The Rangers and Dodgers are locked in a bidding war for Zack Greinke. Texas also needs an outfielder, but they cannot afford to bring back Hamilton and outbid LA for Greinke, so they lined up a trade for Justin Upton in the event that they manage to out-Dodger the Dodgers. Arizona wants a young shortstop in return for Upton, but there are only four that fit the bill: Profar, Andrus, Simmons and Cabrera. Texas is unwilling to part with Andrus and Profar. They tried to get Simmons from Atlanta in exchange for Olt, but the Braves are unwilling to move him. That leaves Cabrera, so the Rangers opened negotiations with Cleveland. There were two roadblocks. First, Cleveland wants two legitimate prospects back in return for Cabrera, one hitter and one pitcher. The Rangers can provide both if absolutely necessary… but the Diamondbacks also want more than just Cabrera for Upton. They also want a close-to-MLB-ready starting pitcher prospect in the deal. Texas simply doesn’t have two of those to give. Another team is needed.
Enter Jack Z. The Mariners like Hamilton more than they let on, but didn’t want to get into a long game with him and miss out on other free agents. To their surprise, other teams felt the same way, and the bottom fell out of Josh’s market as Boston, Detroit, Atlanta, Washington and San Francisco got their guys and the Orioles decided not to spend big. The Mariners need an outfielder but don’t have the right parts to acquire one via trade; they had checked in on Upton but been told Franklin wouldn’t cut it as the centerpiece. Recognizing that they weren’t getting Upton, that they had become Hamilton’s second choice after Texas, and that the bidding for Josh wasn’t going to get absurd, the Mariners realized that they had a vested interest in getting Upton to Texas and thus facilitating Hamilton falling to them. They approached Texas and Arizona about this and found out about the four-way trade. They instantly wanted in and volunteered to make it work.
The Mariners see the risk associated with Hamilton and are thinking that if they do indeed sign a guy with a decline risk this extreme they can’t afford to waste his 2013 sitting around and waiting on their pitching prospects. They picked out Derek Holland as their guy: he’ll take the #2 spot behind Felix in the rotation and stay under control for as long as their prospects would have, even though the prospects have a higher ceiling than Holland. For their part, the Rangers are willing to deal him; Greinke/Darvish/Harrison/Ogando/Lewis is a perfectly good rotation and they still have Perez behind that. They know Holland has home run problems that he’ll never overcome in Texas and that he’s more valuable elsewhere than he is to them.
So. Daniels and Z are biding their time on the mega-deal. If the Rangers land Greinke, the Mariners will sign Hamilton and pull the trigger on something like the following:
Cleveland receives: Trevor Bauer, Mike Olt and Casper Wells
Seattle receives: Derek Holland and Shin-Soo Choo
Texas receives: Justin Upton
Arizona receives: Asdrubal Cabrera, Vinnie Pestano and Danny Hultzen
Cleveland gets two stellar prospects and one pretty nice outfield piece. Seattle is an instant contender after adding two all-star outfielders and a legitimate #2 at a low financial cost and have still only sold off one of their top five prospects. Arizona gets their shortstop while ditching two guys they’re frustrated with and retaining pitching talent. Texas uses Olt to replace Holland and Hamilton with Greinke and Upton. Everyone’s reasonably happy.
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If you nodded your agreement along with the "Bourn and WAR Heroes" post, you'll probably be headbanging to this post.
Hit 'em here, b'wana. That arrow still lights up Las Vegas-style, and Montero's got your back.
Run Forrest Run,
Dr D
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Comments
Thanks, Thirteen. I hope your interpretation is right.
Ceberus-head + Wells for Holland and Choo seems almost to good to be true, until you factor in the $, I guess. The deal makes oodles of sense for the M's and lines up with Z's need to show the brass some W's next season.
So in this deal, we basically swap Wells for Choo and Hultzen for Holland.
Then we swing the Hamilton signing?
IF that happens, I take back my concerns about Z.
Thanks for the plot summary, 13!
I don't understand how we get Choo and Holland for just Hultzen and a spare-part OF, but if they get that + Hamilton ... then maybe they'll be putting up a statue of Z someday.
Clevelend gets Bauer, Olt and Wells for Cabrera, Choo and Pestano? I think they need a little more in return or they keep Choo. What more would the M's have to add to the pot to get Choo? I think it would take Pryor or Capps, Franklin and some lower prospects, too.
Bringing in Choo would also make Guti immediately available to trade. What could the M's get out of the Phillies for Gutierrez? Maybe a little Smoak insurance in a Darin Ruf plus move? Moving most of Guti's contract would be necessary to afford Choo who should get a good raise from the $4.9 he made last year in arbitration.
Wouldn't be surprised if we also had to part with Franklin in order to get it done, Texas is getting slightly shortchanged in this deal. It would be pretty amazing if he pulled ^that off, though, and I like Wells a lot.
I hav a hard time seeing the M's land Holland, Choo and Hamilton. That would push the payroll north of $100 million. Holland, Choo and Swisher might keep it closer to their $90 million target.
Wondered about the salary implications. Thanks, Griz.
Can this be too good to be true? Should we all take a deep breath?
... much less to construct. Good stuff Thirteen. :- )
With an asterisk for the 'risk associated with Hamilton' driving their urgency for Holland -- they're urgent enough in all variations, and in my worldview Hamilton is the LEAST risky free agent on the market, hence his getting twice what Swisher will -- the whole deduction looks info-taining and as sound as such a house of cards could possibly be.
If the M's are actually in on Shin-Soo Choo, the volume is truly turned up to 11 on their 2013 season.
SSI has insisted, since 2006 at least, that the M's could increase their payroll by $20M, $30M, $40M or more -- comfortably. The Mariners are starting off from a position of much more club-friendly cash flow circumstances than other teams.
And starting with the *failure* to sign Prince Fielder last year, they've made all the right noises about spending -- when the purchase decisions were the right ones. Such as Zduriencik's remarks a la "We're all pleased that this ownership is ready to commit resources." Recall that the Fielder offer was made while Ichiro's $18M was on the books. At that time they'd have budgeted 7 years of Fielder money, 3-4 years of Ichiro money, and Felix' extension.
They could pay Hamilton, mostly with Ichiro's cash, add arb players* Holland and Choo, on a 1-year rental, without even pushing their comfort zone, and that's before the new economic landscape.
Whether the ownership commitee is in the MOOD to do it NOW is the only question. Hence the twittering this week about "some people in the M's front office question whether the M's are in position this offseason to make such decisions" and so forth.
No way to blame Grizzle for being skeptical about ownership's mood, though, considering their track record.
....................
Baker just posted on Twitter "GM Zduriencik won't comment on any discussions with Hamilton. Two weeks ago, he was very vocal about likely not signing him. Today, silence"
And powerflush Vargas if you want to save eight or ten mill.
It's TB now, according to Rosenthal http://t.co/4p9NhO6O
Looks like it was CLE at one point, but that has since changed per the article.
We would have an extraordinarily leftie heavy lineup (Choo is awful against lefties and Hamilton is very mortal). Our only batters capable of knocking the ball over the fence from the right side would be Gutierrez (who would be looking at fewer PA if he's not traded outright), Justin Smoak(whom we all have utter faith in right?), Jesus Montero, and...Jason Bay.
Good 'put Mal. In a Hamilton/Choo or Hamilton/Swisher scenario -- even Dr. D is starting to feel like a P-I poster here! -- you're going to want Casper Wells in the lineup with Montero against LHP's. Consistently.
The M's have lefty hitters who can defend themselves against LHP's but you would want 2 hitters you could count on to drive in runs. Would need to add a serious platoon bat to Montero's in that lineup.
We saw something that said 'no numbers have been discussed' and therefore M's fans should chill about the deal ...
To which Geoff Baker's Twitter response is: "Semantics. You can formally present numbers and years in 5 minutes. If sides have been meeting, they know the broad strokes"
From a real-world biz perspective, Baker is exactly right. An exec and a listing real estate agent can know exactly what the price is going to be on a house, can be cozy and ready to close a deal -- and they can legitimately claim that they haven't exchanged numbers.
Armstrong's "Nothing to see here, move along" quote should be taken for what it is: "Nobody get the idea that we're going to get carried away here."
M's have probably been praying for things to break this way since about September and are holding their breaths at their good fortune. Would conservatively guesstimate the M's odds of reeling Hamilton in at about 50%.
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And you would surmise that all the Mariners would have to do, if Texas matched their offer, would be to tack on one more year.
Armstrong doesn't want to have to tack on that extra (6th?) year. Sensible. But I would do it. What's the point of baseball, to lose 90 games and be able to say you don't have any deadwood on your roster?
With Cleveland out (D'Backs want 3 years of club control, not just 1, so AsCab is not good enough) - we have to look at the Rays' roster and see who could offer what.
The Rays have 3 decent SSs on the roster. Reid Brignac (who was always way overrated, but is at least capable of steady mediocrity), Sean Rodriguez (whose defense at SS is questionable) and Yunel Escobar.
They can also offer MLB pitching (Hellickson or Shields) to the D'Backs. The Rays got their first baseman today in James Loney so they don't whave need of Olt there, but could DH him. Perhaps a deal could look like:
Rays get Mike Olt, Danny Hultzen, one more Rangers prospect and Nick Franklin for Sean Rodriguerz, Reid Brignac and Jeremy Hellickson (D'Backs are thus double-covered at SS for multiple years)
Rangers get Justin Upton for Olt, that one more prospect and Derek Holland
Mariners get Derek Holland for Danny Hultzen and Nick Franklin
D'Backs get Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Jeremy Hellickson for Justin Upton.
Just spitballing.
But where do you get those 200 IP's from? It's a year too early to count on Hultzen or Paxton to contribute 200 innings at the major league level. Vargas needs to hang out for one more year. The stupid idea I'm getting is if the M's are willing to drop a chunck of change on Choo when we already have Saunders and Guti, why not point 2/18 at Drew and save a couple of million by letting go of Brandon Ryan?
I don't doubt that they *could* spend the $$ but I really doubt that they will. They've leaked the $90ish million figure pretty widely and that's really nothing more than last year's payroll figure + the new media money they get from the league (and maybe - the 2012 losses). Treading water is the LincStrong way. It's Hamilton and done or some other combination of players that reach their pre-budgeted salary cap.
Grienke signs with Dodgers over his wife's objections...Rangers now free to spend big on Hamilton after having traded Michael Young and missing out on Greinke. Forgeddabodit
Now what? Are Mariners still in play for Hamilton? Or does TEX change strategy?
Urf. And the trade market just got more expensive with the price KC paid for Shields and Davis - Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery and Leonard would be like Montero, Maurer, Paxton and DeCarlo... or maybe Walker instead of Maurer.
Jack had better figure out where the offense is coming from this year. If it's ALL gonna come from the kids and their seasonal improvements...well that's what we hoped for last year.
But I'm expecting not to like the trade price for whatever we add, so I'm hoping to like the player(s) we do get back enough not to mind the price. Because if Jason Bay is our big offensive addition... I may have to toss a tomato or two in Jack's direction.
~G
But of course it was buried by spam. 1Year/6 Million might as well be free compared to Hamilton and Swisher, and wouldn't necessarily keep us from signing them as well. Oh well. This is starting to feel a lot like last year and waiting for Prince Fielder to make a decision. I'm waiting for Andre Ethier to break his leg and see Josh Hamilton get 200 million from the Dodgers at this point.
1X$6M means you could have got Reynolds for 2 years and $11M, I'm willing to bet.
My bet now? I think all this points to us signing Swisher, not Hamilton. Which I'm totally OK with, BTW.
Assuming Hamilton back to Texas ... Cleveland adds Reynolds ... Phillies add Young ... Youkilis headed to Yankees ...
There's only going to be one big bat and one team left looking to add one: Swisher to Seattle.
Rumor is Swisher will sign for 4yrs/$60M. I think we could live with that.
But not as much as I dislike Jason Bay hitting in the middle of the order as our big offseason pickup. I too expect a Nick signing to happen now that other opportunities have dried up.
Since he's arguably the 2nd best hitter available on the FA market, it's hard to argue against it being an upgrade. Especially over Smoak or Thames getting 400 more ABs this year at last year's production levels.
What sucks about losing a first round pick in this new draft salary cap format is that it precludes you from signing a cheaper first rounder than your "estimated" cost and using that savings throughout the rest of your draft to sign guys to overslot deals. The biggest savings you can get are by signing that first rounder cheaply, and without it you damage the rest of your draft as well - it's not just the loss of the first rounder himself.
Can't make it up these days by overpaying in later rounds, so it's a very significant penalty to sign Swish, especially when the one thing your front office is notable for is its drafting ability.
We have plenty of talent depth right now - I'm not worried about a sudden need to replenish. Just saying that Nick had better come through for the duration of his deal. We can't afford to have him Sexson it 2 years in.
Fingers crossed. Come bring the thunder, Nick. Maybe we'll trade for LoMo too and let one of em play first base, get two of the same kind of hitter to power us for a bit, and help Montero/Seager/Ackley/Saunders pick up their games. What's life without a little risk, right?
~G
So maybe sign Youkilis for $15 for one season, or $20 for 2, something like that. Maybe he wouldn't come to the left coast, but you'd have a solid crack at a Swisher-level bat, possibly even better. Yankees currently offering him 1yr/$12mm. You don't lose a draft pick signing him, right?
The Rangers have been defeated by everyone else for all the cookies. They must now sign Hamilton to even tread water. We are therefore hosed. I can feel it coming now...Rangers sign Hamilton, Swisher gets snapped up by someone unexpected...Mariners get...Michael Bourn.
For more money than Figgins got. To do not much better. Yippee.
Free agents won't take our calls. "Sorry, static....breaking up... can't hear....pppssshhhhh...." *click*
It's not pretty. Basically a guarantee that we're gonna overpay to get somebody here. Question is, who can we overpay? Like you said, the Rangers basically HAVE to re-sign Hamilton now, so we're gonna have to pave his driveway with gold bricks to have a shot (unless Texas has pissed him off by trying so hard to sign everybody but him).
He watched Michael Young go through this, though: getting jerked around on positions, complained about to the media after being given a contract management really didn't want to give, disrespected even as the leader of that team and finally shipped out. It's always possible that he doesn't want to be that sort of fallback who's blamed for their other roster choices, I suppose.
I still think we're gonna overpay Swish to come here. If Montero, Ackley and Zunino come through while Saunders and Seager stay good, then that would be fine. But we're still gonna require the kids to carry us, with the assist of one good-but-not-great bat who's paid like he's great.
But please: not Bourn. Trade for Lo-Mo before even considering Bourn.
~G
...is that it's basically us and the Rangers and no one else...and that Hamilton actually seems to LIKE Seattle. But he feels loyal to Texas for now...so we'd have to offer two extra years or something to get him.
Not quite hamsters and elderberries, but my preference would be for signing Hamilton and powerflushing Vargas+ to Boston for an Ellsbury rental. Then extend Ellsbury's contract.