I have begun to notice a wonderful stillness, just before he launches, in Saunder's bat. He still whips it around, albeit less than he used to, as he waits for the pitch. but just as he begins his move at the ball, he loads the bat (it points forward, creating leverage) and then it gets momentarily, but absolutely, still. It becomes quiet for just a fraction of a second, and then he turns.
Watch for it. Look for the quiet. The bat is still, the world slows down, and he is now beginning each swing with the bat in nearly the same place. Were he a golfer, we would say he has found repeatability. And, were he a golfer, we would say he is beginning to own his swing.
The opposite-field (left-center) rocket he launched the other day was something he didn't have before. He had so much loopy movement that he had to start early to catch up to the ball. Imagine Miller Barber (for you old golf fans) tyring to square a pitch. He would have to start early. Two years ago I thought that move was capable of .250 and 20 dead-pull taters. Last year I thought he was done. Done done.
His repertoire has now expanded.
Watch Bubba Watson swing the golf club. Lots of movement and then the moment of quiet.
Saunders now has pitch recognition abilites.....or time to do so.....that he's never had. the junk in the dirt isn't killing him. It will be fun to see how pitchers attack him now.
And as for entitlements, have you really missed Guti in center this year? Has Saunders' glove been that much less that Guti's?
3 years ago he was a dang good player. But he isn't entitled to very much right now.
Over the last two years he's had 400+ MLB/AAA PA's. He hit exactly one homer.
If he's our 4th OF, I'm good with it. Make him our version of Craig Gentry in Texas.
But he doesn't eat into Saunder's playing time.
And I still roll Carp out each and every day.
And so it goes.
moe
...........................
Q. How's about those Kemp and Hamilton comps that Malcontent threw down?
A. Dr. D would compare Josh Hamilton to a lot of things... to Ken Griffey Jr., to Mickey Mantle, to a T-1000 hypermimetic alloy terminator, to a falling meteor with mass in excess of 200,000 metric tons ... beyond that he ain't touching Hamilton comps with a 10-foot pole. :- )
But Malcontent's audacious (and thirsty) comparison to Matt Kemp might have more legs than you'd think... hm, let's toss the corkboard coasters around the table. ...obviously the age-arc factor is not going to match....
.
Q. What do you do with somebody on such a weird age-arc trendline?
A. Dr. D was there baby. For the keystone-kops version of Randy Johnson. Before he got good, the scouts were saying "you've got to endure the pain, because of his ceiling." Bill James was saying "watch close, because you're never going to see another like him."
Like Michael Saunders is, Randy Johnson was a long, ungainly man who moved like a basketball player. Or, in golf terms, Michael Saunders is swinging a 1-wood where Justin Smoak is swinging a 3-iron. (Randy Johnson was swinging a trick 5-foot driver.)
You weren't going to understand Randy Johnson by using age-arc methods to plot a trendline, now were you? He was bad for a long time, and then one day he was an ace, and then one year after that he was one of the ten greatest starters who ever lived.
The Mariners did not hang onto Randy Johnson hoping that someday he could be a 3-4 WAR pitcher. They put up with him for so long because they thought he could be a 7 WAR pitcher. The Mariners put a ridiculous amount of faith and effort into Michael Saunders, and it wasn't because they were hoping for a 3 WAR player.
It's perfectly reasonable to speak in terms of Michael Saunders' 5-7 WAR scenario. That's a very realistic possibility. He's swinging a 1-wood.
.
Q. How has his swing been?
A. We continue study the belt buckle, and the bat followthru, carefully every time he comes to bat.
He's doing great, the belt buckle routinely stopping at SS or the base out there at second, the bat stopping routinely at the 1B foul line, the Ki going up through 2B ... and the ball going over the fence.
Last night he had two swings where he let the hips fly, the first "double" I've seen in a couple of weeks. Saunders has a tendency to get 'dizzy with success.' But he's getting an ingrained feel for moving his weight up the middle, and still getting rewarded for it.
.
Q. What will be his defining attributes?
A. Ichiro is historically unique, and by unique we mean "the only one of a kind." Pete Rose wasn't baseball's greatest right fielder. Tony Gwynn couldn't run. You know what we mean.
It's fair to wonder whether there was ever a player like Michael Saunders: Tony Clark playing CF and running like a goosed pronghorn antelope. If anybody can come up with a comp, any comp any decade, fill me in.
To me, Michael Saunders' game right now has the following 'irreducible parts':
- LH
- Fast
- 60:150 type EYE
- Infielders inch back in fear when he swings
- More doubles than HR, like 40-50 doubles and 20 HR
- 120-130 OPS+
In terms of value only, you could talk about Jay Buhner, if Buhner were a real fast center fielder. Think about it.
Other comps: Justin Morneau, Tony Clark, Geoff Jenkins, Andre Ethier .... the best one I found, in a half hour's (enjoyable) noodling: Cliff Floyd. Cliff's age-25 season was a beautiful match to what we're seeing from Michael Saunders right now:
- .282/.337/.481
- 47 BB, 112 K
- 22 HR, 45 doubles
- 27 SB's
Now that we've well-and-truly gauged Saunders at his present state of evolution, we're ready to ask whether Matt Kemp is reasonable here. Kemp's age-24 season:
- .297/.352/.490
- 52 BB, 139 K
- 26 HR, 25 doubles
- 24 SB
- (Huge center fielder with 5 tools)
Saunders as he stands right now is indeed playing just about Matt Kemp did from ages 22 to 25, four years' worth, same value and same skillset.
.
Q. Anything you picked up from these comps?
A. Sure seems like they're capable of Godzilla-stomp career seasons, doesn't it? Kemp had a 172 OPS+ last year; Justin Morneau when he finally jelled at age 29 posted a 187 OPS+ ...
Saunders, if he is going to keep the front side closed and the Ki up the middle, looks like a wacky-but-wunnerful 120 OPS+ center fielder to me. He's a dyed-in-the-wool Mariner, a guy we bled and cried with and I want to see him in CF the next ten years.
Saunders is on pace for 5-6 WAR this year. One year that could be 8-10. I'm really wondering how much entitlement Franklin Gutierrez has. Does entitlement survive the third and fourth injuries?
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
Ever since he made his mark at High Desert at 20 (.299/.392/.473). 25 doubles, 60 walks, 27 steals.
(Making his mark at High Desert at 20 -- wonder who's doing that this year . . . why, yes, it's Julio Morban.)
Then age-21 at Jackson (then West Tenn) -- .277/.357/.461.
(Succeeding at AA at 21 -- just like, that's right . . . Nick Franklin. [Except Franklin's doing it better.])
Then 22 at Tacoma -- .310/.378/.544.
***
Then they kept ruining it by calling him up to the majors.
***
If you comb through the SSI archives (not that you'd want to), you would find me saying time and again:
1. Be patient with this guy. Check out his Olympic team bio (I don't know why it's still online 4 years later, but it is.) Yes, he played hockey (he's Canadian), he played basketball (he's 6-4 and could dunk), but he also played lacrosse and soccer. A five-sport athlete in a cold climate. He's a freak, but baseball is not ingrained into his neurons like a kid from the Dominican.
2. You don't have those kind of age-20, age-21 and age-22 seasons unless you're capable of succeeding in the bigs. Doesn't mean you will, just that you have the foundation. You can't have all-around success like that "by accident" three years in a row.
3. I kept saying "left-handed Cammy." That's one comp you didn't throw out.
***
I really did finally think that he'd gotten so messed up with his call-ups and sent-downs that he wasn't going to make it. I only said it once, after defending him a bunch, but I'm very glad to be wrong about finally caving on him.
Is who I'm hoping he turns out like. With fewer injuries.
You usually spoil us around here with multiple posts a day, almost always coinciding with topics that I coincidentally have on my mind. I was waiting for the one on Saunders, because wow, what a revelation he's been. Props to those around here who looked at him in ST and said, "hey this swing change AND mentality change could be legit." Huzzah to that call. Just the fact that we are almost 3 months in and even mentioning Saunders and Kemp in the same sentence leaves me one very happy camper. And yes, Seattle 100% deserves this success story after the agony he's made us endure up to this point. Now about this whole Ackley-not-setting-the-world-on-fire-yet thing...
-Nick
First ~550 at-bats: .265/.340/.395/.735 (which'll get you a 111 OPS+ with Safeco as your home field. That's fine. Ackley's fair comp is the previous college hitter of a decade (or two), Robin Ventura.
Ventura's first real season: ~500 at bats, .250/.325/.320/.645 (83 OPS+). His OPS+ the next 6 seasons? 126, 127, 120, 116, 132, 127.
Of course it's always possible Ackley is ONLY his current level of hitter and never gets better, which would just make him a 5 WAR/season guy (yes, with his "poor" second base defense that's what he's credited with over his 145 game career so far on B-Ref). Fangraphs is more down-in-the-mouth about him - it's 3.7 WAR there.
But if you need MORE than a 3.5-to-5 WAR guy to enjoy his play, just wait til next year. It's coming. ;-)
In the meantime, it's great that Seager and Saunders look to be comfortable and settling in already while Ackley and Smoak and Montero are still standing in the doorway taking their coats off. Gonna be quite a team...
~G
Even tonight, with his AVG dipping towards .250, he was swinging out of his shoes half the time. Brings a smile to your face, his own conviction in his destiny. :- )
Maybe Josh Hamilton is reaching, but it feels like practically every time Saunders touching the ball anymore it's tattooed. And I just don't know about the 150 Ks/Season any more, I was still expecting them until a week or so ago, but I noticed (via TexasLeaguers.com) that his whiff rate on fastballs dropped from 17.8% to 9.8% since May 8th, that's a big part of the game to suddenly improve by 100%.
I think the reason comes from the respect that Saunders is starting to develop around the league; I don't know if anyone else noticed, but at the end of April, Saunders was still seeing about 60% first pitch strikes, as he had last year. Pitchers weren't afraid, but then he had been proving difficult (He's OPS'ing 1.476 when he makes contact on the first pitch) and started hitting home runs and since then, the first pitch strike rate is down to 55.8% (overall). Adjusting to pitchers starting him out of the zone may have even been a big part of his early May struggles.
However, Saunders is also OPS'ing 1.085 when ahead in the count, or OPS+ing 122 relative to the league.
I had seen him when I first started looking, let him slip because it's easy to forget he stole 148 Bases in his career with how bad his knees got. He even struggled a lot early in his career (.667 OPS in his first 474 PAs in Toronto). That would be pretty fantastic too, the .900 OPS starting at 26. Let's call that the low side projection ;)
What would Floyd have been worth if he'd played center field like Matt Kemp? A big part of Griffey Jr's value was the fact that he hit those 50 HR's from center field...
... and this factoid you have:
his whiff rate on fastballs dropped from 17.8% to 9.8% since May 8th
That's one of the things that is still in the "mysterious" category for me, Saunders swinging through fastballs. It goes along with his having a high IN-zone swing rate.
Not saying it's good, or bad, or sideways. Just saying I haven't grok'ed the swingthrough part.
Here you are pointing out that the swingthroughs are falling off a cliff. Huh! Could be scary.