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In addition to the famed wOBA, wRC+, and WAR statistics, we'd like to recommend that Fangraphs include the following metrics on each player card. If these factors were viewed in formal publication on a reputable geek site, these variables would then be deemed to actually exist in space-time, and much GM-fan disconnect and heartbreak could be avoided.
Including but not limited to:
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REUP - the chance, expressed as a percentage, that a newly-acquired player will sign a below-market extension with his new club.
Last season, for example, SSI mis-stated this number as "2" for Hisashi Iwakuma, whereas the accurate input would have been "70."
Adjust statistic accordingly if the player states, upon hearing that he has been traded to the acquiring club, that the English language is an insufficient mechanism for capturing the emotions the player is experiencing. Adjust again if the club is a re-aquiring club, if the player has a following (mostly of relatives) in the acquiring city, and so forth.
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NULLFRM - a WAR penalty of -0.5 to -1.0 per 150 games, applied to catchers not taken seriously by major league umpires. All rookies receive this penalty.
MLB(TM) catchers who in any way resemble the pre-Tusk, strung-out Lindsey Buckingham of course receive the penalty, but may in compensation receive quarters from fans in the box seats.
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URDUNN - a positional adjustment of -21 runs (which is -7 runs below the DH adjustment) if a player would be of most value to his team as a DH, but is actually not playing DH. In the view of many with propietary defensive data, this adjustment applies to both sides of the recent Jaso-Morse deal.
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SUNBURN - the chance, expressed as a percentage, that a great-looking "emergent" platooooon player will decline precipitously when thrown into the chopping blades of daily-grind MLB competition. Probably more appropriate for Rotographs than for Fangraphs.
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BOSNYY - a 50% premium, to be incorporated (as FLD and BSR is) within the WAR of any player whose primary value occurs within the batter's box itself (see Ortiz, David). This "hard" skill, unlike UZR for example, is reproducible in all contexts.
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VNSH - that percentage of a player's walks and OBP which will evaporate when his SLG dips below .420.
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ISOMEAN - a WAR adjustment made to players with arm swings who, never having slugged above .399 in the past, are currently slugging over .450.
Similar to xFIP, which adjusts ERA based on the assumption that "lucky" home runs will normalize in the future, and which therefore predicts future ERA based on underlying "real" skill.
Where SLG might misleadingly read .456 in a particular season for a slender arm-swinging blues guitarist, ISOMEAN would more predictively read .408.
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LIND - applied to players who have had one OPS+ over 140, with all other seasons below 99.
This is not a suggested statistic as such; it is represented as an asterisk in the wOBA column and leads to a footnote explaining tonelessly "DO NOT SINGLE OUT THIS PLAYER'S MOST RECENT SEASONAL WAR AS HIS ESTABLISHED LEVEL OF PERFORMANCE, YOU FEEBLEMINDS." See Casey Kotchman, Lukas Duda, Jacoby Ellsbury, Garret Jones, etc.
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TAIJ - Payroll savings, in prospect net value dollars, when a .408-ISOMEAN'ing DH is traded in the stead of AAA pitchers worth $30M or more. Club-controls relief pitchers are eligible for calculation in this statistic, provided that their FIPs begin with the number 2.
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TIDE - incremental rise by other players, caused by this player. Calculated conservatively but frequently a nonzero number.
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MNTRO - Value added to the team overall when a quality fraction of a jobshare is absorbed by the superior half of the jobshare. Where good players' exits would cause superior players (or more precious longterm assets) to assume the vacant at-bats, the MNTRO value for the good player will actually be negative. Expressed as whole runs and leveraged victories.
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SMOKMASK - Addition-by-subtraction value, provided by an incoming player who "freezes out" any player who would otherwise have accumulated negative WAR for the club.
For example, where the acquisition of a Kevin Millwood means realistically that Eric Wedge will no longer place Anthony Vasquez into the rotation, this nasal filtering of the -1.0 WAR gas cloud is credited on Millwood's player card.
Legitimate MLB(TM) cleanup hitters are worth more to teams "featuring" -0.3 WAR first basemen. The SMOKMASK metric captures the contextual value of a true slugger to a ballclub that would otherwise be deploying badminton players; a 900-yard receiver is worth far more to the Seahawks than the same receiver is worth to the Falcons. Fangraphs does not yet have a metric to capture this team-contextual reality.
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ZUNZDUR - This statistic is obtained by simply subtracting two numbers: (1) the #26 roster player's WAR from (2) the current player's WAR.
If the MLB/AAA roster carousel revolves to present Blake Beavan in the place of Michael Pineda, the ZUNZDUR statistic on Pineda's card will be positive and large. If the AAA carousel rotates to presents a young super-stud who is of more interest than the 29-year-old journeyman leaving, the ZUNZDUR statistic will be negative on the journeyman's card.
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JOKE - Percentage chance, expressed as a whole integer in excess of 10, that a convergence of remodeled playing dimensions, change of scenery, etc., produce a freakish 50+ homer season.
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MAGIC8 - statistic not calculated. GM's hand-figure at own peril.
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The above stats might not be the right ones, I dunno. But one thing I do know: you can't use any three stats, even "2012 WAR," "POS" and "CLUB CONTROLLED YEARS" and declare the future predicted. There are present and future contexts to weight here. It's very poor form to oversimplify, bust a guitar over your knee, and then when somebody calmly goes "Jaso's pitch framing is -0.9 WAR per year" to just reply with "we don't know that for sure," returning to the tantrum without further ado.
"But we'll probably HAVE Morse for three years! Why so worried about 3 years vs 1?" ... "Re-sign Morse? That's the only thing that could make this worse!" ... :: resume laugh track ::
::: sidles to door ::: I'll just let myself out, m'kay?
The question is where these 25-man rosters will BE in 4 months, 12 months, and 24 months. What was Jaso going to be to the Mariners, in 12 months and 24 months, after Zunino got here and joined Jesus Montero, and the M's DH was also something slightly better than Casey Kotchman?! That question isn't answered with three stats.
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Look, homies, if John Jaso's 140 OPS+ survives consistent exposure, even to RHP's, and if he's a reliable defensive catcher, and if Mike Morse is gone in one year, then oh yeah. It's a deal you can compare to the Fister one.
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But! If Morse gives us Tulowitzki/Cano action for two or three years, while Jaso falls back a bit to his previous levels of [lukewarm DH and excellent backup C], then it's going to be genius in hindsight.
John Jaso has a downside scenario. Morse's career wOBA is equal to that of George Brett and Juan Gonzalez.
John Jaso isn't "better than Morse, one year for one year." You're talking about an actual Major League cleanup hitter, Mike Morse, against a guy who might or might not sustain his next 350 at-bats, that being John Jaso. The only reason Morse was available was BECAUSE of the walk year. Baseball doesn't consider stars like Morse equal to emerging platooners IRRESPECTIVE of the contracts.
Remember when the locals were claiming that Endy Chavez was equal to Bobby Abreu? That's what we're sounding like, right now, to everybody outside Seattle. They're going, Whuuuh? You're mad about giving up the epic John JASO? For THAT guy?
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I like Jaso's OBP. But Casey Kotchman has shown OBP too, a couple times now, and it doesn't mean I want that guy as my DH. Looka the bright side: you got a better hitter than Upton, and you didn't give up Taijuan, Furbush, and Pryor.
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Still haven't spent much of the payroll.
Take two chills and call me in the morning,
Dr D