of games from the dugout until the kid gets the hang of it."
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=== Let's Go With "Estimable" ===
There is one thing that's kind of special about Bazooka Joe ... well, not special. What's kind of like special, but sort of like 60% transluscent of special? Okay, he has a signature weapon...
He's really pretty good with that shin-high fastball. He releases it from over the top, and it angles down, and it cuts BELOW knee level, and it is effective. Then he comes back with a high fastball for a swinging strike.
He's got a few things to attack with. Kind of. ::golfclap precisely three claps::
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=== Bank It ===
SSI has an expression: Saunders "is what he is." That's not a tautology: it's a reference to the fact that a player has no UPside and no DOWNside. You pencil in his baseline performance, and you move on to other problems. It's like canceling fractions. For ten years, Raul was what he was. Kelly Shoppach is what he is. Joe Saunders is... y'know.
Saunders has run a 103, 100, and 107 ERA+ the last three years. The next number in that sequence is about 100. He throws 200 IP per year -- last year, it was 185, counting playoffs.
I know you don't want to hear this, but that's going to make him a good #4 starter. And since he is what he is :- ) that also means that the Mariners have an unusually stable #4 slot.
Of course, the #3 is the question. It says here that Brandon Maurer has it covered. If he doesn't, Erasmo or Hultzen will need to. But Joe Saunders is fine at #4, as we said after he got splattered last week, and we can't wait to see what we get for him in July, as we said after he got splattered last week.
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=== UP Indicators ===
Somebody said that Saunders is now 7-0 in Safeco. True, the fences are now in. But Joe Saunders is a mammal, and is subject to classical conditioning. Deep in the wiring of his brain, he is very confident when pitching in Seattle. He expects warm fuzzies when he lets go of the ball.
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In the 3rd inning, the Lastros' leadoff man sliced one into the right-center gap. Guti's catch looked great on TV, we're sure ... it looked much, much better than that from the rail next to the dugout. The ball was low, and it was slicing away, and my guess is that maybe 5 center fielders in baseball make the catch. To a ballplayer in the dugout, THAT is the ball that gets Franklin Gutierrez a gold glove.
So, instead of the tying run on 2B, none out, there is one out and nobody on. Joe Saunders waited behind the mound to catch Guti's eye and couldn't. They threw the ball around the horn and he still couldn't. Seager flipped it to Saunders, who looked out to CF and still couldn't get Guti's eye.
Finally Guti looked in, wondering why play hadn't started. Saunders pointed out and nodded. I didn't notice Guti react. Probably he did.
...
The very next play, a patented Brendan Ryan backhand play to rob another hit. Cindy complained about the one-hop throw. "Well, honey, if he loops the throw high, the ball has to travel a long way..."
...
Two impact defenders, right up the middle. And there's a center fielder playing RF. And two really good defenders at 2B and 3B. SSI hopes that, in Joe Saunders' games, Eric Wedge goes with his defensive lineup. Play Michael Saunders against the LHP's when it's Saunders Day.
Joe Saunders is a guy who challenges you to do something with a fastball on your hands. His ERA+ will be 90 in the wrong context, or 110 in the right context. You can probably bet on the 110+ this year, and I still hope they get something good on July 30.
...
Don't get me wrong. There's only so far you're going to go with a guy who throws 89 MPH to the outside third of the plate.
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=== The X's and O's of "Execution Style Slayings" ===
Kendrys Morales with not one, but two big RBI, in the first and third innings. He put the game on ice early, and the M's cruised from there.
The game felt scripted, like if the M's had been pressed they'd have just chosen to score a couple more runs. That's not actually true, but Dr. D was on the wrong end of a lot of execution-style baseball slayings from 1977-1988. This was maybe the first game, ever, when he understood what it felt like from the other side.
One of the Yankees of the 1980's remarked, "They got a guy or two there who can drive in runs if somebody happens to get on base, but if we play hard, we should win." Get off the court, man, y'know what I'm saying?
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Philip Humber is an average-decent MLB starting pitcher when his arm feels good. His first two starts, this season, he's been Good Humber. Probably within a month or two he'll start feeling sore again.
But right now he's feeling good, and in his first game he locked down Texas. Six innings, one run, the game was 0-0 going into the 6th. Don't assume that just because it's the Astros, each individual Houston player must have performed below ML standard on Monday. Life doesn't work that way.
Humber was pretty good, was one of the Astros who was decently up to MLB standard. He was good enough (on these two nights) to pitch for the Mariners or Angels, and the M's did a nice job battling him. They took an early lead, and continued to line into hard outs up the middle, and won convincingly.
.................
Last time I saw Erikkk, he looked miles better than in 2012. He had his upright, regal motion back. Could be that Tuesday will be no picnic, either, as far as the bottom half of the inning goes. The top half of the inning WILL be a piece of cake. Time for Mr. Maurer to make SSI look good.
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Where would the M's kids be right now without Kendrys Morales and Michael Morse? As bridge players -- men who are there to get the kids from point A to point B -- those two players are executing Jack Zduriencik's 2013 game plan to perfection.
As a completely separate issue, they are doing it exactly at that moment in time in which the kids' confidence could sag and collapse. Morales and Morse have carried the Mariners early. They've grabbed the ballclub by the scruff of the neck and single*-handedly hauled it into the thick of the April fight.
I got yer "most mediocre players in baseball" right here, pal. Hamilton and Pujols wouldn't be doing more for the ballclub in this critical early stage.
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Morales actually reminds me -- look up the definition of "remind" -- of The Edgar. Minus, what, fifty or a hundred walks, I guess. But it feels so secure, having him come to the plate with men on base. It's a whale of a lot of fun watching him hit 3, and Morse hit 4.
Sudden thought: our Men Of The Match are the Angels' castoffs! OH NOOOoooooo...
Morse cut his swing back down on Monday, lined a couple balls up the middle. Maybe Tuesday will be his turn.
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Comments
The Astros are at, IMHO, critical mass for both low expectations and low offensive upside AND low offensive threat.
Have you watched them play yet? They look like they don't even care anymore at the plate...and it's game SEVEN for them. They are just up there swinging. At almost everything.
This is not a 100 loss team...this is a team that has already resigned.
Love the idea of a defensive alignment in the OF for Saunders (which includes Morse?). He showed what he needed to show last night. If we "only" have #3-#5's who 100 OPS+er to go along with Felix and Iwakuma AND our pen, we will be darn tough....scoring any runs at all.
A questioni: How long do we wait to Buster Posey Zunino, if he keeps raking like this? I'm taking the over on this one, just because we have no place to go, line-up wise, if we add him. Well, except cutting Bay, demoting Smoak or waiving Shoppach. I don't see any of those things happening in the next 40 games. Maybe the Bay thing, but that means Raul really-truely become our 4th OF.
We're in a funny place. Wedge was uncomfortable using a single BU catcher last year as DH, and DH is where Montero goes when Zunino comes up. So we likely keep another catcher.
There's a weird structure to the roster that makes calling up your #1 prospect, who appears to be ready, tricky.
Smoak is a worry. No new news there, though. And is it only me or does it look like Ackley is too intent on the LF gap? I must admit I missed his hit last night but I wouldn't mind seeing him try to punish the RF wall a bit.
But I digress.
Go get 'em tonight kid.
moe
As you all know, I projected a breakout year for Smoak this year...so perhaps my observation is biased by expectation and ST results, but to my eye, he appears calm and focused at the plate and he's hitting a lot of at 'em balls. Had two very hard outs last night...a HR to CF that died 3 feet short, and a double to RCF that happened to find the RFer's glove. Then he got on top of a real good high fastball and raked a ball right at the third baseman on one hop.
So...not worried about Smoak yet. What worries me is that he'll get away from the calm and relaxed approach if his numbers don't start showing up soon.
I'm much more worried about Montero. He is having, easily, the worst at bats on the team when not facing a lefty.
Unless things change Montero takes Zuninno's place when the change is made.
That smacked into the infield shift wall. I think the Jose Altuve caught it with a little shift...while standing 20 feet from the Right Field Foul Line.
...whether the Mariners got Montero so worried about his defensive catching that he didn't work hard enough on his hitting this spring. if that is the case, he should get sent down to AAA to focus on hitting and Zunino should take the catcher's role at the big league level in July.
It's not that he learned this under the apprenticeship of Miguel Olivo.
That not only are they moving to the AL, but probably the best division in the AL, and certainly the best for pitching. How many times this year will the Astros lineup be forced to face Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, Yu Darvish and Alexi Ogando, Jered Weaver, the whole A's Starting Rotation (which is 6 guys now? Makes sense to keep all those young arms + Bartolo Colon healthy), and pretty much every one of those bullpens are nasty, add to that that 3 of 4 new parks are pitcher's parks.
The Central Division of the NL last season had the Reds impressive staff (in a hitter's park), the Cardinal's patchwork staff, Greinke and Gallardo (in a hitter's park), and Jeff Samardzija, and AJ Burnett in Pittsburgh (the only pitcher's park).
So the Astros are moving to better pitchers and bigger parks with a lot of guys entering their sophomore (or well into their decline) seasons against competition that they mostly haven't seen before. Like the Mariners last season, it will be pretty easy to pitch around and or neutralize the handful of threats. Not to say that I expect them to lose 120, but I do think it's possible they get close.
I set you up fore the easy "well it can't be likely they'd lose that many!" post since it's highly unlikely for even a really bad club to lose 120 games. If the Tigers of 2003 played their season out a million times, they'd probably lose as many games or more games as they actually did mere hundreds of times.
It's a dangerous prediction on my part to say that the Astros have even a chance to be that bad.
But...
Let's take another look at those OPS figures you posted:
Jason Castro: A part time catcher who has always struggled to stay on the field for a whole season and he has no good back-ups this year. His career OPS+ is 80, not 100...and he has a bad home/road split...in the decidedly easier NL Central. I project a down year in 2013 for Houston catchers.
Brett Wallace: a WYSIWYG guy...no big upside...a very weak 100 OPS driven by careful platooning and help at home...not much power...poor contact skills and really bad batter's eye...in the AL...he will die a horrible death. Project the down year here
Jose Altuve: Is actually pretty decent...will agree with your OPS figure here
Matt Dominguez is highly untested...never had more than 113 PA in a year at the big league level...and most of those in garbage time. So...project the down scenario is more likely here as well
Ronny Cedeno is a career 60 OPS+ And they have no back-up right now
Chris Carter: Every serious As fan I've ever talked to says Carter's season last year was a fluke. One look at him last night confirms it for me...he is dead meat. And he's playing out of position too so his defense is -1.5 wins bad.
Justin Maxwell - now starting every day...if he's for real, he's a very...very late bloomer. Bad contact skill, good power, but not great power...decent defense...not any better than, say, Casper Wells
Rick Ankiel: has been booked by the NL...may have some brief success in AL before they book him here too.
Carlos Pena: Stick a fork in him. DOA!!
Benchies all have OPS+ values lower than 80 in their MARCEL card.
This team will struggle to hit for an 80 OPS+ unless they keep scrounging the wire and find someone decent at a few different spots.
On the pitching side, their rotation is two guys who get hurt every single year, one guy who tops out as a right handed Joe Saunders lite, and two complete unknowns who don't have much of a prospect pedigree. And their bullpen is three power arms with bad mechanics and bad command, a good LOOGY and three junky journeymen.
If any team had a chance to lose 120 games...this team certainly does.
I appreciate the thunderously heavy counter-argument you slam down. To me it's a fascinating discussion, how bad the Astros are, and it's not a discussion if there aren't people on both sides of the ball.
I've got my own reservations about the logic above, but you lay it out there and, prime facie, it's convincing. Matty's turn, I guess ...
San-Man at his best :- )
Shandler predicts dire, DIRE seasons for most of these Astros -- notably Carter, Pena, and Wallace, but extending to others also.
To take one example, Wallace's CT% was 66% last year and falling; his RC/27 was 4.2 at first base, and he (like most of them) appear non-rosterable in fantasy baseball. Wallace may shrivel up and die in the harsh sun of AL West exposure.
Looks like an expansion draft should be able to do MUCH better than this lineup ... but if the Astros surprise, Sandy has the adopt-a-team license :- )
How would you know? Tough call for Zduriencik.
Here's one where the scouts come into play. Can he deal with offspeed, jam pitches, etc? Those are probably the kind of considerations that will set the schedule. But slap me silly and call me shirley. Right now he is looking Dangerous.
That's all we'd need to complete SSI's ascension to Greatest Sports Community Ever. That and Inside Pitch and Mikey Jay....
He has all kinds of time, and he looks comfortable to me. He's just not swinging as hard, yet, as he needs to.
First take on the defensive catching is pretty blasted good.
Noting most of these guys "career" figures is dubious at best.
TOTAL MLB PAs
Casto - 535
Wallace - 810
Altuve - 894
Dominguez - 183
Carter - 411
Maxwell - 639
If you are going to write off every 25-26 year old who hasn't blossomed yet - why on earth are you still supporting Smoak?
As for Cedeno, Ankiel and Pena ... my point on them is if they ARE dead ... Houston dumps them and picks up whoever they need that might be competent. With ZERO guys on uncuttable contracts, they could pick up a Thames or Endy Chavez in a heartbeat if needed.
In 2011, Seattle was in no position to simply cut Figgins or Ichiro ... and had to eat dollars to cut guys like Bradley. Houston has zero baggage. If ANYONE on that club slumps for 6 weeks, they can be replaced. They have no Olivo or Ichiro or Ryan that they are largely stuck with.
Do I expect all of these kids to produce 100 OPS+ figures? No. But, I expect anyone that flames out (a la Peguero), will be sent down or sent packing ... unless they happen to have a Smoak-like pedigree that suggests they will be blossoming in the near future.
This is a club that was 100% as bad last season (and won 55 games), with even more flexibility to make positive changes as the year unfolds. The Houston Astros are NOT the roster they have today. They are the roster they have today, PLUS every nominal talent available for nominal cost.
There are ALWAYS Josh Wilsons and Hanrahans and Langerhanses available for next to nothing. Houston is pretty much the only club on the planet that can pretty much go get anyone they want with zero spots blocked - unless by perceived upside talent.
I said the Astros are a potential 120 loss team *unless* they scrounge the wire and find anything better. AS CONSTRUCTED NOW...they are a team that is going to lose between 105 and 120 ballgames...and yes...that 120 is possible if the specific young players they have bust as I think they will. Maxwell never had much upside...Smoak did. Carter was never all that well thought of...Smoak was. We also see signs of real progress from Smoak...there are no component skills out there that demonstrate much progress for the guys the Stros are counting on to improve their young club.
And BTW...the Astros are also imposing upon their roster a self-inflicted wound...they are trying to spend essentially no money. NO money. So no...they can't just claim anyone they want...they can only claim guys that cost nothing. It's silly...but that is their game plan.
Note carefully, though, that I'm not PROJECTING them to lose 120 games. I'm saying...it is definitely possible that they could be that bad...and if you took a look at them...you wou8ld agree. They have no one on their entire roster who knows how to work a count. Other than perhaps Altuve and Castro. That's...not good.
My issue isn't the results per say...it's the string of 2-4 pitch ABs culminating in him chasing a slider down and away with an off-balance pepper-swing.
Now that you point it out, it's true that he's more of a "see ball hit ball" a lot more than he's stalking pitches and putting some mustard on his swing.
Last year, he hit a lot better when playing C. Maybe he *is* preoccupied right now. I notice his OSwing% is way down from 2012, though...
If so, I would still doubt the M's would be worried about it...
So...he looks defensive to me...perhaps that extends to swinging less often overall and using that little pepper swing...he won't be a good player if he doesn't swing hard, because he can't leg out any extra bases. :) Basically, if it event ouches an infielder's glove...he's out.
Houston is currently riding a 6 game winning streak, including a 4 game sweep of the Angels.
At this point, their offense has a 90 OPS+
They continue to lead the AL in team whiffing.
The pitching staff has an ERA+ of 83. (they have a SERIOUS gopher infenstation).
But, in general, what I expected to happen has happened. Their flexibility allows them to juggle things, and they are getting gradual improvements here and there.
CA: Castro/Corporan have been one of the best catcher tandems in baseball - (from the hitting side)
1B: Wallace/Pena quickly became Laird/Pena, which morphed into Carter/Pena - (and Pena is plugging away with a .742 OPS)
2B: Altuve - .720 OPS
SS: Cedeno/Gonzalez tandem continues to limp along at .677/.612
3B: Dominquez limps along at .664 ... (which is better than Ackley or Montero managed)
LF: Carter/Martinez has been serviceable in left (.749) and (.754)
CF: Maxwell (.679) turned into Grossman (.553) which turned into Barnes (.736)
RF: Ankiel/Barnes took a beating when Ankiel went down - and Paredes (.587) has been awful in hi 78 PAs ... but
Brett Wallace got sent down after fanning 17 times in his first 24 PAs. Not saying he's solved everything, but in 40 games in AAA, he's running a .308/.386/.545 (.931) slashline.
Basically, exactly the juggling act I predicted.
Humber (0-8; 9.59) and Peacock (1-3; 8.77) are both out of the lineup. Hard not to do better than that - (unless, of course, you were to promote somebody like Bonderman ... but, I digress).
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Certainly Houston will continue taking its lumps and winning streaks will be few and far between. But, worst of all time? They are unlikely to be the worst team THIS SEASON. The Marlins are easily a giant leap worse. (The current Marlin team OPS+ is 71). To demonstrate how truly dreadful Miami is this season?
Olivo (.614) has played 27 games ... (but he's not good enough to be the primary catcher)
Greg Dobbs (.558) is the starting 1B -- because Casey Kotchman got hurt.
The current OPS+ numbers for the primary starter at every position other than RF are:
CA: 57
1B: 61
2B: 85
SS: 47
3B: 58
LF: 59
CF: 86
If you want a serious candidate for worst team of all time, Miami is a better (worser?) bet. At 16-42 they are already 5 games back of Houston.