About 10 years ago I did a 'study' on relievers. I went through every primary closer (all 30) for every club and took a gander at their blown saves. What I found?
Almost every closer around tends to blow saves in bunches. Rivera blew two recently, (I know this because he's on my fantasy team, and had I NOT known this fact, I would've been really afraid that he'd hit the age wall).
Is this a reason not to swap out League? Not really. There isn't a 'magic' formula for blowing saves in consecutive appearances and determining a closer is 'done'. BUT ... as much as I love Doc's analysis, it seems to me in this case, we are looking WAY too close at the bark while missing the 40 acres on fire.
League is NOT blowing saves due to pitch selection. Doc noted that 100% of his saves recorded were while throwing these "100% predictable" patterns.
League is blowing saves for one simple reason. And it's the reason 90% of saves are blown. The pitcher is not EXECUTING his pitch. I'm more than happy to listen to the conceptual strategies and tactics of pitch selection for SPs. You have to face the same 9 guys 4 times ... you *HAVE* to be adaptive.
But, the vast majority of WORLD CLASS closers in the history of the game had *ONE* pitch. The argument that Rivera blew two saves because hitters knew his cutter was coming is the exact same argument that LEague is blowing saves because they know the FB is coming.
I think I can say with 100% certainty that when you plunk back-to-back hitters, the problem was NOT pitch "selection". Whether League throws the FB down the pipe or throws his slider down the pipe ... the key piece of data is NOT "slider" or "fastball". The key piece of data is "down-the-pipe".
And this is why closers tend to bunch their blown saves. Because, just like all MLB players, closers "lose the groove" from time to time. And for most, the 'doldrums' tend to hang around for 7-14 days. How many saves blown is mostly a factor of save opportunities available during the triple-dip biorhythm.
Seattle is in a nasty quandary -- 4 pitchers ALL throwing great at the same time. History says they are ALL due for a bad spell. So, throwing Wright in could work. Or, he could blow a couple, (which would get BLAMED on the change in job ... though he could just as easily melt down in the 6th).
Ultimately, the bullpen quartet went 38 team games before ANY allowed a HR. That's frankly astounding. But, it's also a warning sign, because even HoF closers give up about a HR a month.
The one "long term" issue with regard to closer changes. If your closer hook is "too quick" on the first guy, then you create the foundation that the next guy is going to be adding pressure to himself (beyond normal levels) as soon as he blows his first save. Not helpful ... (but mostly a non-issue, since the best closers are neurotics who really dont' give a flip about stuff like that).
What would I do? I'd stick with League -- (maybe skip one save situation, just as an extra day of rest thing - but don't remove him from the 'job') -- and hope he recovers and saves a few between now and the deadline. Once upon a time, Aardsma was the #1 hope for a body that could be moved for more prospects. At this point, League is a possible, *IF* he can prove that he can recover from this bump in the road. I don't see any other BP arm having anything close to closer trade value. GMs "like" hard throwing closer types for deadline bullpen upgrades, (even when shopping for 'setup' guys).
Q. Time to bail on the M's season?
A. On your feet, soldier.
With the Angels losing tonight, the M's remain only -5 back with 120+ games to play. Time to play better, is what time it is.
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Q. Was League's Sasaki Syndrome to blame for this one?
A. To be fair, two of the three death blows were delivered on Non-Syndrome Counts.
True, League threw 13 pitches, of which all 13 were consistent with The Book on him. 13-for-13.
But the first double, and the walkoff home run, were on 1-1 and 0-1 counts, the two counts on which League has been less predictable. In fairness, we've got to point that fact out.
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Q. So what was the problemo?
A. Two things, in my estimation:
1) As SSI emphasized at the time, League was getting a lot of his earlier saves by mowing through the 6-7-8 hitters -- after Jamey Wright had dealt with the heavy lumber already.
But Friday, League faced five (5) very tough LHB's in a row:
- LH Brantley
- LH ACab
- LH Choo
- LH Santana
- LH Hafner
The earlier 9-for-9 left us ... actually me ... overconfident. Not many of those saves had been achieved against this kind of firepower.
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2) Also ... ahem....
One needs only a very small adjustment to SSI's "Sasaki Syndrome" theorem in order to ---- > infer that the Indians still had his pitches on Friday.
"Don't worry about his split until you have two strikes" would be that small adjustment.
"He'll give you a nice straight outside FB, twice an AB" would be another inferred Attack Mode that the Indians may have been using Friday.
League loves the waist-high, outside fastball -- loves it way too much, will throw it if he gets any excuse to do so. That slightly more-complex idea requires only a minor refinement to the simple ball-and-strike count Book.
.......
Brantley loaded up and put a batting-practice swing on an outside 1-1 fastball and crushed it the other way -- all the way to the LF wall.
ACab loaded up and put a batting-practice swing on an outside, 0-0 FB and crushed it the other way -- all the way to the LF wall.
Hafner loaded up and put a batting-practice swing on an outside, 0-1 FB and crushed it the other way -- all the way over the CF fence.
So although two of these blows didn't conform simply to the pregame pitch-count tendencies? We hope you won't consider us stubborn if we protest that, again, the basic problem was that the Indians were expecting League's pitches.
Why do you suppose the Indians' big lefties were taking all these outside fastballs the other way so comfortably? You don't suppose they were ready for the locations, do you?
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Q. That's 4 losses for League this week?
A. SSI could cheekily point out that the M's might be 21-20 right now, if they had --- > pro-actively addressed League's predictability before he started losing.
The information was there, we know that....
Four late losses this week, and you're 16-23. What's your record if you don't blow those games? What does the season feel like if you're 21-20? And it probably would be, had League been a little more sophisticated about his approach.
If you and I can see what League is doing, what about enemy org's armed to the teeth with game data that is far superior to ours?
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Q. Would SSI swap League out?
A. It would, yes.
Not because it is angry at League. Not out of frustration, and not out of panic.
SSI would swap League out right now because
- Of the swings that people are taking on him
- Of the very real chance that the league has "booked" him (realllllll good, too)
- The ballclub needs a re-set
- League needs a re-set
SSI's original suggestion was Wright to set up and Pauley to close.
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Q. Could Pauley close?
A. Generally, any vet who stays calm and throws Strike One can "close," because "closing" is basically an easy thing to do -- if you remove the psychological element.
Pauley's first-strike % is down this year, although historically it's real high. So that's a complicating factor.
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Q. Why not Wright to close, if he's better than Pauley?
A. Wright needs to put out the fires (in the 7th and 8th) because he's better than Pauley.
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Q. Any less-drastic solutions you propose?
A. Yeah, you could go "closer-by-committee" and make sure that League doesn't face the heart of the lineup.
Rein in your ambition with League, pick-and-choose his matchups, while letting Wright (and Pauley) do the heavy lifting for awhile.
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Q. What else in the pen?
A. Royce Ring has an ugly fastball, but he's got 16 strikeouts, 3 walks and 0 homers in ten innings at AAA.
A LOOGY -- a real LOOGY -- would probably help. He probably would have won the game Friday.
Scott Patterson is on one whale of a roll and SSI would /cosign on making him 11th man, letting him get his feet under him, and seeing if he couldn't contribute in the late innings, say, a month from now.
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One thing I'd be taking a REAL good look at, if I were the M's. And that is mixing-and-matching my hitter matchups in the late innings.
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BABVA,
Dr D
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Comments
Saith Geoff .... er, Larry Stone,
I'd expect League to keep his job ultimately, but he probably needs some down time to work on things. I've heard rumblings that he might be tipping his pitches.
Here's the question. What would be wrong with League tipping his pitches?
Let's say that, Sunday, Brandon League held his glove waist-high for a fastball, and letter-high for a splitter. Why should "the rumblings" out of Seattle care?
Just throw the first-pitch fastball in the right spot. That's all.
Does tipping, like, make it easier to hit or something? Why?
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Is that closers can go a week without their real good command. That would be an interesting formal "study," whether closers blow saves in bunches, and I'll bet they do.
...........
But Sandy, did you see the locations of the pitches that the Indians crushed? They're on GameDay. Check it out. He couldn't have handed the ball to the catcher in better locations.
Did you physically watch the swings that the Indians took on those pitches, their timing, their force?
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That was Larry Stone.
Thanks SSI for co-signing for SP. Hopefully now that he is back at AAA he can pick up where he left off last year and continues his roll from AA this year. I'm pulling for the guy. If he can put it all together, it is time he gets his shot at the Majors.
Wiffle Ball anyone? Game on!
Go get em Scott.