Bill James on the Value of a No-Hitter

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In the Ask Bill section over at BJOL, a reader wanted James' perspective on the no-hitter:

Bill, is pitching a No-Hitter overrated? I've always though it was interesting how better pitched 1, 2, 3, or 4, hit games are quickly forgotten. Johan Santana's 8k, 5bb, 0 hit game ended the Mets 51 year drought pitching the team's first no-hitter yet his 90 game score only ranks 61st among all time games in Mets' history, 45th all time among 9 inning games. Chris Capuano by comparison pitched a 96 game score, 13k, 0bb, 2 hit game in 2011. It's basically one of the greatest games ever pitched by a Met and it's basically a forgotten game.
Asked by: johnq1127
Answered: 6/5/2012
Well. . .the no-hitter is a hundred-year-old concept, and it adds something to the game.   It's something you can watch, when you're at a game.   Every game starts out as a no hitter. 
 
When I first posted Game Scores, one of the criticisms of them was that a no-hitter or even a perfect game didn't necessarily score better than a game that wasn't a no-hitter.  People represented that as a flaw in my system, that  9 2 0 0  1 12   scores better (93) than 9 0 0 0 3 6   (90).  But my response was, that's fine.    The no-hitter is a fun concept, but it isn't the ONLY way to look at the question of "how good is this game?"   You CAN look at it my way (game scores); it's not necessarily less logical or even less obvious.  
 
I would say the same for a no-hitter; the fact that it doesn't score at 95 doesn't mean it's not a great game if you want to look at it that way.   But I do think that the Game Scores system helps call attention to exceptional games that otherwise slip away into anonymity. 

The takeway there:  the fact that there are many paradigms for answering the question "how well did he pitch"?, and that you can select the right paradigm for the moment.

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=== What a No-Hitter Isn't ===

Obviously, 100 years ago they didn't have Voros McCracken around.  When Old Hoss Radbourn threw a no-hitter in 1883, the observers figured -- reasonably -- that Radbourn had been unhittable, that on that day he'd have no-hit anybody, that if he pitched like that every time he'd throw a no-hitter every time.  Like Calvin Murphy hitting 40 foul shots in a row or something.

Nowadays we know that's not the case, that every no-hitter has five or six balls that were hit at people.  The problem comes when we overstate this component of a no-hitter, and spend 90% or 98% or 100% of our time apologizing for the no-hitter, saying that it was really no more impressive than some other good game, a 1-run, 4-hit game.  That's not right, either.

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=== What a No-Hitter Is ===

Suppose I told you that in their opening game, the Seahawks were going to hold the Cardinals scoreless without a first down.  ... well, after the game you could talk about three dropped passes, including one for a long gainer.  And a fumble after a 12-yard run.  You could get wrapped around the axle talking about how it wasn't repeatable, and you could forget the fact that if the Cards got no first downs, the defense played superl'.

Suppose that with my Magic 8 ball I told you that the Mariners were going to hold the Dodgers hitless again on Saturday.  You going to the game?  You figure on winning it? ... forget three great plays on defense.  Fact is, the Mariners' pitching was overwhelming.

..........

When I hear about a no-hitter, my reaction is that three things happened.  There was a great pitching performance, and there was _____, and there was _____.  Those other two things being these things:

  1. There was a 3-hit shutout type pitching performance.
  2. There were several balls hit at fielders.
  3. The pitcher was great in the 7th, 8th, and 9th, under crushing pressure.

In Friday night's game, the rook Stephen Pryor visibly imploded under the pressure of the no-no.  Again the hyperventilating, again the yips, again the ball missing the zone by 2-3 feet.  It's odd how a save situation* doesn't distract Pryor -- the runners on base in the 7th seemed to focus him -- but Pink Backpack Boy's was under pressure to not botching the vet's no-hitter, and that did invade.  Or so it appeared.

Johan Santana threw a no-no the other night.  Great outing by him, and I'm sure he showed incredible focus and determination on pitches 100-130.  

In SSI's world, the dogpile on the mound is always well-deserved.  The guy just served up a 3-hit shutout, plus.  Plus an extra dollop of Gamer on it.

Congrats M's,

Dr D

* hold situation, technically

Comments

1

No one is talking about this, but...
I bet this is the first time a player / pitcher first win of his MLB career was in a no-hitter.

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