=== Play Four ===

In the 10th, David DeJesus, bunting for a hit, is thrown out.  DeJesus laid down the type of hyper-buntage that will, literally, result in a .700 batting average.  It was very long, to the pitcher's mound; it was to the pitcher's right as he fell off the mound; it was directly at the SS, in no-man's land.

Adam Kennedy blurred across the TV screen, scooped it, and ran up the mound two steps to fire at Smoak from the pitcher's rubber.  OUT!!

***

In June, there was speculation that it would hurt the Mariners to substitute Adam Kennedy for Chone Figgins ... and a lot of speculation, in June, that Dustin Ackley's callup would net the Mariners exactly zero.

The basis?  Back-of-the-envelope calculations, in which Kennedy and Ackley gave back -10, -20 UZR defensive runs, totally negating any offensive advantage they would gain, no matter how lousy the hitters they were replacing.

***

It is Dr. D's considered opinion that, because of UZR, we now understand baseball less well than we used to.  

We used to understand that a borderline-HOF'er like Bobby Abreu was a better baseball player than bench OF'er Endy Chavez.  In Seattle, we are no longer clear on whether HOF'ers are better than glove-first benchies.

Baseball was better off before the saves statistic, it was better off before Pitcher Abuse Points dogma, and it was better off before the bright pink foam-rubber UZR/WAR bat showed up to thwack us all into centrally-controlled groupthink.

***

All information is good, but misuse of information can be harmful - and deceitful information is worse than no information at all.  UZR has, through nobody's poor intentions, confused us about which players are the good ones.  

I'm not trying to be a wiseacre.  I mean it literally, not pejoratively.  We're dumber for having submitted to the UZR-dogma foam rubber bat, at least in the way it was wielded the first time around.  

Did we used to not know whether Endy Chavez was better than Bobby Abreu?  Did we used to not know whether you take a .230-OBP Chone Figgins out of the lineup?

***

So what do you do about defensive evaluation?  The best thing, right now, would be just to go back to scouts' recommendations -- score plus or minus five runs for good or bad defenders, score plus or minus ten runs for great ones, with SS's and C's a special case.  And keep researching.

***

Be that as it may, the Fightin' Irishman is a converted 2B and that means he's presumptively (not necessarily, but presumptively) a quality 3B.  

His 3B range factors are right at league average for his career, with normal error rates.  Earl Weaver's observation is that when you can't score runs, you've got to put the bats into the lineup.  (Kennedy had a big double in Tuesday's game, too.)

Figgins' OBP is .230, and for me, the swap is waaayyyyyy past "no-brainer."  You wouldn't leave an 8.25 ERA in the rotation, and you're not going to leave a .230 OBP in the lineup.

Going forward, the M's have a quality ballplayer at third base.  The second half offense and the ballclub is, on paper, better.

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