Statistical evidence of Wells' long-term ability to hit lies in the fact that he has had 3 MLB "cups of coffee," if you will: Det, '10, Det. '11 and Sea. '11.
In each of those mini-seasons he has OPS'ed at least 113. Even is you say that 20% of his Seattle '11 performance is luck based right now, well that still means he's a 143 OPS guy. BTW, that is exactly the number he had in Det. last year.
I don't see a worst case than this, he could only be a .250-ish, .310-is, .450-ish 20-22ish HR CF.
That's not a bad low side. That equals an OPS that, two years ago, we all were hopeful Guti could sustain longterm.
And while he does't wallk much, I'll point out that his OBP, in Seattle, is 80 pts. above his BA. Hey, he gets beaned. I haven't noticed him crowing the plate...but perhaps the reason he can cover the outside black so well, remember your freeze frame from the other day, Doc, is that he does take his stance on the incide line of the box. I'll have to look for that.
I sai at the time of the trade that he had to be an every-day player for the swap to make sense. More and more, I see an every-day productive multi-tool player.
.........
Are we imagining things,
or did we really hear something go, "THWOCKKKK!" out there on the lawn ...
.
Powerful statement of the case against Casper Wells, here and here. Good stuff amigos :- )
So we get some interesting pitches coming down the pipe; let's see if they stand up to scrutiny, like DiceK's gyroball being tested by Ichiro ...
.
I agree a bit with Casper [as to this being nothing more than a little hot streak, with a huge crash to follow - Dr D].
Casper is more likely to tail off in power a bit and his true-talent BABIP is probably under .300 making him more of a platoon/4th OF type.
No question: Casper Wells has a DWN scenario, the scenario in which he suddenly starts flailing and never stops, until he's out of baseball. Last night, I pegged it as having a 25% chance of occurring.
***
But. A good portion of the SSI/MC/DOV citizenry aren't watching all that much baseball any more :- )
I wonder (simply wonder) whether Casper Wells naysayers are, right now, mostly those who have not been watching him play?
If the naysaying is based on "He was a schlub in the minors and his luck stats are up right now, so ... " then we can sympathize, but Capt Jack and Dr. D believe that the projection may be a wee bit more complex ...
.
Casper is more likely to tail off in power a bit and his true-talent BABIP is probably under .300 making him more of a platoon/4th OF type.
... I know well enough that anyone on pace for 55 HRs and 0 doubles is running a line utterly impossible to maintain.
I'm not at all averse to this line of thinking. It was mine, on Carlos Peguero. He was OPS'ing 1100 or something when he came up, and I buried my face in my hands after one game :- )
Later, SSI's assessment of Peguero was sympathetic: IF he could ever bat .230, he could help, but that .230 was going to be a whale of an elusive mark for him.
On Casper Wells, it's another conversation. This guy doesn't have a 45-degree tilted swing and strike zone coverage the size of a license plate. He's got a Sexson-compact swing and hits pitches in all locations.
***
The question of the BABIP came up earlier -- ghost noticed the high BABIP, but hadn't noticed that BABIP-adjusted, Wells' numbers are still sizzling.
In Detroit, Wells' BABIP was normal (.313), and his HR/F and HR's actually very low (10.0% HR/F rate and 15 HR's per full season) -- yet his OPS+ was 114. Wells was batting his expected .257, and unlucky on his HR stats -- but he was 14% better than the league.
"On pace" for 55 HR's and 0 doubles sounds like one thing; 6 homers and 0 doubles sounds like another. Wells is slugging .649 in Safeco (!!) and if you move a few HR's to the doubles column, his wRC+ goes from 191 to, like, 175.
This seems to be a consistent trap that we fall into: Joe Shlabotnik has an OPS+ of 200, but his luck stats of BABIP and HR/F are up, so people go "that doesn't count." We forget to calculate that with normal luck stats, the guy's OPS+ is still 150 :- )
.
His minor league profile fairly screams that he's really a .250 hitter with a modest walk rate, insignificant speed and solid pop.
The minor league ISO is 250 lifetime and he averaged nearly 30 homers per 150 games, including his formative years.
If you're assessing Wells' pop as "solid," like say Miguel Olivo's, I wonder how much you've watched him play in the American League. This guy is a physical beast.
I'd say that this is precisely the question: is Casper Wells' power "solid" and boring, or is it special.
The same was true of, say, Richie Sexson, Jesse Barfield, Dean Palmer and Matt Williams. If their power had been "solid," then they'd have been useless.
SSI would propose that a glance at Wells' minors statline does provoke the naysaying reaction -- lousy AVG, no BB's to speak of, late to arrive in the big leagues, move on. A Zduriencik-diligent study of Wells is going to stand or fall with the question of, "Is Wells' power special."
.
Take it from the guy who warned Kennedy was an 84 OPS+ guy when he was at 110 and Jamey Wright could not maintain his miraculous form from April ... I don't see statistical evidence of actual growth as a hitter. Enjoy the streak - because the slump is likely going to be very, very ugly.
:- ) Many, many impressive calls on your resume San-Man... same goes for Taro... Jamey Wright was one of them and it's not unlikely that Kennedy was another...
Geoff Baker was warning, from May, that Adam Kennedy was going to wear down under constant exposure, and that's the alternative view here ...
Kennedy has a career OPS+ of 95-100 in the AL, or 88 in both leagues, and he's a much more extreme "topspin" hitter than Raul Ibanez. Kennedy was born for Safeco and his OPS+ will certainly be higher there than in a neutral park.
Everybody with the Mariners would diagnose overexposure here, an age-35 fade in the second half, but it's not impossible that he's simply a lousy hitter, I guess.
.
Mind you, there's nothing generically wrong with a 100 OPS+ OF (especially when your club has been running 70s and 80s out there for some time). But, I'm much higher on Trayvon becoming a 120 OPS+ guy (a couple of years down the line, perhaps) than betting the MLB BA is indicative of true improvement.
Right - we'd have given our kingdom for a solid 100 earlier in the year ... that's not to say it's a long-term solution in LF ...
Wells' AVG is .333 with the Mariners and we all know that Wells is not a .300 hitter. :- ) I'd be very skeptical of .280 long term, too.
However, he is at a 191 index right now (!!), and I'd argue that people are overlooking how much margin for error he has to fall off that, and still index 115-120.
At .250/.320/.450 in Safeco, Wells would be a 120 hitter here. If you've been watching him swing the bat, as Eric Wedge has, it's been hard not to be startled by the talent he's shown.
***
There's definitely a downside for Wells and it's been described here -- that one day he'll simply start flailing helplessly and, basically, never stop doing so.
But Casper Wells doesn't transfer his weight much, doesn't move his head whatsoever, takes a very quiet swing ... and yet the power remaining is enough to clear Safeco's fences by 12 rows. Wow. I'm quite taken aback by the natural power and the implications for his contact ability.
SSI remains quite intrigued by Wells' chances to OPS+ 120 in Safeco. It will be a fascinating 0H 2012 subplot.
.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
I hear you, Moe, (and you too, Doc).
It is quite conceivable, given age and background that Casper has simply taken his game up a notch and the minor league stats are underselling his current (and future) ability. I certainly appreciate that Doc's Kinesiology skills are considerable and mine are nil. Would love to swing and miss on this call.
But, why the MLB numbers don't impress me.
His career minors template:
90 patience and 250 ISO on top of a .250 average. Whiffing every 4th PA. That's his career line *AND* his 2010 line in Toledo. No evidence of growth or change. He "flipped" his 2B/HR line back in 2008 from 2:1 to 1:1.
His MLB line is 60 patience, 230 ISO on top of a .290 average. He's whiffing every 4th PA.
My foundation principle here is that we have MLE charts. They say "typically", players (as a group), suffer decline going from AAA to majors. Competition is tougher. Makes sense. But, "some players" get better even after making that move. In order to improve production rates against better competition *something* has to change in the players' favor.
For a guy like Carp, where I see evidence of adaptation, growth and altering of approach while still in the minors, I'm much more open to believing MLB production increases may be 'real' rather than transient.
Casper's Detroit numbers this season "feel" more in tune with what I would expect long term. (And at a 113 OPS+ is certainly nothing to sneeze at). But 3 short looks is different than one long look. Saunders is a poor comp as player type - but is illustrative of a guy incapable of adjusting once the league starts figuring him out.
As for my 55 and 0 comment ... my purpose is to try and emphasize that whatever the analysis of his current mechanics may be - he is not hitting well for Casper Wells. He is hitting well for Ryan Howard. If *every* squared ball clears the fence, he's in a zone that Hall of Famers rarely visit. (which may be reason to get excited ... but also reason to take in-the-moment analysis with a grain of salt).
The league was "still" challenging Ackley after 40 games. They're still challenging Carp. It'll be late September before they get around to not challenging Casper this year (if then).
I'm concerned that because of the quick starts by Ackley and Carp that perceptions have been skewed to forget that 'most' prospects hit worse once they hit the bigs. And I know Seattle fans have precious little experience with actual player development (outside of pitchers) in the last decade.
But, it's a joy to be "down" on a prospect as "only" a 100 OPS+ guy in any case.
I'm concerned that because of the quick starts by Ackley and Carp that perceptions have been skewed to forget that 'most' prospects hit worse once they hit the bigs. And I know Seattle fans have precious little experience with actual player development (outside of pitchers) in the last decade.
But, it's a joy to be "down" on a prospect as "only" a 100 OPS+ guy in any case.
Agreed. I think Casper Casey Wells the Fifth is...decent. He's been murderously hot, but I expect him to cool off and come back to earth a bit. I see him more like Jose Guillen as far as batting eye, power, and outfield arm go...but that's FINE. Jose Guillen, age 26 on, was very good for several years. An OPS+ of 142, 121, 116, and 116 in 4 years out of a 5 year stretch? I would LOVE to get that from The Fifth.
And all signs point to Wells being far more Jay Buhner than Jose Guillen in the clubhouse.
Like you said, the down-side of Wells is a 100 OPS+. Midpoint might be some of Guillen's better years of 115, upper a Buhner-esque 130.
I have to like that kind of prospect. I'm warming to him, just watching the way he swings, and how he carries himself. I no longer feel like he has to play CF to avoid being Just A Guy. We've been desperately missing Raul Ibanez...well here's a decent shot at Ibanez with better D and an arm. I'll take him.
In semi-related news...has anyone noticed how Kyle Seager has climbed out of his early hole in a BIG way the last 2 weeks? 1.085 OPS in his last 9 games. He's showing some of the power his critics (including me) said he didn't have with his zero hand load, and he has a rifle for an arm over there at 3B.
One of the opposing commentators (Angels maybe?) said he really reminded them of Lonnie Chisenhall, the top hitting prospect for the Indians. Now, I'm not a huge Chisenhall guy either, for the record, but I do think Seager can be a 100 OPS+ guy as well. We seem to be stocking up on these guys. It's crazy.
Wells, Carp, Smoak and Ackley all meet or exceed the "100 OPS+ downside" criteria. Trayvon and Seager are both sporting a 105 OPS+ midrange, IMO. Nobody's REACHING to achieve that "average offensive player" outcome.
That leaves our theoretical 80 OPS+ hitters as Ryan (for whom we have Nick Franklin and Brad Miller as two blue-chippers in system aiming to take over in a year or two), Olivo (we need a blue-chip prospect to understudy for him ASAP) and...Ichiro. :( In this scenario I'm assuming Guti gives way to Trayvon.
Peguero, Carp (moving out from DH), Catricala and Halman are all options for the OF that would let Wells The Fifth slide to RF in 2013 to replace Ichiro.
We COULD run with a bunch of kids for our entire offense, and have a decent shot at a middle-of-the-pack offensive performance. I would still love to get Prince Fielder to DH here (or play a joint 1B/DH with Smoak), let Carp split ABs with Wells until Ichiro is gone, and see what kind of offense that could bring.
But with merely moderate fortune, I understand the attraction most of our kids hold. Their ability to not-suck is leaps and bounds ahead of what we've been watching the last few years, and that in itself is encouraging.
~G
What would folks put as the percentage chance that they would actually run an "everyday" lineup in '12 of roughly:
RF Ichiro
3b Seager
2b Ackley
DH Carp
1b Smoak
LF Wells
C Olivo
CF Robinson
SS Ryan
That's 6 guys with less than 2 years of experience and all of your heart of the order in that category.
It actually wouldn't shock me. Wedge more or less said yesterday that they didn't have a MOTO until Ackley and Carp decided to take over the lineup. A few Adam Kennedys or Wily Mo's sprinkled in here and there, but basically going with the youth nucleus.
Think they will?
Spec, I almost posted today a question about exactly the lineup you just laid out....in exactly the same batting order. No kidding.
More and more, that looks like a pretty likely proposition.
After his 3rd torrid game in a row, today, I think it is an absolute lock that Seager opens the '12 season in Seattle.
I actually wondered today (to myself) if Z and Wedge would be brazen enough to start Seager at SS in '11? A hit first/field 2nd type in the (obviously with less bat) Jeter mold.
I'm willing to bet that we see Seager at SS again in the next couple of days, maybe a couple of times. Ryan's dinged up shoulder certainly needs a day off, doesn't it? Seager's '12 role might depend on if the M's see Franklin as THE SS in '13 or is he a 3B?
Are the M's brazen enough to just eat Figgins' salary and waive him? Don't know.
But a Seager/Ryan/Ackley infield needs a backup glove or two. Does Figgins take that role willingly? Resign Kennedy? I could live with Jack Wilson back again, but you would still need a 3B type of guy.
Seager? He can look for his '12 Seattle digs.
moe
Dr. D was smoldering at the bandwagon exodus after Seager was about 2-for-20 ... this included the Mariners themselves...
Give a kid 50 (?) at-bats in AAA, pole-vault him to the AL, and then JUDGE HIM BASED ON HIS FIRST WEEK .... Dr. D doesn't throw the term "ridiculous" around much, but the bail on Kyle Seager fit the description...
***
Am more optimistic on Seager than I was when he was called up. Got every chance at a Kevin Seitzer type career.
Whatja think of them playing him at SS?, earmarking him for #5 IF in 2012...
Two Q's for you amigo:
1. Whither the Matinee Idol?
2. Where do you spend your money?
***
I have a dark-horse inkling around the idea of dealing Justin Smoak for a Justin Upton type...
I can easily see Zduriencik sitting back this fall and waiting for a GM to come trolling for Smoak. With Carp looking like the real deal, if not in fact "realer" than Smoak, and Prince Fielder looming on the horizon, I think there's a serious likelihood that this could be Jack's big winter move. And I'm thinking more and more that it would be a smart one, given fair return.
I've never been fond of dealing for first basemen. They're the easiest guys to dig up, especially if they are not very good fielders. Much better to pick them up as throw-ins in deals with the Mets, and spend your big money elsewhere, like re-signing Bedard.
I could even see a scenario where Jack makes a trade partner take Chone along with Justin. Maybe for that catcher prospect we need.
Or Kennedy, if you prefer: get your 90 OPS+ out of him at multiple positions, 2B, 3B, SS in a pinch...
Can he be the full-time 3B? Sure, he could be. I think it's like David Bell where you'd rather have him at 2B, but Seager has always struck me as a mentally tough kid. He's the kind of guy who grits out a 10 year major-league career.
But he's been rushed to the bigs. This is not his top end. Just because I have him as a good team guy, a #5 IF, a bench warrior who can sub for any infield starter who gets injured...
Doesn't mean that's where he's aimed at or confined to. Kevin Seitzer works as a higher-end comp. Not having watched the majority of Seitzer's career, Seager strikes me as having a very Jeff-Cirillo skillset: 35 doubles, 10 HRs, .8 batting eye, and hitting for a higher average than you might think. Mentally tough Jeff Cirillo hitting from the correct side of the plate for the park sounds fine to me.
The Brewers version of Cirillo was fabulous. Seager's productivity would likely bop around with his average, a la Ichiro (or a guy like Joe Randa if you want to talk about earthlings), but there are worse problems to have.
~G