Seattle Sports Insider

M's 1, Dodgers 0 - Ramifications

Posted by

6/8/12

..........................

Q. Is this going to be an all-year thing for Millwood?

A. Yeah, it looks like Millwood's arm is fresh after last year. He knows how to avoid mistakes (HR's), he knows how to take liberties (ladder fastballs when conditions allow) and as long as he's throwing 92 he's liable to run a 3+ ERA. Like we sez, it's not many innings eaters Millwood's age who can still spin the sliders and cutters.

He's month to month, but could reasonably continue all year. ... remember Bartolo Colon's great first half in 2011, and the second-half fade. These guys got some mileage on them.

I'll say this: if he's not hurt, he's in my rotation long after Beavan and Noesi are not. Way to munch innings for us, grampa. If he is hurt, G-Money gets the shotgun seat. He was the first to say it. You know which Jackson 5'er is in rotation with Millwood.

Q. Where are they going with the catching platoon?

A. The CERA's were 4.43 for Olivo, 3.90 for Montero going into the game. Olivo having caught Felix more often. The invisible elephant isn't leaving any tracks in the backyard snow, gentlemen.

It says here that the Mariners' admins are increasingly going to "get it" here. Olivo knows more, sure, but Olivo's knowledge simply is not translating into bases gained and bases lost.

"Technical sophistication" is NOT a synonym for "practical effectiveness." As in chess, it doesn't matter what you know; it matters what you can do. There are plenty of patzers who know more than masters do. The master's plan might not be better in theory, but it jibes with his tactical execution and his intentions are realized on the chessboard.

Or, as Carl Willis puts it, you don't have to obsess with your opponent's weaknesses. You can focus on your own strengths. Either paradigm can work, depending.

As fans we hope that the M's admins are flexible enough to accept a paradigm -- focus on your own game, not on your enemy's game -- with which they are not comfortable. The evidence is rolling in right in front of their eyes. Montero just used his own style to call a no-hitter.

..............

Montero simply has more bases gained, and fewer lost, than does Olivo. How do you argue that Olivo's pitch calling is an elephant-sized factor, if the tracks in his ERA snow are parakeet-sized?

To put it another way: you believe that Olivo helps pitchers (more than young catchers do). If you were wrong, how would you know? What is your self-check process?

I'll go first: If I were wrong about Montero's competency, I would find out I was wrong by ---> observing a lot of runs scored against Montero's pitchers. Hm. That's not occurring.

Or: let's use the "predictive validity" scientific check. My model predicts that Montero's pitchers will not, in the future, have lots of runs scored against them. Any bets?

Q. And the bullpen?

A. Leutge: three pitches, all sliders, and we're this close to declaring him a certified pennant-class LOOGY. He can come in for one, two batters, and he can throw strike one, and he can go shower, and he can do it the next time.

League: I'll never be a fan, but it's nice to see him getting back into what is (within his own game) a groove.

Wilhelmsen: the closer role, for some reason beyond my perception, seems to have put him into a "starter's rhythm" from pitch one. Maybe it's the predictability of the warmup routine, or maybe the hot seat focuses him, or I dunno. He's way smoothed out in the 9th, steadier head, better concentration, the grok is just much different the last week or two.

Hope they keep Wilhelmsen right where he is, whatever else happens around him. He's dialed in and we're getting 97 MPH, strike one to start the 9th, with a gold seal guarantee. I'm flippin' likin' it.

Q. ANOTHER 2-out RBI for Seager?!

A. He was facing a vicious lefty who quickly put him down two strikes.

Calmly, ever so calmly he arm-swung at an outside nasty. Eyes half lidded. Tea, anyone? In came the nasty, snickersnack went the vorpal blade and he barreled up the jabberwocky. The ball whistled out over short for a single. He'd taken the target that was available to him and the jabberwocky fell over with a thwud. Much rejoicing in Wonderland.

Yon Kyle has a lean and hungry look; such men are dangerous. What an amazing grasp for the game Seager has! This, right here, is what the scouts are searching for when they look for "ballplayers." He's just got the Jeter on. We'll take it, and laugh all the way to the castle treasury.

You knew that Seager led the A.L. in two-out RBI. Anybody got the leaderboards on "presumption"?

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

Knuckle down.

I think it's also fair to poi9nt out that the Mariners really made Eovaldi work HARD for his 6 shutout innings and that the offense looked good from start to finish with the possible exception of Carp and Montero. The guys were really battling and grinding out their ABs and Eovaldi was sweating the whole game.
1 run only...but it was mostly just bad luck of clustering that prevented us from getting him for 3+.
The Dogers aren't a chump team (though they were minus one Kemp, so perhaps not as good as usual. :) )...we took it to a pretty good club last night. Keep it up...let's get well against the NL.

Real satisfying to watch

Real satisfying to watch these games down here in LA and see the M's shoving it down the Angels and Dodgers throats. Dodger announcers were going on and on about "well you let little teams like this hang around in a game, they start actually contemplating the possibility that they MIGHT have a chance to beat you"...that's ok guys, we don't need any handouts...we'll come and take the throne ourselves ;)
Now let's see Vargas take down Kershaw! Probably have to be 1-0 again to do it...

Watching Montero leap into Wilhelmsen's arms

Is gonna be an indelible image of these young Ms for me. 225 pounds of solid catcher, in gear, just jumping into his closer's arm with a 1.21 gigawatt joyous smile blazing away was awesome.
If it had been League on the mound poor Brandon would be on the DL now.
I loved the interview after the game where Tom Wilhelmsen thanked the fans for keeping them going. The atmosphere was rocking. Tremendous. It was a shame that Pryor had too long to think about it coming back out for the 8th, because he came on to end the 7th like a man.
They're all so new at this. Wilhelmsen doesn't have walk-out music yet - he's not "really" a closer. Pryor was in the minors last week. Luetge is a RULE FIVE GUY. Furbush has only settled in as a reliever this year and was in Tacoma a month ago.
Montero's "not a catcher." Seager's "on a hot streak." It's just...
Young teams crack under pressure. That's what they do - except this one didn't. I liked the Jeter comp for Seager, Doc - he's just tough as nails. Ackley was the sleepy-eyed killer in college, but Seager's the one going all Carlos the Jackal right now, and I don't think it's gonna stop. He's a serious talent, and he believes with an iron will that he belongs out there making plays. To go with another Yankee comp: it's always nice to turn up a Paul O'Neill sort of self-believer in the draft. With a few less murdered water-coolers, though.
And did you see Carp mocking Saunders good-naturedly in the field for stealing a fly ball from him? "Oh sure, I get over here and you want it anyway..." They were laughing with each other in the middle of a no-hitter, like good friends do. But they were still FOCUSED.
Wedge brought several members of the team to his house over the winter to talk about focus. He's a genius, because it's working out great.
Wonderful, and potentially landmark game for these Mariners. Making history and laying the foundation for the future in the same game is a neat trick.
~G

Any change in your opinion of

Any change in your opinion of Sgt. Wedge Moe? I know you were down on his lineups and in-game strategy...but seems like the guy has the team laser focused despite some long losing streaks and gut punch losses, and is making most of the moves everyone rakes him for not making, just a little slower than blogger speed (ie, dealing with actual human beings speed). At the very least, you gotta give him credit for pulling all the right strings last night!
None more than putting League in there to get the "real" save...Wedge's gutsiest call of the night in my book! And not an easy one to make.

Completely agree about focus.

Completely agree about focus...Montero's smile and leap was great, but Wilhelmsen standing there momentarily confused like "why is he jumping on me" was priceless...after the game he said he kind of forgot it was a no hitter, and looking at his body language throughout the inning that was obviously true. Ryan said the same thing, said it honestly wasn't even on his mind at all. All of them talking about, who cares about a no-hitter, we just wanted to win the game. Talk about a winner attitude! Are we sure this is the Mariners we're watching??

Game notes

Doc,
If Yon Kyle has a lean and hungry look, does that mean Jose Lopez was the fat, sleek-headed, sleep o' night type, that Caesar preferred?
If so, Caesar was no GM.
1. Kudos to Furbish, too. He continues to impress me.
2. Did you see the 5 relievers at the mic after the game? They were asked about Montero behind the plate. Each said he's really improving, all seemed impressed. League said "I personally like throwing to him." He kept putting down just one finger will Millwood on the mound, and while I'm sure there was some dugout conversation where Millwood told him that was the deal for the day, he still executed it and kept Millwood in his rythym.
3. I'm not sure Figgins' catch wasn't made by Carp, too, but it was a nice play. Ryan's play was what Ryan does. Well done Wedge.
4. Remind me why people think Ichiro looks slow this year?
5. In the 5 reliever press room deal, Wilhelmsen looked most like he knew he belonged right there. He has a presence. BTW, he looks like he can start. He's smooth and efficient and looks like he would fit in a 7 iunning stint. But I sure don't know if you play with what he's bringing right now.
6. Almost every time Seager comes up now I expect some kind of ringing rocket-shot off the RF wall. Oh, kudos to the kid for the great play on the bunt, too.
7. I thought Montero was aglow on the field , after the game, too. He knew he had just done/been part of something impressive. It will make a difference in the way ALL the staff sees him as a game-caller, too.
8. I checked again for the stillness, dead-quiet type, of Saunders' bat, just as he begins to load. It's there. He get's very quiet, and then goes boom.
Beware the ides of..........Sept/October, eventually.
moe

Not really

Not really. Or not yet really.
He made good calls last night, granted. I'm pretty good about giving credit where it is due.
But, in my view (which is certainly open to ridicule), he's not done a great job with this team. Maybe some of it is GM dictated (Figgins still here, playing Olivo until his injury), but I'm not all in yet with Sarge.
He's managed for 8.3 seasons, or so. He's 29 games below Pythagorus, and he does so constantly. Last year the M's hit the Pythagorus number on the nose. In '07, his Indians were 5 games over. But in EVERY other season, he's been below the Pythagorus number, including this one.
The M's are hanging around, I'll give you. They are one 6-game win streak from being in the WC race. But they are one 6-game lose streak from being demoralized again. I know that this year wasn't supposed to be great, but it has the chance to be good.
I"m rooting for Wedge. I keep doing that.
But I'm not seeing a guy who pulls the right levers that often. Last night he did, granted.
And he either used League in that situation, or was going with Wilhelmsen for two innings. A pick 'em call.
But he was good last night. No argument from me.
moe

+1

It also helps that Zduriencik has been focused on bringing in the "baseball rats" and not the guys that have just coasted by on their sheer athletic ability. A guy like Seagar has probably always had to work darn hard to be one of the best players on the field.

That's a great point. I

That's a great point. I think you're right that professional athletes' POTENTIAL level of focus is self-driven. Manager's job is more to not screw that potential up, put players in the right roles.
Ultimately I think managers keep guys focused by running a meritocracy where PT is based on who everyone knows should be playing (the players always know of course). I think in the big picture Wedge has been solid - most of the seemingly unmeritocratic decisions like Figgy in April were not his call and I'm sure the guys knew the deal. And he's been willing to increase or decrease roles when it's deserved (eg demoting #1 trade chip League). But in-game, it does seem that he's often not good at making the moves to get the right guys in the right situations as the game evolves. No doubt that is a negative for team focus if it happens frequently.

You overcome in-game managerial woes with excess talent

Sweet Lou butchered bullpen decisions forever, but that sorta fixed itself when Sasaki, Rhodes and Nelson were on the team, because all he had to do was run out a great arm every 7th-8th-9th with a lead. No mess, no fuss.
Finish giving Wedge trustworthy bullpenners and that part of the game will clean up nicely. Remove the atrociously weak hitters and his lineups will make sense.
And then all the stuff Wedge does in the 21 hours a day they're not playing ball will be better appreciated. Jack's on it - one step at a time.
~G

Pythagoras edit

A brief comparison.
Others can extend this to more managers, if you wish.
I wanted to do a Pythag check-up, to see if it had any real merit. Perhaps most managers underperform on that scale? A 21-4 win equals one win, but Pythag sees that as a couple of wins. You get the idea.
Wedge, from '03-'09, '11-'12: -5, -1, -3, -11, +5, -4, -8, Even, -3
You find a clear consistency. Minus one year, his teams generally underperform to some degree.
Earl Weaver, from '68-'82: -1, -1, +4, -2, -10, -5, +5, -5, +4, +9, +7, +4, +2, +7, +4
You find a clear consistency. Minus a cruddy '72 his teams generally overperform.
And '72 is an aberation year, because the O's gave up so few runs. They had a TEAM ERA of 2.53 (But it was a pitching rich environment. The league ERA was 3.06). They used 11 pitchers ALL YEAR! Bobby Leonard pitched 20 innings and had an ERA of 4.5. Beyond that, NO PITCHER had an ERA above the league average. Dave McNally had an ERA of 2.95, and was the closest.
That team threw 20 shutouts. My goodness. But they lost 10 games where they game up two or less runs. 5 1-2 games and 5 0-2 games.
Those factors may explain the Pythag numbers.
Anyway, Apples and Oranges, I know. Weaver is in the Hall and Wedge won't be. But there may be something to Pythag.
moe

Focus

Focus is a funny thing guys. Regardless if much of our lineup is young, these guys are star athletes who have been playing in big games most of their lives. Hey, they learned focus a long time ago. They wouldn't be at this level if they didn't.
What Wedge (or any manager) can do is get them to buy into the role they're to play (perhaps that is a type of focus), then get them into the right role and pull the right levers.
Kyle Seager has been delivering in pressure situations his entire life, I'm willing to bet. It's part of his DNA: Talent and the ability to find the quiet when all about him is raucous noise. Wedge didn't teach him that.
These guys are playing at the highest level of their sport. A little sports psychology from the manager is great, but mostly these guys are self-motivated.
I have no clue if Earl Weaver "focused" Bobby Grich or Mike Cuellar or Andy Etchebarren. Did Lasorda "focus" Cey and Lopes? I don't know. I do know Weaver and Lasorda pulled the right levers a whole bunch.
Gimme that in my manager, and the focus will come.
From a player's perspective, having Wedge make a bunch of good calls last night probably increases buy-in.
It was a very good night for the M's and especially for Wedge. Here's to him keeping it up.
moe

Pythag helps you figure out what was done with the production

Not whether the manager increased the productive capabilities in the first place. Among the guys Wedge invited to his home over the winter were Seager, Ackley, Montero and Smoak. Oh, and Jaso, which I wouldn't have expected.
Jaso tanked last year but has been instrumental this year, especially in big situations. Seager has been unstoppable as a MOTO cog. Smoak struggled to start the year, big-time, but his manager kept putting him in the lineup. He told him over the offseason about the expectations, but then allowed him time to adjust to meeting them, which Smoak has been doing recently. Said Wedge:
"The difference between last year and this year is all about advancing and achieving. It's not about surviving, which many of them had to do last season. It's not about getting to the big leagues and seeing what you can do. Now it's about performance and production. And that's what leads to winning."

Maybe that week of conversations and groundlaying didn't help the kids a bit. Perhaps they're automatons and they would perform the same in any environment for any manager, and all that Wedge gets to do is (fail to) meet his Pythag expectations for managing the performances he's given on the field.
But since that's not how it works for me at my job, I have trouble believing that's how it works for them at theirs. I perform better for certain managers, and even if they aren't as good at some of their own job requirements I jump in and help them out more than I would for others.
Our collective performance might be better under someone who is misusing some of our talents simply because we are better focused under that person, or more relaxed, or whatever.
Perhaps Bob Melvin or Don Wakamatsu would be getting the exact same performances from Seager, Jaso, Saunders, Montero, Wilhelmsen, et al. Maybe they would have gotten more from uber-talents Ackley and Smoak, or been able to stop League from self-destructing.
I dunno.
But when I see the Mariners have more fighting character than I have in a while I don't just assume it 100% because of the players and Wedge has no part in it. I'm a synthetic thinker by nature. Everything's related.
And it's possible for Wedge to get better too, or have a team fit his personality. It's not like Joe Torre (pythag to begin career: -8, -6, -5, -4, 0) began his career as some kind of genius in game-management.
But even if he doesn't improve, what I want to see is player improvment, and on a team with a billion young players the fact that all of them are hanging tight and getting better together is either a statement about Jack's sole genius, or perhaps a small indication that Wedge is doing some things right, too.
~G

Millwon't

Can Millwood keep this up all year?
In the same way Kennedy could carry a 110 OPS+ all year. 2% chamce - at best.
Kevin is bright - but he doesn't hold form well. There is a reason that he only has a 50% QS rate this season. He's in the zone right now. It's called a streak and pitchers have them, too.
His ability is not 0.4 HR/9. Just enjoy and hope Z gets more than he did when Wash went all Cy Young for a spell

He seems to do better on

He seems to do better on extra rest... Maybe his contributions could be leveraged that way? At least to further boost trade value.