Seattle Sports Insider

M's 4, A's 2: the Game in Ten Plays (I)

Posted by

7/5/11

........

=== Play One ===

In the 2nd, Felix Hernandez throws a 1-2 "changeup" to Conor Jackson, striking him out. The ball arrived at 88 mph, diving like a forkball just as Jackson swung.

Felix' change has always been a historically-great pitch, and in 2011 it has taken residence on stage in the Theater of the Absurd.

Felix saved the Mariners .9 runs with just 23 changeups on Tuesday, and he got 22% swinging strikes with it. Its runs value on the season is -3.73 runs below average per 100 pitches, and I do not remember the last time a hitter put it in play in fair territory.

***

The game in 10 plays: Felix threw one of his best games ever Tuesday, throwing (in essence) a 10K, 0BB shutout with a lucky 360-foot fly ball solo home run.

In May, somebody asked us whether Pineda had surpassed Felix. Our perspective at the time: if you can bank Pineda's next 15,000 pitches at 95-97 mph, then maybe so. But Felix has 15,000 pitches like this behind him, and 45,000 like it in front of him.

In the 1980's, we used to always talk about, wouldn't it be nice if the Mariners had a "Monster Righthander" to anchor the ballclub.

=== Play Two ===

In the 8th, Kurt Suzuki hits a solo HR to break up the shutout. Felix was tiring just a tiny bit, and he missed with two fastballs to go down 2-0 to Suzuki.

On 2-0, Suzuki loaded up for the FB, and Felix gave it to him -- 93 mph, up and centered. Suzuki hit a high fly ball that cleared the nearby LF fence by approximately one foot.

Blowers laughed, "Randy Johnson used to say 'gimme two.' Something can always go wrong to give them one run."

=== Play Three ===

In the 1st, Jamile Weeks caught stealing. Weeks led off the game with a crisp line single, and took off for second. He had the throw beaten easily, headfirst, but he came into the bag much too hard.

Ackley read this, and as Weeks overslid the bag, Ackley stayed down on top of him all the way, and emphasized the foot-tag to the umpire. The umpire rung Weeks up.

Had Derek Jeter made the play in the World Series, they'd have talked about it all winter... just the kind of heads-up play that winners make, don'cha know. I dunno about that, but I do wonder about a recent 2B conversion being alert to that particular play...

Ackley is +36 runs per UZR, and the next error he makes will be his first. He is going to be a very, very low mistake middle infielder, and a Jeter-esque "heads up" fielder.

Bill James said, "In any sport, there is no overstating the importance of having intelligent players in the middle of the field." Chess and game theory does nothing but enhance your appreciation for the benefits of having the correct things occurring in the center. Then, good things radiate to the sides.

SSI is drooling over the prospect of having the heady Dustin Ackley standing in the intersection of 5th and Yesler for six years.

Comments

Felix' F/X chart

Here's that chart again.
You understand that "+6 mph" means that Felix' cutter is thrown 6 mph harder than the typical MLB cut fastball, "+4 mph" means that his slider is thrown 4 mph harder than a typical MLB slider, etc.

The bizarre pitch is the changeup ... somehow Felix is throwing an 88-90 mph pitch that has forward rotation on it. You'd think you have to push a pitch with your fingers a little bit to get it going 90 blinkin' mph.
The cutter is equally strange, but this seems to be a brand new pitch. Maybe it will become his second illegal pitch.

I dunno...

That curve looks pretty illegal too.

That Change

His change is just filthy right now. There are guys in this league that feature a fastball that has similar velocity and less movement. One more reason to expect a long career out of Felix.

I could see Felix going on an

I could see Felix going on an absolute tear on the 2nd half. Hes one guy in rotation that is more likely to do better, than worse.

Gooden, Beckett, Blyleven

It's funny ... sometimes pitchers start the All-Star game with two pitches: Felix' fastball, and Felix' curve.
Or Felix could use only his FB and change, those two pitches, and definitely be one of the top pitchers in the game.
Now that we have F/X here, it's too bad you can't go retro with it. I would really like to know whether Felix had the overall best stuff of any pitcher who ever lived. Two epic breaking pitches, 5-6 overall strikeout pitches, plus-plus command of a top-10 fastball. I don't see anybody in the Neyer/James book who matches that.
And it's not clear that he isn't getting better. Since when does he throw a cut fastball?

FB vs change

There are guys in this league that feature a fastball that has similar velocity and less movement.

Yeah, like 80% of them ::laughing::

only 80%?

The armside run he gets on even his 4-seamer is large compared to the average pitcher....'s TWO SEAMER!...LOL
He has Greg Maddux' pinpoint command of a Maddux-esque 2-seam pitch...thrown in there at 96 instead of 90. And he's adding weapons still...a cutter that behaves like Rivera's cutter...a change that behaves like Brown's SPLITTER (!), a curve that is almost as nuclear as Erik Bedard's Nintendo curve, a two-seamer that can result in no-hitters if thrown 80% of the time in any particular game, and a slider that, while not as sharp as Pineda's...is a lot harder. Seriously? All that? How in the world does he ever give up runs?

It always feels like..

Felix gives up runs early on... And it always feels like it's because he doesn't have a good feel on how his pitches are going to break. Mind you, he roared out of the gate with Bard as his catcher, but...
Felix will improve, but right now it almost seems like he has the curse of too much talent... His arsenal is so good break/run/speed-wise that I wouldn't be surprised if HE didn't know what his pitches will do on any given day.
Combine that with umpires that will give you this, but not that, on any given day and it results in what looks like wild schizophrenia.
A cursory look at our rotation is kinda interesting because the Nintendo pitchers (Felix, Bedard) seem to walk batters more early on in the game than the more command-oriented pitchers (Pineda, Fister, Vargas) based on pitchcounts...