The Juggernaut with a 2.30 ERA the last 31 days...
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Q. Great game by Pineda, eh?
A. Terrible game by Pineda - by far the worst I've seen him throw.
Well, in terms of life in his arm,. He was 91-96 mph, had several innings of alarming velo, and was down a good -2.0 mph.
Here is his velocity graph. He was 91-93 for quite a while, and did push it up into the 94-96 band for two innings, before falling back down to 91-93 .... and finally reaching back in the last inning for 95 again.
That's not Michael Pineda. He was laboring.
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Q. Whyfor?
A. During the game, it looked to me like he was sick.
He was sweating like a horse on a 68 degree (humid) night, when their guy was much drier. He had a pained look on his sweat-soaked face, did not enjoy the game at all ...
After the game, the TV showed him taking pills and a cup of water in the dugout, the moment he was pulled. Which I was delighted to see.
.........
Possible causes of the lousy* fastball, from least worrying to most worrying:
Hopefully Baker and the M's will release a little info about it. ... Pineda did reach back for a few 97's, so my first guess would be just that he's not feeling well.
But, he was down in velo a little the start before, too...
........
You know why he might be entering a dead-arm stage? Because he's been amp'ed up and throwing max velo all year, and has never had a "rest game" of getting knocked out of the box. He's pitched into the 7th and 8th inning in each game; most pitchers come out early once in a while...
He was tugging at his shirt a lot, wiggling his arm, stretching it, stuff you don't like to see.
Willis tracks the velo readings grimly, and he'll look into it. If it's a dead arm, they gotta skip one turn. Then he's 98 again.
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Q. Um, he threw a 2-hit shutout with 9 strikeouts.
A. Supposing that Pineda dropped down to 93-94 mph permanently, with a wipeout power curve ... another man who threw just like that was the young Roy Oswalt. On Saturday, you just saw Roy Oswalt (standing on a 5-gallon restaurant service ketchup bucket).
Two pitches, a great breaking ball, 94 mph, excellent command, that was Oswalt. .. or the young Jered Weaver -- if you add +4 mph and confiscate his ganja during a spitball search.
What you just saw, was how "broken" the game is with Michael Pineda pitching. Pineda sick and not throwing hard, that's an All-Star starter. What is he at 98 mph? One of the real freaks of the post-1970 era.
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I don't imagine that eight games in the big leagues and now suddenly, after two years there, he's not 98 any more. Would assume it's some little thing like a 7-day cold, or a dead arm phase.
Will feel a lot better if Geoffy reports on what was going on.
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Q. If he was weak, why was the slider better?
A. Pitchers tell you this all the time. They were tired, and hey, you know what, my breaking ball was great.
Of the Padres' eight hitters, five were left hand batters. They couldn't find Pineda's slider with a paddle.
We haven't been keeping up: around the other sites, is the Pineda vs LHB issue dead now?
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Q. Anything else?
A. Unless we missed something, Pineda just tied for the MLB lead in wins, with 6.
He's on pace for 22-7, 2.16, and the American League Cy Young award -- would it surprise you if that was exactly what he did?
..........
Granted, we 'net rats talk about keeping his innings to 160 or some such silly number. Go check the last hundred years, bambino. Most of the 4,000 inning pitchers in the HOF threw 250, 300 innings their rookie seasons. The "pitcher abuse" fad can sometimes go wayyyy too far.
..........
He was on pace to earn $22m before tonight; now I'd guess it's over $25m. How does a free Lee/Halladay sound to you?
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Pineda is the only AL starter with more than a strikeout per inning.
His K/BB of 4.0 (before the game) was among the top 5 for rookies -- ever.
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Q. Too bad Petco robbed Wilson of that third hit...
A. When Wilson came up, the SSI scouting report had him as a completely different hitter than the Balentiens, Halmans or even Pegueros...
Wilson is balanced at the plate, gets a good look at the ball, can allow the pitch to get deep, and then hit it hard the other way.
That first double was on a fastball absolutely painted, right at the knees, a pitcher's pitch -- and Wilson crushed it to right center for an inside-the-park home run. Well, he stopped at second.
The first single was a sharp single the other way - not doing too much with it.
And he deserved a HR, pretty much, on the long fly ball... wow, what timing, for a kid who's been in the deep freeze. Three hard hits, none of them pulled/yanked to left.
Mike Wilson is an interesting prospect, kiddies. There are late bloomers in baseball.
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Q. What happened in extry innings?
A. Angels blew a 4-0 lead, with a 95.3% win expectancy, and rolled over in 12 innings. That's Gotta Hurt.
I dunno about you, but I hate having a 95.3% win and then losing the game.
M's -1.5 out of first place. Get Ackley in there, you feebs.
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Happy Felix Day,
Dr D
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...definitely a lot of +5, -6, +5 swings going on here...based on whether we get production from the bottom of the order on any given week.
Is it sad that I am actually looking forward to Ryan's ABs more than Figgins' right now?
Anyway, this rotation is really starting to become ridiculous. Sandy's rule of thumb...streaks last 2-6 weeks...well we're in week 5 for the rotation...does Sandy want to claim the rotation is streaking? :)
I'd jus like to say that Smoak's current hitting funk is well-timed...the other guys are all hitting better...especially Ryan/Wilson/Wilson/Peguero...so Smoak's bad stretch isn't hurting the team too badly. But I'd like to see him get hot again soon, please.
I would want to keep Ackley down until hes really mashing in AAA. Mini-slump has him back at a 796 OPS for the year. You wouldn't want to overreact to a hot streak.. Hes way too important for our future.
Ms are winning again today, but I don't think contention this year is very likely given the holes in the lineup. Next year is possible depending on the moves made in the offseason.
Its just BABIP regression (he'll like regress a little more since its still a bit high). Smoak's power and BBs are in place. Power usually comes in bunches.
...how many Mariners fans think contention is literally impossible (or at least so unlikely as to make going for the win a bad idea) despite the fact that our rotation is running a 2.25 ERA in the last 32 days (29 ballgames)! That's...I just don't know how you fight that kind of pessimism.
Mega respect to you taro...you really know your baseball as you prove every year in fantasy play...but I just can't share your lack of enthusiasm. This team feels on the verge of something truly wonderful. Peguero and Wilson look like they can cobble together at least a 90-100 OPS+, Ryan should return to his normal (75-80, not 50) and his defense will probably get better. Olivo's BABIP isn't going to stay this low and you've got Bard available to help at the catching position. Ackley should be up soon and will probably upgrade 2B even over Kennedy's hot start...we dont need offensive miracles with this rotation...I am MAJORLY excited about this team...
...of what this Mariners pitching staff could put together with a real offense. Just wipeout, humiliating games for the opposition. Pauley is one of my favorite pitchers this year. The Padres announcers were wistful talking about him and how he was a Padre back before the 2004 trade. He's found his niche and his comfort level, and he's dominant. They compared his motion and stuff to Derek Lowe.
Anyway...we have a great rotation and potentially a very good pen if League could shore it up and when we get Kelley/Lueke back. Lueke closed out the game easily again today, and his only - ONLY - wobble was when he'd thrown 2.1 innings and they brought him back out for a third. April 28th: lucky HR. May 16th: zeros til his appearance for a third inning of work. That's it. That's all his runs in Tacoma this year. He's still not striking em out like I want, but he's a good pitcher.
Ackley hit another HR. His callup in a couple weeks is basically inevitable.
And I agree, contention is NOT impossible - but I don't want to push all-in for just this year when Olivo, Ryan, Saunders, Wilson, Peguero, Guti, Cust and Figgins could all swim in the Abyss of Suckitude for months just as easily as they could climb out.
Last year we thought, "surely they'll climb out." They never did.
So IF we want to go for it, then IMO we need to pick up multi-year assets to offset what we give away in farm value, because while the pitching this year is setting up to keep us in the race as long as they can, we literally can't afford to be swapping out prized assets for expiring contracts.
We have assets. I am absolutely okay with trading those assets for pieces of a contender this year AND in future years. But we can't afford to give away our Choos and As-Cabs (he hit 2 hr today, btw, giving him an OPS+ of 140 for the low price of $2 million dollars) to bolster a team that needs everything to go right in order to contend.
We CAN contend. But no, I don't bet the farm on this year. I look forward to seeing what Zduriencik does with the assets he's been collecting and whether we decide to upgrade the offense in June or July, rather than wait for it to waste away and then trade pitching at the deadline.
Does he feel good enough about what he's collected (or with how it's overperforming at some level) to swap it for major league assets?
So I guess what I'm curious about is: Do you believe the roster we have available to us (pros and minors, no trades) can stay in contention all year?
And if not, how much are you willing to swap to improve it to the point that it can?
Do you stick a toe in the water, look for a Ryan Ludwick patch for an Alex Liddi or something? That's a sop to "we're trying to compete this year" without either giving up anything or getting an impact player.
Do you pull a Cliff Lee and trade Franklin/Wilhelmsen/Ramirez for 4 months of Jose Reyes or something slightly less for Jason Kubel's second half? Might get some impact that way, but only for this season, and then you don't have those players to trade for assets in the offseason.
I've already said I would trade for an Ethier (same bat impact as Kubel or the max from Reyes, but here for 1.5 years), or a Carlos Quentin, Hunter Pence, or a Justin Upton. I'm down with chasing a pennant this year AND for years to come.
That'll cost us better minor leaguers, but return us better players to help now and in 2012-13 to boot.
What would you add to this team to enable its contention this year? Or do you think they can hang with the rest of the division (Texas gets Cruz and Hamilton back this week) all season?
This rotation DOES look like it wants to go playoff-hunting. I know this weekend felt great - I LOVED it - but I don't think the offense can hang with the rest of the division without outside help.
~G
For my money, there's no need to mortgage anything this year. There's also no reason to give up on it, given the opportunity afforded by the AL Worst thus far.
With any luck, this rotation can run several years together, even if Bedard breaks down. The rest of them are young and potentially improving, even. So I don't feel compelled to trade away Cabrera and Choo again, even if we were to do better in return than Perez and Broussard (shudder). I'm happy watching Smoak mature, and see whether a Peguero/Wilson platoon can produce. I think Ryan is on the road to being a solid fixture at short. I would keep JWilson, too – I have a 100% better feeling about him than I did last year, and he provides good insurance if Ryan goes down. I want to see Gutz work his way back and Ichiro put on his summer surge.
What I can't stomach anymore is Chone Figgins. He makes me miss watching Beltre flail at low-and-away sliders. I understand that it would take some major sweetener to package with him in order to move him, but I'm at the point where I'd send him to the Yankees for Silva.
Since that won't happen, I'd bench his butt in favor of Kennedy and go looking for other third base insurance and a bench bat that could press Cust for at least part of the DH role.
Figgins is a sunk cost, just as Bradley is/was. I need a change of scenery at third, and it needs to be able to swing a bat. What's Troy Glaus up to these days?
I remember challenging Sandy to wait until the Mariners actually put together a winning streak before putting too much stock in it. Since then they have put two good ones together. Hat's off to ya, Sandy.
With a team like that you can't get too high or too low. They will look super during the winning streaks, but they're not that good. They will look terrible during the losing streaks, but they're not as bad as they will look.
Hang around in the race long enough and you never know what might happen. I'm trying not to get too excited about Peguero because I know the league will book him and force him to adjust or die. Imagine if he actually progresses how that will transform the Mariners' lineup, especially if Ackley adjust quickly once he comes up. Come the July deadline, if the M's are still in it, things could get very interesting. Imagine:
Ichiro
Ackley
Smoak
Imported DH
Guttierez
Peguero (progressing enough to warrant owning LF)
Olivo
Ryan
Figgins (or, if he's hitting you can put Figgie 2nd and insert Ackley before Olivo)
I think there are too many holes in the offense once the pitching regresses some (there are 5 starters with an OPS+ under 70), but you never know. Maybe Wilson throws up 110 OPS+, Figgins and/or Ryan return, Ichiro goes nuts, Gut stays healthy, etc.
I just wouldn't prioritize contention this year over focusing on the long-term.
I want one big(ger) bat.
I think we can do some damage with a lineup of:
Ichiro
Ackley
Smoak
120 OPS+ or better BAT
Olivo
Kennedy
Guti
Peguero/Wilson tandem
Ryan/L-Rod tandem
Enough damage to squeak out some wins with this pitching staff, anyway. But we NEED that extra bat. It doesn't work with just Cust there, IMO, and I bench Figgins as well. Saunders should be in the minors.
Wilson and Peguero can DH too, so I'd be looking at that LF/DH position for a thumper. If Cust picks it up we can send Peguero and Wilson back to the minors and play the new guy in LF. If he keeps drowning as an RBI man then they can stay and Cust can go.
We'll see - Draft is in 2 weeks, as is Ackley's theoretical call up. Draft Rendon and Figgins is out of a job anyway, and it's just a matter of when and how to ditch him. And Ackley frees up Kennedy to take Chone's place in the meantime.
~G
Yes, the rotation is streaking. This doesn't mean they aren't good ... possibly the best in the game, mind you. They are VERY good. But, go find me a team that had a rotation put up a 2.00 ERA for a *SEASON*, and I'll start considering the concept that it's just going to be every opponent getting 1 run a game for the rest of the season.
Of course, as good as the rotation has been, Oakland's has been better ... (and they LOST a 3.00 ERA pitcher ... only to replace him with a 2.75 pitcher).
Of course, my 6-week outside for streaking was based primarily off hitters. SPs are a different animal and because they are so much more dependent on outside forces (the defense) for their final outcomes, there is a much higher 'fluke' factor (both directions). The Nolan Ryan #1 ERA 8-17 record being the most egregious example I can recall.
League had 4 bad outings in a row and his ERA went from 2.08 to .7.31 and the lynch mobs were ready to form. He was 13 of 15 in scoreless outings before his Hell Week, btw.
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If I were a betting man, I'd bet on sweeping the Twins in this next series, (which obviously will only fuel the fire that the team is competitive already). But, slumps and streaks aren't 'specifically' predictable. They start and end at weird times. But, given the state of the offense, I stand by my assertion that at some point, (probably in the next 30 days), the club is going to hit one of those lose 10 of 12 mine fields where the root cause of the loss is kicked around like a hackey sack. Fister grooves a few and gets walloped one day, Bedard only goes 4 and the bullpen implodes the next. The offense doesn't show and Pineda loses 2-1. Felix leaves in a tie game, which the bullpen loses in the 12th ... etc., etc., etc.
I see 14 hitters on the current roster. I count 9 with OPS scores below .600 (and LROD sits at .601 through Saturday ... bbref hasn't updated for Sunday, yet). If a club has only TWO bats on the whole team with an OPS above .700, (and one of those is the time-share 2B), the offense is almost guaranteed to finish last in run production.
This is not a club where there are a couple of 30-year old All-Stars hitting .300 points of OPS under their norms, (like the Twins). This is a club with one rising star, one fading HoFer and a bunch of has beens and never weres.
At some point ... doesn't the idea ... "We're bound to improve because we're SOOOO bad" run into the non-sequiter of "if we were a little better, our chance of becoming good would be less?!?"
Is it completely impossible that the Ms can compete this year? No. With the rest of the division playing near .500 ball, the Ms ARE hanging around. And having watched a Rockie team win 22 in a row to make the playoffs "possible" becomes a VERY, VERY wide door.
I think is could be argued, even the Twins, 13.5 back at the moment "could still win" this year, (which means ZERO teams are "truly" out of the race at this point). Though I doubt anyone is going to be placing any bets on teams like Baltimore or Pittsburgh or the Nats.
The "danger" I see is that the *risk* associated with trying to win THIS year are (IMO), extremely, extremely high. The mantra has been ... we need a "BIG BAT". Well, if that bat is in LF, the development options for Peguero and Wilson (and Carp, perhaps) are compromised. Of course, if you dump Cust, instead ... you're replacing a league average producer for your "Big Bat", which means the impact is far less impactful ... (replacing the 50 from Saunders with a 120 OPS+ can easily be argued as significant ... replacing a 100 with a 120 ... not so much).
Moreover, what has to be given to GET the big bat? The farm is thin already (with so many already having been called up and Ackley arriving any day). The Ms don't have "expendable" depth on the farm at this point.
Now Z managed to turn 3 low-level arms into Lee, which he flipped into Smoak. But, that was an off-season deal, followed by a mid-year dump. (And Aumont has a 12K/9 rate this year in AA). Who is going to trade TODAY? If the Ms are still in the race, who is out of it already?
At the end of April the Mets were "out of it" and Reyes and Beltran were being talked up as on the trading block. A little winning streak in May and now maybe the Mets are buyers, looking for starting pitching.
Do you trade Franklin (+) for ... say Beltran? Or Taijuan Walker and Robles?
Does trading Vargas or Fister for ... Jose Reyes get you closer to the playoffs this year ... and at what impact to the next several?
One reason to be wary of the fix-by-trade scenario is Z's track record has not exactly been stellar in regard to acquired veterans. Branyan may be his one "hit" -- (Kennedy this year could be viewed as #2, though I expect this to vanish over the year). Of course, mostly he's been going after bargain bin gambles. The only 'money' he spent was on Figgins ...
In the end, I think some of the most vocal proponents for "going for it" in 2011 reveal some of the underlying truth in their need for "immediate" action. ("Why is Ackley not already here! We need to acquire a big bat IMMEDIATELY!") IMO, this speaks to their understanding that without "immediate" help, then no, the team cannot possibly stay in the race until July when the bulk of trading occurs.
From MY perspective, if the team *IS* to compete in 2011, then they *MUST* do so with the core talent already on the team (plus Ackley, in due course). A big bat for DH means little if second, third, short and LF remain black holes. If LROD and Peguero and Ackley are going to adapt, adjust, develop and become productive ... let them. And *THEN*, if still in the race come July, you've got a much better picture of the team ... and it's true strength ... and its true needs.
Between now and July a LOT can happen. SPs can hit the DL. New RPs can arrive and be dominant. Rookies can blossom or veterans can swoon. Or, a combination of all of the above. If the pitching coach has Cust move his right foot two inches and suddenly he hits 6 HRs in 10 days ... the impact on the exact move the club needs to make changes drastically.
In truth, I will admit that I am naturally opposed to the "mercenary" approach to building a baseball team. But, I think history shows it doesn't work ... long or short term. Clubs that win almost all have a foundation of locally developed "never played elsewhere" POSITION players, who become the model for the organization. And I believe the quick-fix mentality of MANY organizations has been detrimental in both long and short term to them.
The Phillies tried the mercenary approach for years ... then sold some (instead of buying), and got really successful when the offense was built around the home-towners ... Howard, Utley, Rollins. Ruiz and Burrell. The Braves had Chipper, Andruw, Furcal. (I think mercenary pitching is less of an issue).
But, I see even the good organizations go south when they get addicted to the quick fix over the 'riskier' developmental path. I think my articles from years ago "Planning to Flail" and "Savior Behavior" are more apt today than when I wrote them.
The error I see is in the pretense that "going for it" in 2011 doesn't have potential negative ramifications for 2012 and beyond ... that one can make moves for today with no "cost" for tomorrow. How many YEARS of damage were done when Bavasi decided a couple of big bats (Sexson and Beltre) would revitalize the offense?
I am worried that an offense that currently is Justin Smoak and a bunch of .600 OPS bats simply has too many holes to be relied upon ... even to generate 3 runs a game on a consistent basis. There are too many holes. And trying to put a bandaid on that reality could cost the club ANOTHER 5 years of suckitude.
You CAN help your team with non-homegrown players. The Mariners got the #5 hitter they needed with Jay Buhner. The Rangers gave up a great pitcher for Josh Hamilton and that turned out all right over the past few years.
It's just usually a multi-year thing. Trading for guys at the deadline who are due to be free-agents and hoping they'll re-sign with your team can be problematic. RJ wanted to go to AZ. Lee went back to Philly. It's not impossible to get extra mileage out of your deadline trade, but I prefer multi-year situations if I'm gonna give up that much for a player.
I mean if it's 3-4 prospects for 3 months of a player or 4-5 for 1.5-3 years, then give me the extra years and take another prospect.
But again, it depends on need, and your belief in your minor leaguers already in the pipeline vs. what you're willing to trade.
I believe Ackley will be a plus offensive 2B with a good enough glove to stick. I believe the same about Franklin at SS, but he's years away IMO. I believe Seager will have a decent ML career as a utility guy who gets to start for a few years.
Do I believe Tenbrink, Liddi, Peguero, Wilson, Mangini, Almonte, Raben, et al will be plus contributors over long careers? No.
So the idea of home-growing your hitters is great, but if there's a gap in your system - say, you don't have a thumping OF/DH type you believe in - then IMO it's perfectly valid to go add that guy via trade or FA. That's not a band-aid, that's a fix.
I hope we add Rendon via the draft, but with or without him the lineups still a little light on thump. Ackley will bring the OBP, doubles, and wheels on the basepaths, but power will take a minute. And yes I know he's hit more HRs on the season than Smoak, and I think his power potential is bigger than people give him credit for.
I'm finding Schaffer fascinating this season as a Jacque Jones-esque hitter. But that's cute, and interesting, and nice in a vacuum - and does not help me put together next year's team that can win it all.
If Poythress comes through as a legit hitter, or Peguero, or whomever, and I've blocked them off with a plus hitter, then trade the minor leaguer for a spot I do need filled.
Catcher, maybe?
But as much as I don't want to bet that the Mariners can come through this year and give away valuable trade pieces on that shaky premise, I also don't just sit on my hands and hope that a genie will bring me enough internally-produced hitting to fix the offense before The Felix Years expire.
Especially if we draft a first-round arm in 2 weeks.
So I'm especially curious to see what mix of buyers and sellers we are in July. We could do either and help our 2012 club and beyond.
~G
Team ERA: 2.83
And before you scoff and mention the era as a correcting factor...those Orioles allowed 517 runs in a league that averaged allowing 4.09 runs per game per side...the AL run/G right now is 4.22. SCORING IS DOWN...our paradigm needs to shift to accomodate that.
ERA+ AL standing:
1 OAK 137
2T LAA 112
4T SEA 109
4T TEX 109
OPS+ AL standing
6 LAA 103
7T TEX 102 (dropping fast, but both Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz activated today)
12 SEA 84
13 OAK 83
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We can pitch with these guys (add Shawn Kelley and potentially Lueke), but the other guys have good pitching, too (even if not as deep).
We can't hit with these guys (even adding Guti and Ackley).
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Upgrade to mediocrity wherever we can? Yes.
Upgrade to mediocrity at LF/DH? No. Not enough. There needs to be a plus bat at one of those spots. There aren't enough places on the diamond to add hitters. /cosign with G on that.
Do I overpay for 1.5 years of Andre Ethier? Not in an ideal world, but: OPS+ of 132, 131, 134, 130; RC/27 of 7.4, 6.2, 6.5, 6.1. It doesn't have to be Ethier, but it does have to be someone who can produce consistently with the bat.
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This is not just an 2011 thing. The team needs another consistent hitter, period. But if we can get one on board while Pineda is hot and Bedard is healthy -- go with it. 2011 and 2012 are windows of opportunity now. We thought 2013 and 2014 would be, and hopefully they will be, but that's actually less certain now than the current window.
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MWilson and CPeguero are cool and all, and more power to them, but to expect consistent major-league production from either of them is folly. These types of guys may work out, but they usually don't, and buying a lottery ticket is not a retirement plan.
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That being said, I do not consider trading any prospect that I consider a "high percentage shot" unless that guy has an unlikely MLB future (as in, stuck behind Justin Smoak). The need to keep building with youth is more important. But other GMs might like the look of Alex Liddi's SLG more than we interdweebs do. No harm in finding out.
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Sure, chances are it's not going to be Ethier, but there's no reason not to target him. And if you can't get someone that fits what you need, then keep your powder dry. But you need to fill that vacancy at some point. No reason not to start looking now.
I've NEVER argued that you don't need or cannot use FAs or trades for need.
My argument is that you cannot succeed by STARTING your lineup with FAs.
Today, the Ms "foundation" of everyday players is Smoak and nobody ... and Smoak has been here about 14 minutes. He's not "truly" homegrown - (but Seattle *IS* his first real MLB success - so he's not a mercenary).
*IF* Guti bounces back from his health issues, include him in the 'Smoak'-esque foundation piece. But, that's a significant 'if' at the moment.
Heck, even the Yankees, when they got too trade happy had a lull. Today, in addition to the long-timers (Jeter, Posada, Rivera), they've got Gardner and Cano who are Yankee-only players.
Since 2004, Safeco has taken the blame for the horrid FA performances in Seattle. I think that is in error. I think the reality is that the bulk of the FAs were "mercenaries", who could really care less whether Seattle succeeds or fails. They were only on board to get a paycheck. When Guti arrived - he was there to *PLAY* every day -- (something he didn't get a chance to do in Cleveland). Same with Branyan. But the "full time" imports ... (blech!)
Figgins is only the latest in a long line of "oh well, guess I'll take my money and leave" FA signings.
If the club is *EVER* going to "let the kids play" is it ever going to be a better opportunity than 2011? The vet CF was out for a month - allowing you to play your good-glove potential LF on a daily basis. When the vet LF was tepid, you cut him. Now, you've still got a tepid DH, and 3-4 young guys (Saunders, Peguero, M.Wilson and Carp) that you might give ABs to. If you go out and "buy" a big bat, you slam the door on somebody. You also send the message *AGAIN* that unless you're a top 10 prospect, Seattle doesn't really care - they're just going to run back to the FA well next year, too.
Seattle opted to trade Asdrubal Cabrerra for the 36-year-old Eduardo Perez in 2006. Cleveland suffered through AC's growing pains - and today have a 25-year old MI with an .885 OPS and 9 HRs already this season. Choo was traded for Ben Broussard.
Those 2006 trades were made after an 18-8 June had pushed the club over .500. Of course, June included a bunch of interleague games, (the club would go 14-4 in interleague play in 2006, btw). But, June was the only month with a winning record for the club.
Here is the offensive OPS and the defensive ERA for the first three months of 2006:
Mos. -- OPS - ERA - (pOPS)
April - .704 -- 4.58 - .792
May - .717 --4.87 -- .740
June - .841 - 3.60 - .730
Given those three months of data, which data is the outlier? The SP OPS had gone .788; .784; .730 over the first three months. The assumption was made that the rotation had "come into its own". The next three month, the rotation OPS was: .839; .798; .840
Mind you, I would normally accept the premise that an 18-8 month is a MUCH better indicator of "true" improvement rather than just an abberation (than say, a 9-9 months, like the current May).
But, an honest assessment of the talent on that 2006 team would've indicated a club that was "average" at best, offensively ... with an erratic, unreliable rotation, a decent bullpen, and questionable defense, (especially up the middle).
Now, that club didn't get a "big bat" for their trades. They had a bunch of 100 (ish) OPS+ players on offense. But, that club finished 15 back and -36 in run differential. But, who were the home grown core of that team? Lopez, Yuni and Reed ... the 3 worst hitters in the lineup.
But, the choice to "go for it" cost the club Cabrerra and Choo.
Treating the 2011 rotation as exceptional is fine. Treating the 2.09 ERA for the month of May as an expectation of the rest of the year is not. After a 3.95 ERA for April, the club has a cumulative 2.47 ERA for May. And yet, they are only 9-9. If the rotation is posting a 2.47 ERA for 18 games and is *ONLY* 9-9 that is not confirmation the club is actually a .500 team -- it is a condemnation of an offense that is inept.
When you're getting Bob Gibson starting for 18 games, you should be going 16-2 or 14-4 ... not 9-9.
Point well taken Sandy .... that if we've subconsciously bought into the idea that the M's rotation has now hit its stride, and is going to rip off 8 IP, 1 ER starts from here to the horizon ... well, we're buying into a hot streak...
Just the same, the M's don't have to play .850 ball, either, which is what they've been doing under the Lockdown streak... .550 would do quite nicely :- )
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The M's have to add hitting, a lot of it, if they want to win anything. M's fans can't think that this club is ready to roll, agreed.
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...but...I don't think we're that far off...and no I'm not basing that on the numbers from the 9 game streak. I'm basing it on the team's attitude and the likelihood that some of our offensive trouble spots are already improving.
Your assessments of the real M's have been on a hot roll there, dude. Like your SSI roto team.
I will NEVER forgive you for taking that Pineda draft-day fastball out of the catcher's mitt down the line.
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There's some possibility that the M's will get the offense they need out of the minors. I'd hate to count on it, but you can't discount it, I guess...
:daps:
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Doc, last week I heard Ryan Divish on the radio saying that Pineda is working on a two-seam fastball but isn't yet comfortable using it in games yet. The first few innings of Pineda's last start looked like he was using it. The pitch that caught Olivo's wrist was the most obvious of those pitches. But there were quite a few 93 mile an hour pitches that didn't have his typical control.
Personally I'd prefer his to stay with the 4 seamer since he can spot it so well.
But without League earning losses in 4 straight appearances (3 straight BS and a blown tie) we're at 13-5 for the month and a couple games into first place.
I agree with home-growing a core...but we ARE. Pitchers are a core too and 4 of the 5 starters are either home-grown or still under club control and found their success here.
The Giants have a home-grown rotation and a couple of home bats, the most key of which is Posey.
If we put Felix, Pineda, Fister and Vargas out there as essentially home-grown rotation arms, and Smoak, Ackley and Guti (not home-grown but not a mercenary, as you say) as #2, #3 and #6 bats, AND we're looking to add the #2 pick for either an arm or a bat ALSO homegrown for the 2013 season...
How much more home-growing do you expect before we're allowed to start buying assistance? Ackley, Smoak and even Guti are worlds better than the home-grown hitters of the 2006 team. I would love to have the hitting prospects reaching the big club that the Royals do, but we haven't sucked as consistently as they have sucked, had terrible talent assessors, and we have only had 3 drafts and offseasons to try to make up the lack.
I'm as big a proponent of using the farm system as you're likely to find, but we can't spin straw into gold - or at least not just by promoting the straw. Jack has traded a lot of straw to try to get gold, and has nailed it on a couple of occasions.
If the players in your minors have value now that you do not believe is sustainable, then you HAVE to trade them while they still have that value. I would have bailed on Clement ages before we did, traded him to some team that didn't know him as well.
If Tyson Gillies is never gonna make your big-league team as anything other than a reserve, and Aumont is several fixes and several years away at best, and you think JCR is a headcase with a fastball he'll never take advantage of, don't you WANT to package them for the best pitcher in the league (that you then flip for the biggest bat in your lineup)?
If you don't, and Gillies gets broken and Aumont gets demoted and JCR has a decent-but-not great year, you sure aren't getting that value next year.
Saving the best of our system for ourselves is terrific. Home-growing the lineup is the gold standard for how to compete (though it still hasn't helped the Brewers).
But if the system has a lot of 4th outfielders and mediocre 1B/DH guys, and someone will give you something you NEED for them, then I don't care if I haven't grown enough bats for myself from my own system, I'll buy my need with my minor league extras.
That was a perfect storm week...I had NINE starts in a week...and I got wins in 7 of them. And 3 saves and two holds...and a bullpen win...LOL I also got 8 QS out of 9...which is hilarious. My team is pitching-heavy...my offense sucks...I won't be winning in the post-season unless I happen to catch another 9-start week. :)
It actually goes further than that...the Mariners are showing loyalty to a ton of fringe pitching prospects and they ARE giving their fringey hitters chances here and there, as any team should. Peguero, Wilson, Carp...they're fringey prospects...they might have value...and they're going to get their shots...whether or not we trade for another bat (because, chances are, some of them will be in trades for a bat and the rest can be role players or plug other holes). Our bullpen has journeymen in crucial roles, our totation is filled with long-shot prospects growing into a wonderful synergy of excellence, our line-up has Smoak and soon Ackley and Gutierrez and Ichiro is as long-timerish as you'll ever see in Seattle...and then you've got the high probability that at least two of the Peguero/Wilson/Carp group will get significant PT here whether or not we make a trade. This *IS* a home grown ballclub...a success story (if they play over .500 and at least show they're a competitive force in coming seasons) built on prospecting and player development...not on free agent acquisitions. So...I fail to see how all of that is affected if we trade some surplus for production we can use today.
Baker asked Wedge about the velocity. Here's what he got:
"He was anywhere from 90 to 98,'' Wedge said. "I think what he's doing is just getting a feel for pitching. We've seen Felix (Hernandez) do it. When he needed to reach back and get it, he did. But if there were any truth to that (diminished velocity) I would probably point to the National League portion of it. Having to hit, be on the basepaths, this that and the other. But I still saw him reaching back -- even in that last inning -- and hitting 95, 96.''
LOL - if they can teach Pineda their cutter, then Katy-bar-the-door. Add that cutter to his 4-seamer and slider and...
...for the stretch run (assuming he'd sign off on the trade). Cost? Our blocked AA second baseman, apparently. Oh, AND we get a chunk of change.
http://espn.go.com/blog/SweetSpot/post/_/id/11381/five-trades-that-need-...
Mets trade Carlos Beltran and $5 million to the Mariners for 2B Kyle Seager.
Considering genius Fred Wilpon just torpeded Beltran's value by suggesting he's not close to the player he used to be, the Mets can't expect a top prospect in return for their right fielder, a free agent after the season. Plus, his $18.5 million contract is a problem for most teams. The Mariners' current hot streak (granted, it's come against the punchless Twins and Padres) suddenly put them in the thick of the AL West race despite their offensive struggles. Designated hitter Jack Cust just hit his first home run and Carlos Peguero and Mike Wilson are hardly the short-term (or long-term) solutions in left field. Beltran could play left and DH, and Seattle has the ability to pick up some additional payroll. (Beltran would have to waive his no-trade clause.)
Seager was a teammate of Dustin Ackley's at North Carolina, but with Ackley set as Seattle's second baseman of the future, he doesn't have a spot. After hitting .345 with 40 doubles and 14 home runs in the California League, he's proving himself in the tough transition to Double-A, hitting .302/.371/.477. He has a nice line-drive stroke, although there are some doubts about his range. Then again, this is a team playing Daniel Murphy at second base.
.900 OPS outfielder for a blocked player? If we wanted to "go for it" this year, there are far worse players to add than Beltran, who has name cache to bring fans and inspire players, to go with tremendous performance in every year but last year. Also, he's a switch-hitter so Safeco wouldn't hurt him.
We can't offer him arb per his contract (so no picks for him in FA to offset the prospect(s) going out for him) but Beltran is a terrific player and a good-fielding LF even if he is no longer a CF. That solves Taro's problem with putting a poor fielder in left as well.
So: who would take a Carlos-Beltran-for-Kyle-Seager trade to make a run this year? He's instantly the second best hitter on the team...if not the best.
It blocks Peguero/Wilson in LF, but there's room DH if we decide not to go with Cust for the 2nd half.
Just curious. I think Seager is becoming a more valuable chip every day and that the Twins would want some pitching (Wilhelmsen?) but it's hard to argue with spending one decent piece that will likely never play for you in return for 4 months of a serious pennant chase.
He's not exactly Ben Broussard...but is he the guy you want?
~G
That is the best case scenario. Great news.
Indeed you see this evolution with all of them - Clemens, Seaver, now Felix and Verlander - and for Pineda to be going to it after 8 starts in the bigs (!!) - it's like Mozart composing at age 6 or whatever. It really is.
You add to that a few of the peripheral circumstances and we can /cosign 100% on Wedge's for-public-consumption answer.
Going foward, Pineda would have some games in which he averages 96+ and other games in which he dinks around with two-seamers and virtuoso painting.
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Got a POTD on him.
What's your take, G?
Ghost, what's your guess as to what the Mets are thinking? They just said today that they're going to cashflow -$70M this year.
He's still a real good hitter, bats both ways, and definitely can handle left field. He'd be a HUGE upgrade, and again it would just be a matter of the M's tapping their bloated checking account. He's just about the perfect guy for the M's to get mid-season and getting him wouldn't hinder their ability to make big moves in December.
You see this happen from time to time...you get an owner who loses his patience with his team...then loses his temper...and in NYC, that kidn of thing is going to get into the tabloids and lead to embarrassing quotes... A modest prediction...if the Mets trade anyone, it will be for far below market value...which means the Mets won't trade anyone.
