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I've spent my entire career on horseback or on a motorcycle. It boxes you in, the way people perceive you - Sam Elliott
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Q: This is a fluke couple of months for Millwood. There's maybe a 2% chance he'll pitch well all year. Millwon't.
A. Great quip on the Millwon't :- )
As to the Level 201 Scan here ... Kevin Millwood is entitled to put 2009 and 2005 on his resume. In those seasons, he established levels at which he's capable of performing.
The 3.67 ERA in 2009 was over 198 innings. Ranking #8 in the AL in ERA, pitching in that ballpark in Texas, is extremely impressive. In 2005 he actually led the AL in ERA, #1 in the league, in a Cleveland ballpark that is hardly Safeco.
For his career, his HR rate ain't 0.4 of course, but it is better than average. True, he was throwing the ball for slop in 2009 and 2010. But his velo was down in those years, the pitches were obviously mushy and the gopheritis in those years is not indicative of his career trends.
So if you're asking Dr. D, and you did when you clicked the bookmark :- ) I wouldn't call the chance 2%, not unless a 2% chance is likely to come up 2 of the last 6 iterations. If a guy hit 30 homers twice recently, I wouldn't peg his chances for 30 dings this year at 2%.
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Back in spring training, Dr. D griped and moaned about tossing the Jackson 5 into cryostasis for the star journey to System 2013, but he did allow that if Millwood had mediocre life on the ball -- 88-89 touching 90 -- then Millwood could be deployed to 90-100 ERA+ effect. The fact is that Millwood does know how to pitch, and the fact is that his elbow-rending Slider and Cutter have hung around for him long past the career yard marker we'd expect. The cutter and slider are the separators for him, relative to other aging innings eaters.
If you never believe anything else Dr. D says, believe this one: they invited Millwood to camp in order to see what he had left on the fastball. They're going, well, if he shows up and throws 85 and can't spin a slider, no big loss. If he does surprise and has a bounceback in the arm, good for us. .... When Millwood maintained 88 MPH in March he was a Mariner, amigo. That is the way with these late-30's innings eaters.
Kevin Millwood's velocity, if we haven't noticed has not been "mediocre" in 2012. His velocity is outstanding. It is back to its 2005-08 levels - he has much, much more life on the ball than anybody had any right to expect. As long as he's throwing these pitches he's going to be in good shape. He is simply throwing the ball much better than we could have hoped, and he's doing it reliably.
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That said, "doing it all year" for me wouldn't require a top-10 ERA finish; we're talking about whether he can throw the ball better-than-expected, and get better-than-expected results, over his next 10-20 starts.
Millwood is #16 in the league in ERA, ahead of CC Sabathia and Yu Darvish and Ricky Romero and James Shields and Josh Beckett. If you want to find a 2% bet, sure, I'll bet you there's only a 2% chance that Millwood will finish ahead of all five of those pitchers. :- )
If the fatigue doesn't catch up to him, Colon-style, and if the groin doesn't become a nagging problem -- for us 37+ year old feebs those pulls and strains linger -- I wouldn't be shocked by his finishing the year on a 3.75 ERA (thanks in part to Safeco). Millwood has 1.3 WAR in the first third of the season, and SSI would gingerly predict him to post an additional 1.3 WAR over the second two thirds. If that's what you mean by "2% chance," that you are ruling out a 4.0 WAR finish, I sympathize.
4.0 WAR would be quite a surprise. 2.5 to 3.0 WAR is the midrange projection right now. Shed the other two guys, but let Millwood pitch in the #3 spot as long as he's throwing 90-92. He's great for the club. Plus I can't stand the thought that I've heard my last in-game impersonation of Sam Elliott.
Dr. D has Millwood boxed in as an innings eater, but sometimes those innings eaters have a last season in the sun. He is a nice grab for Zduriencik and Wedge, and he's hitting his 90% scenario this year, and they're going to want to bask in his last hurrah. I don't blame 'em.
Cheers,
Dr D