=== Plus, not Plus-Plus, Command ===
Here is one of Beavan's better AB's from Monday night, a first-inning strikeout of Josh Willingham:
True, he does manage to get through 7 pitches without giving Willingham much to hit, except the one centered FB that Willingham fouled back. And, granted, there are three pretty nice jam pitches there, although Beavan is wide open to simply "Ball Two" on any of them.
But this is nibbling, as opposed to painting.
Go through a Doogie AB like this and you'll find strikes on the hands, strikes on the black, strikes at the letters, all done at will ... and no mistakes like that red one in the middle.
And this is one of the better Beavan AB's I could find. Beavan nibbles, and he gives in, as opposed to painting like Doogie does.
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I'm not trying to bury the guy. I'm trying to document the reasons that I don't believe his command is in the Fister class. Yet, anyway.
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=== Mix 'em Up? Dept. ===
Can Beavan start throwing curves and changes? Probably not. His run value is -6 runs per 100 changes (!) and -8 runs (!!) on the curve.
Beavan is doing the right thing, throwing the pitch that he can execute well. See this very info-taining article on the idea of trying to win with just a fastball.
But it is our duty to report that the 5-for-5 quality starts are defying gravity. He's giving up 26% line drives and what happened was that he founds tons of leather to cobble those five good starts. At Boston, for example, he gave up 10 line drives (!!) but somehow came out of it with a QS.
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True, Beavan has a terrific motion and he has demonstrated plus command. It's just a real hard uphill climb, pitching to contact like that with such a mediocre pitch.
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=== Counterexamples, Dept. ===
Who, in recent history, did use (only) a 90 fastball to generate very few K's, only 1+ walks, and consistently good results?
Doug Fister had an unusual fastball -- for movement, release point, and precision. He also had a change.
Bartolo Colon does indeed pitch like Beavan, using Catfish-level command (and hyper-aggressiveness) to stay way ahead in the count.
Justin Masterson doesn't count, for obvious reasons.
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But there are some guys who try to use (almost) nothing except pure command. Rick Porcello may be Beavan's star-crush. In 2009 and 2010 Porcello did everything Beavan does:
- 90-91 mph exactly
- 70% fastballs
- ALL of his offspeed pitches were slime
- 4+ strikeouts, 2+ walks
But Porcello simply threw so many quality fastballs that he hung in there as a 100-ish pitcher. (In Safeco, that woulda been 110.)
Then, by Y3, Porcello had honed three (3) different offspeed pitches to the point to where they were all plus, and now he's a good starter...
There are a few guys like this. Trevor Cahill. Check his rookie year, and year two. He was dubious his first year or two, and then developed his offspeed stuff to become a good #3 pitcher.
Doug Fister is obviously another example. Porcello, Cahill, Fister, and Beavan are pitchers, and sometimes pitchers improve.
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=== Dr's Prognosis Dept. ===
Most guys, using Beavan's approach, get splattered.
This year and next, if Beavan's going to be a 100 pitcher, he's going to need to throw one quality pitch after another, with no margin for error.
Later on, he might (probably will) hone his offspeed stuff and become a fairly good starter.
It's gonna be more white-knuckle than you think, though. Blake Beavan ain't no 100% Quality Start pitcha.
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BABVA,
Dr D