Wins, Losses and Draws - the Morse Deal
It's all so plaaaauuuuuusible, but...

.

Nothing unlikely has to occur, in order for Zduriencik's move to hit the triple cherries and pay off big.  As I see it, the success of the trade depends on three things:

  • Morse re-signs in Seattle past 2013, at reasonable dollars, providing a David Ortiz-type presence.
  • We have seen John Jaso's best, offensively.  He's going to step back from here.
  • Jaso isn't realistically a 100-games catcher.

Oh, and we're also assuming that (a) Morse has a couple of years left in him, and that (b) Mike Zunino is NOT a HOF'er starting in 2013.  If (a) is wrong, the deal's terrible in any case.  If (b) is wrong, the deal's fine in any case.

Would Dr. D make this trade?

No, he wouldn't have the guts.  If he were bullish on Morse's re-sign here, and bearish on Jaso to settle into lukewarm-DH mode, sure, it's an exciting deal.  But he'd be afraid that even if those three bullets are all 60% probable in his favor, well ... that leaves a 93% chance that some one of those bullets was going to blow him out of the water.  Even if you weight those three bullets 70% in your favor, you've got a 66% chance you're going down to one of them.  

That would be the trade analysis I'd give Zduriencik.  And if John Jaso, for example, is a legitimate everyday catcher, batting lefty with a .370 OBP (whatever his SLG), then you didn't want to trade him for Mike Morse.  Or, if Morse was always just a 1-year guy, then you really do run into the issue of "why is THIS club trading 2014 and 2015 for 2013?"  

But, still:  it's very easy to visualize this deal working out for Zduriencik.  Morse mash.  Jaso fade.  Very, very possible.  And it is CERTAINLY within Zduriencik's job description to MAKE HIS BEST JUDGMENT as to WHICH players mash and which fade.  I'll bet my money on the bobtail nag - somebody bet on the bay.  If that's not how a GM beats other GM's, how does he beat them?

.................

There was a catch, up above - did you see it?  We gave a 60% or 70% chance that Jaso turned out not to be a legitimate catcher, just for the sake of argument.  That would be the highest chance *I* could allow.

But!  perhaps Zduriencik's opinion of this -- based on proprietary data -- is 100% resolved.  Maybe Zduriencik just flat doesn't want Jaso catching for him; maybe secretly he knows that Jaso costs his team 0.30 in ERA, or something.  Certainly the pursuit of other catchers this winter would have been consistent with such a conclusion.  

Billy Beane does not agree.  He's got 100 George Kattaras simoleons that says Zduriencik is wrong.

If Beane slinks away from Jaso next winter, sadder but wiser, then the entire wager has morphed radically.  Now, to LOSE the deal from Zduriencik's standpoint, Jaso has to rake RHP's from the platoon DH slot, big time, like a 140 OPS+, or Jaso was just a benchie all along.  How many DH's do you know who don't get extra-base hits?

................

Zduriencik has got a 00-Green spot here, the 50-homer scenario for Morse.  The guy's power index in 2011 was 173 (!) and there's a good chance the fences are going to be crazier than anybody imagines.

 

 

 

Comments

1

looking at last year they were even in ISO at .180. While Morse has a .196 career and has topped that .180 all 3 of the other years he's been in Washington, only once was it more than 300 AB and he never cleared it with the mariners.
Jaso had never previously cleared .130 ISO, so I wouldn't expect that to be his true talent level, though it's possible. it's also possible that either keeping Jaso our acquiring Morse, that player would be dealt at this trade deadline and that might bring the values closer together, but otherwise I think it's most likely a value loss. 50 HR and a new contract to lock up in a DH slot we all assumed was destined to be Monteros in the next year or 2 doesn't make the move that much better. It's not like Morse is going to sign for $4m a year and he could have been signed next offseason regardless. Signing Morse next year didn't require trading for him this year, though having him will give us a better guess as to whether he's worth signing next year.
I don't like it, but i don't absolutely hate it. Battery of Vargas and Jaso replaced by a MOTO of Morse and Morales. At least they're M's (get it?)...I'm ok with it, but not excited yet. Waiting on more moves, i guess.

2
ghost's picture

Fun with numbers for you, Doc.
John Jason's OPS when coming off an off-day (not even DHing) - 1.045
Jaso OPS when Catching .892 (vs. DHing .814) BUT...Jason's OPS when catching a second game in a row (which he was only allowed to do three times in 2012...tells you what Wedge thought of Jaso's catching)...ZERO. I know I know, small non-representative sample. But I saw it physically...Jaso looked TIRED when he caught twice in a row. If he's really going to start every time they have a righty opponent...he's going to hit about .260 and his power will drop in the second half of the season.

3

I'm Gollum on this one. It all depends on which of my split personalities is observing the trade.
I'm one of those who said you've got to import some solid veteran presence in the lineup, that it would help the kids develop. So Zduriencik goes out and gets Ibanez, Bay, Morales, and Morse. The trouble is, he got FOUR of 'em. And none of them can play defense, none can run the bases. I would have much preferred one veteran piece we would have for a few years who was a well-rounded player, someone who could lock up a postiion of need.
Apparently Jack was unable to get one one on his terms. Whether that is a testament to the difficulty of getting one, the lack of commitment to do so, some issue with the terms Jack had set, or Jack's lack of skill in both trading and roster construction, or some combination of 23 complex reasons, I don't know. All I know is it is 5 years into the Zduriencik regime and going into the season we cannot point to a single young position player that has demonstrated at the MLB level that he will be a cornerstone of a successful franchise.
So we've pieced together another season of waiting for young talent to assert itself, but in doing so we have blocked PT for any young players at DH, at 1B, and in LF. I wouldn't mind that if we could point to people manning those positions that we can count on as the future of the franchise, but we can't.

4

"we cannot point to a single young position player that has demonstrated at the MLB level that he will be a cornerstone of a successful franchise."
Just so. I think part of this is Wedge and his reluctance to play guys who are just learning to shave but also Z's belief that AA performance has to be "proved" again....and again, in AAA. Kind of like a game of H-O-R-S-E.
moe

5

One of his tweets went something like "M's org, rife with ex-catchers, saw Jaso as strictly part-timer."  He was referring to Ted Simmons, to Wedge, to Roger Hansen, etc.  I'm inclined to agree with Baker, that this is one of the last strongholds at which you definitely need to defer to field-level vision.
Baker, from inside the clubhouse, reports that Jaso (and Montero!) absolutely cannot physically withstand the daily grind.  UNQUESTIONABLY they are both extremely unathletic men when compared to, say, Miguel Olivo.

6

Would he be one vet piece we'd have for a few years who was a well-rounded player?
They are getting even more shrill than us, DaddyO.  They see the same problems you do.
Michael Saunders is one guy who may have demo'ed a breakthrough, but slap me silly, look at the level of effort that was required to make it happen.

7

... those coming in airports.  The 127 wOBA is not to be minimized, right?
..........
As I've reiterated a few times, if the deal doesn't give the M's the inside track to Morse's next signature, then I've got issues with the trade. 
Baker is wondering --- > why the ominous stockpiling of 1-year players.  Midseason cash infusion?!

8
ghost's picture

I would seriously like a bit of an explanation of your statement that Wedge refuses to play guys who are young.
From where I sit, he handed Michael Saunders the job in 2011 when he was not ready and the kid hit .190 for a whole month before we finally let someone else try. He handed Montero the danged clean-up spot in the order the first month he was here. He let Ackley lead off while he was hitting .240 (!)...for most of his first full big league season! And bat him second or third in 2011 in his first partial season (!) He let Casper Wells, Eric Thames, Trayvon Robinson, Carlos Peguero, and Alex Liddi get 150-300 PA seasons including stretches where they got to start to see what they could do. They all basically failed except Wells and Liddi, but they had their chances. Even Greg Halman had a significant audition.
He pointed to Seager after one complete season in the minors and said "That guy is my starting third baseman." And he was. Forever!!
He let Smoak hit for TWO FULL SEASONS! While batting about .210 with only occasional power (!).
He held offseason camps expressly for the big name YOUNG players on the Ms roster where he made it clear this was going to be their team and they had to put in the work. And many of them got noticeably better after said camps, especially Saunders and Seager.
He didn't like how Montero looked catching, but he still gave him 50+ games to get his feet wet in his first full season.
What would Wedge have had to do to convince you that if he thinks you put in a professional at bat and play hard in the field, you'll play? Let a 17 year old dominican IFA play without A-ball?

9

The major complaint I've had about Zduriencik is that he hasn't been able to add the veteran bat(s) that we need. We've been through a ton of placeholders (I made a list on another thread that included the luminaries like Cust, Bradley, Griffey, etc) but almost none of them have made any kind of (positive) impact.
Jack's one long-term deal was for Figgins, who promptly threw up his liver on the field and thereafter was just a ghost of himself.
Jack knows we don't have a real power OF who could come off the farm in the next couple of years (unless Peguero gets Lasik, I guess) so he tried to trade for one in a long-term solution and couldn't land him.
So rather than overpaying for a vet who might fail at a high price, we went the 1-year option again, except with far better hitters than we've tried it with before. Morse is no Cust.
If you're bad at something, then limit the amount of damage you can do to yourself when attempting it.
Conversely, Jack has always been GREAT at adding minor league talent. He could have coughed it up and has not done so (though he did offer to with Upton - how serious a play that was is up for debate). If he's supposed to get a winning record this year in order to keep his job, and doesn't want to flush the minors a la Bavasi in an effort to make that happen, then check that box off.
Now we just need all this talent to turn into production.
No more up-in-Smoak performances.
~G

10
OBF's picture

This is a the argument I don't get. Jaso may have 3 years left on his deal, but what does it matter? We spent Pindea on Montero and the #2 pick on Zunino. THEY WILL BE PLAYING! Just like Smoak was given years (and is STILL being given chances) because a high price was paid for him Montero and Zunino will be occupying the spots Jaso could play, regardless of how well Jesus and Mike actually perform they will be given AT LEAST 2 years each to prove themselves.  So why does it matter that we could have had Jaso getting limited playing time for the next 3 years?  Unless you were going to convert him to LF, which is where Morse will play....
Plus having Morse and Morales on 1 year deals make them perfect trading chips mid year if we fall out of the race, think Cliff Lee the year we got him for prospects.  If all we cared about was how long the guy has left on his contract then wouldn't that made prospects ALWAYS more valuable than the 1 or 2 year vet?  Wouldnt that mean giving up, say, Maurer and Carson Smith for Morse would have been even WORSE of a deal?
Heck as long as Morse and Morales perform pretty well, give them each a quailfying offer and take the comp picks if they sign elsewhere.  JackyZ can obviously do some great things with high draft picks (first few rounds I mean).

11

Not that he's had much choice. He has played some vets too long in a lot of peoples opinions, but what manager has not?
Good point on the quantity of ex catchers among coaching on the M's and their position on Jaso and Montero. I'm glad they've added a couple players who a .500 SLG year would not be a surprise and I think all other sites are not realizing Morse isn't Beltre. His power is not going to be a problem in the Safe unless it just disappears in general.
I like the lineup possibilities, just wish one more was a defensive plus. Could really use a Langerhans (lol)to stash in AAA right now too. Well, a starting pitcher or 2 as well as obviously needing another catcher or 2, probably a AAA stash for the 2nd catcher as well. How many other moves are needed?

12

'11: Adam Kennedy for 409 PA's, Figgins for 313, Olivo (although there was not a better option in '11), Cust (which he probably couldn't help) . The brave move in '11, with youth, was Carp. But he was an afterthought who really mashed his way into that. Ackley was a mid-season call-up and had to play. Smoak was the shooting star/young gun who also had to play as we just traded our own Steve Carlton for him. Pegs and Trayvon got tryouts...as they should have on a dismal team. Seager's 49 starts certainly didn't have to happen, but he had just gone all George Brett on AAA. Credit deserved.
'12: Olivo was undeserving of all those starts. Playing Montero wasn't a brave move...we had just sold the future Tom Seaver to get him, after all. Actually is it odd that he only got 55 C starts, 13 less that Olivo. After Carp's injury Wedge was stuck with Smoak for a while, if he wasn't going to play Liddi. He didn't have anybody else, reallly. He should have eventually played Liddi...but that is a different discussion. Ackley was to be the face of the franchise, after Felix. He could have started Kawasaki, I suppose. He rolled the dice with Seager in keeping him up....but remember Seager was slated for utility work as the 3B job was Figgins' until Carp's Opening Day injury. Wedge had to go with youth then...either at 3rd or in LF. Seager grabbed the permanent job with a vise-like throat hold! Saunders starting role was out of necessity because Guti was sick. Good thing, huh? Look what happened to Saunders. I was a doubter there, highly. So I'll give Wedge some credit. Thames and Liddi got cups of coffee, essentially. With Carp out and Guti ill and Ichiro traded, Trayvon got to be the 4th OF.
In '11, Wedge handed a job to a youthful Smoak. But it was impossible not to. Ackley got the call up. But that was ineveitable, too. Carp beat down the door and Wedge couldn't sit him any longer.
In '12, Montero was the new Smoak. Ackley was young and annointed, surely. Seager got his chance due to injury.
Saunders, ditto. But he was in his 4th MLB season, an "old" 25, as it were.
So, youth played but i'm not sure it was by choice.
I'll stand partially corrected.
moe

13

Peguero, Triunfel, Halman, Moore, Mike Wilson... could even count Rodriguez, Bard, Giminez and Pena somewhat but I agree a lot of it was necessary. I just think too much of the bad veterans, hopefully these new veterans aren't bad or aren't clung to.

14
ghost's picture

You can say it was forced, but c'mon...he could theoretically have pulled a Lou Piniella (hitting instead of pitching) and given each of those guys about ten games and then gone "nope...too young...SEE...I TOLD YOU they were too young...send me a veteran!" And forced Z to send em down and grab DFA vets or hang onto Ryan Langerhans or call up one of the journeyman types we had in AAA for the OF especially...e.g. Ford (yep...a vet in AAA just begging for PT that was never deployed).

15

Count me in the camp that initially didn't understand why JZ exchanged Jaso for Morse. The conversation here at SSI has changed my mind and here are the main reasons.
Let's go along with the idea that Jaso is one of your best hitters in 2013, meaning you bat him 3rd in the lineup. Well, what happens when your prime hitter has an obvious achilles heal? If you rely on Jaso in the later innings (implicit with the assumption he is one of your best hitters), you have to accept that he is going to be facing a lot of LH specialist relievers in key situations. Why would you construct a team with such an easily exploitable flaw?
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The other aspect of the trade that I find very interesting is how defense is playing out in the determination of the players value. For Morse, he is a bad defender even at the 'easy' positions. Jaso is a bad defender at a hard position. This is the critical source of value differentiation between the players. They both cost you with a glove in their hand, but they hold very different gloves.
What is the chance that the current thinking, call it fangraph thinking for lack of a better term, is exactly backwards? Really, what is the chance that Jaso's poor glove work at a critical position costs you many more wins than Morse's poor glove work in LF? I think the chance is really quite high and here is why.
First, fangraphs thinking hasn't figured out how to judge many aspect of catcher defense, so it doesn't try. Fangraphs thinking does know that it is a lot more difficult to find a functional catcher than a LF which it addresses with a positional adjustment. The positional adjustment between C and LF is a large part of the difference in value between Jaso and Morse. By failing to measure C defense, but still applying a positional adjustment, you are effectively saying only competent catchers get to catch in MLB and therefore all catchers deserve the full benefit of playing a hard defensive position.
I think JZ is saying with this trade Jaso is not a competent MBL catcher, accept in a pinch. Is this the correct assessment? I haven't a clue, but fangraphs thinking positional adjustments tacitly assume big league teams get this call right on average, so why does fangraphs thinking change for the specific case of Jaso? JZ is the second GM in two years to decide Jaso doesn't have a future as a regular cathers in MLB. Why do you think it is reasonable to value Jaso like a catcher, when JZ and Friedman effectively value him as a DH.
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So we exchanged one DH for another and should therefore only compare offensive value. Jaso has two huge advantages on Morse. (1) Jaso has exquisite control of the strike zone when facing RH pitchers and (2) he is under club control for three more years. Morse has two huge advantages on Jaso. (1) Morse has the ability to hit a baseball really hard and (2) he has no platoon splits.
While it is generally dismissed by fangraphs thinking, I believe baseball players generally believe in the importance of the batting order and consequently take the traditional roles to heart. I believe getting Ackley, Seager, Smoak, Saunders, and Montero out of the 3-5 batting positions as much as possible until they feel they have earned the position will help them avoid anxiety induced under-achievement.

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